Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane Near Border With Syria

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
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That is a big risk for Turkey is it not?

I don't think so. A major conflict with Turkey nets the Russians nothing in the end and they can't be steamrolled like the Ukrainians since the Turks have a modern, functional military equipped with advanced US and EU weapon systems. There is simply no benefit in it and a lot of potential cost.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
Its another thing to shoot down a SU-24 reconnaissance plain that wasn't expecting to be shoot by an air target in the first place and another thing to play against SU-27/33/34 etc etc

The Turks have a few hundred fighters of their own, signifiant surface to air capability, US supplied command and control, etc. The US and EU would of course resupply them with whatever they needed in the event of such a conflict.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
The Turks have a few hundred fighters of their own, signifiant surface to air capability, US supplied command and control, etc. The US and EU would of course resupply them with whatever they needed in the event of such a conflict.

No matter what they have, and im telling you i know very well what they have, they are not a match for the Russians. But, as i have said before there is not going to be a conflict between the two, at least not now.
Russia goal is to sustain Assad in power and keep ISIS and anyone else that have an eye in to Syria territory away.
They may retaliate in another way, financially most probable.
 

5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
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0
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www.techinferno.com
Money is what drives the world, nothing will come of this incident as Russia is already reeling from the sanctions and won't want to lose even more money. I doubt Putin wants to bring back Soviet era soup lines by chipping away further at an already weakened Russian economy: http://news.yahoo.com/factbox-russia-turkey-economic-trade-relations-170327788.html

- Turkey commissioned Russia's state-owned Rosatom in 2013 to build four 1,200-megawatt reactors in a project worth $20 billion.

- Turkey together with Egypt is the largest buyer of Russian wheat. It bought 4.1 million tonnes of Russian wheat in the previous marketing year, which ended on June 30.

- Russia also supplies oil and oil products to Turkey. Russia was its fourth-largest supplier in 2013, according to the Russian embassy in Turkey www.turkey.mid.ru.

- Turkey is the second-largest buyer of Russian natural gas after Germany. Russia is Turkey's largest natural gas supplier, with Ankara buying 28-30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of its 50 bcm of natural gas needs annually from Russia.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
No matter what they have, and im telling you i know very well what they have, they are not a match for the Russians. But, as i have said before there is not going to be a conflict between the two, at least not now.
Russia goal is to sustain Assad in power and keep ISIS and anyone else that have an eye in to Syria territory away.
They may retaliate in another way, financially most probable.

Turkey has NATO, which would be compelled to respond if Russia actually got in a shooting air war with them. Russia wouldn't stand a chance.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
No matter what they have, and im telling you i know very well what they have, they are not a match for the Russians. But, as i have said before there is not going to be a conflict between the two, at least not now.
Russia goal is to sustain Assad in power and keep ISIS and anyone else that have an eye in to Syria territory away.
They may retaliate in another way, financially most probable.

Russia only engages when the balance of force is decidedly in their favor. This would not be the case here. Also, Russia can't afford to retaliate economically against anyone right now.
 

maddogchen

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2004
8,905
2
76
I didn't see this posted, but I may have missed it.

Seems like the Russian pilot survived and was rescued. And the article has a very good map of where the Turks say the plane flew and where the Russians say the plane flew. Notice that the crash sites are different. Wouldn't it be easy to go to the crash site and verify which one it was at? I'm not sure why there are two green lines for the Turkish version...


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34925229
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Also, Russia can't afford to retaliate economically against anyone right now.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34925229

Russians have been advised not to visit Turkey - a popular tourist destination for Russians - and one of Russia's largest tour operators, Natali Tours, has suspended package holidays there.
There have been loud calls in Russia for economic sanctions and for all flights to Turkey to be cancelled, the BBC's Moscow correspondent, Sarah Rainsford, reports.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
None of which really refutes what I said. Their economy is shrinking and they're torching through their foreign currency reserves. With oil prices in the dumper and sanctions unlikely to be lifted this situation is not going to improve. Cutting off a significant source of hard cash, like Turkey, would essentially be suicide at this point.


Sometimes nationalism comes before economy. It all depends on where the russian people are with this.
 

Magic Carpet

Diamond Member
Oct 2, 2011
3,477
232
106
Russia only engages when the balance of force is decidedly in their favor.
The United States are no different.

Sometimes nationalism comes before economy. It all depends on where the russian people are with this.
Pretty much. And there seems to be no disconnect between the Russian leadership and the regular people.

Google Translation:
By Infomatsiya ticket aggregators Russian tourists quickly started to "vote ruble" against Turkey. Returns previously purchased tickets reach 20%. In particular, reported by the CEO of the agency Ticket Pososhok.ru Cyril Faminskii. "On the evening of November 24, we fix a serious increase in applications for voluntary return flight to Turkey from independent travelers - now it is about 20% of sales over the past five days," - was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti. The expert notes that after the crash in Egypt this "enthusiasm" was not observed. Source.

20% of the Russians planning to go to Turkey have already revoked their flight tickets and that's just the beginning for the former Ottoman empire.
 
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5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
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And so it begins: http://news.yahoo.com/heavy-russia-raids-syria-area-where-plane-downed-003111296.html

Warplanes believed to be Russian also carried out strikes near the Turkish border in northern Aleppo province, killing at least three people and setting alight several trucks carrying aid and goods for sale, the monitor and activists said.

The monitor and local Syrian activist Maamun al-Khatieb reported three people killed in the strikes, which also set fire to several trucks parked in a lot not far from the crossing.

"Three people have been killed and six injured, most of them are truck drivers," Khatieb told AFP.

He said the trucks were carrying aid and goods for sale, and were parked in a lot where vehicles gather after crossing the border, around three kilometres (1.8 miles) away.

I don't think Turkey will react, they'll probably get their Turkmen to cross into Turkish territory for now while the Russians let out some PR fume.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
Sometimes nationalism comes before economy. It all depends on where the russian people are with this.

The only way to inflict signifiant economic damage on the Turks would be to halt natural gas supplies, which won't happen given the leverage they have to stop Russian exports from the Black Sea and Russia's desperate need for cash. There will be some nibbling around the edges in tourism and foodstuffs but that will be it economically.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
Turkey has NATO, which would be compelled to respond if Russia actually got in a shooting air war with them. Russia wouldn't stand a chance.

You are fucking nuts. Russia has nukes. America will not get in a shooting war with Russia unless it has a death wish for the entire planet.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
Ok so they sell them oil and stop selling mil stuff and wait for the right time. I think we will see a Turk f16 get dropped the second it crosses into Syrian space.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I take it your mind is unable to comprehend 2 way streets?

NATO will not go to war because a few Turkish planes acting aggressively get shot down by Russia after they've shot down a Russian plane. There is no political will for it. They will have a stern press release though.
 
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