U.S. Adds 295,000 Jobs In February; Unemployment Rate Falls To 5.5 Percent

[fskimospy]

The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment

For those of you wearing blinders, we now return you to your regularly scheduled circle-jerk, already in progress.

This was discussed a number of months ago. That article is retarded clickbait.

The BLS reports 6 different measures of unemployment every month, including measures accounting for exactly those people he claims the government is lying to you about. Moreover, including all those people that he talks about might be even more misleading than excluding them. (he assumes that everyone who has stopped looking for work for more than a month wants work) There's a reason why the BLS reports 6 different measures of unemployment.

In short, he's pretending U1, U2, U4, U5, and U6 somehow aren't reported on every month and he's pretending that U6 is a better measure of real unemployment than U3 when there's no particular reason to think so. (it all depends on what you want to look at.)

In short: he's talking out of his ass.

 

[Jhhnn]

Is the job situation better then under the last Republican President?

Employment rates are always high during unsustainable economic bubbles, the ownership society being the greatest among them since the 1920's.

 

[TheSlamma]

This seems pretty unlikely. Do you have a (ballpark) idea on when you think we're going to have some sort of crash? One year? Five years?

I don't know how old you are so I'm not sure if you remember the late 90's bubble well but in the late 90's people felt the economy then was also "unstoppable" and 1999 and 2000 came along and it really all went away.

2009 was the same thing, "houses can't possibly go down in price".

It seems like about every 5-10 years we get to a point where we think we found the next thing that is just going to take us all the way to retirement and then it makes a "correction" and people can't figure out why they didn't see it coming, they were too busy enjoying the spoils.

If we have an economist in these forums I'd love them to explain to me how it's possible for my house to be appraised for $100,000 more than it was last December (no this isn't Zestimates, this is an actual appraisal. Oh and who is affording that? or are they just getting ARM's and low down payment mortgages yet again.

I don't have a date for you on when it crashes, but I truly feel what we have now has no real foundation under it just like the last bubbles and I think it's gonna pop and leave many people underwater on overpriced houses and jobs that companies will just get rid of again.

 

[Newell Steamer]

Yeah,.. well,.. it ain't 295,035,.. now is it?

 

[fskimospy]

I don't know how old you are so I'm not sure if you remember the late 90's bubble well but in the late 90's people felt the economy then was also "unstoppable" and 1999 and 2000 came along and it really all went away.

2009 was the same thing, "houses can't possibly go down in price".

It seems like about every 5-10 years we get to a point where we think we found the next thing that is just going to take us all the way to retirement and then it makes a "correction" and people can't figure out why they didn't see it coming, they were too busy enjoying the spoils.

If we have an economist in these forums I'd love them to explain to me how it's possible for my house to be appraised for $100,000 more than it was last December (no this isn't Zestimates, this is an actual appraisal. Oh and who is affording that? or are they just getting ARM's and low down payment mortgages yet again.

I don't have a date for you on when it crashes, but I truly feel what we have now has no real foundation under it just like the last bubbles and I think it's gonna pop and leave many people underwater on overpriced houses and jobs that companies will just get rid of again.

I'm 34, so I remember them both and it's hard to see how our current circumstances are related to them. Housing prices haven't seen anything like the meteoric rise they saw before, ARMs and low down payment mortgages weren't the cause of the last financial crisis, etc.

The reason why your house has appreciated by (my guess!) something like 25-30% over the last two months is that it is a significant outlier from nationwide housing price trends by several orders of magnitude.

 

[Jhhnn]

Just don't mind the 35.4% of American that need welfare to survive. 109,000,000 people who can't feed themselves. That is great news!
http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/354-percent-109631000-welfare

Pretty pictures are fun:

Your "unemployment rate" is just a made up, fudged number and you are a shill.

You are exceptionally good at holding contradictory beliefs to all be true at the same time.

The welfare state is the direct result of trickle down economics applied for over 30 years.

Unions? Gone. Pensions? Gone. Offshoring? Rampant. Automation? More every day. Fat cat tax cuts & dodges? A thing of beauty for the Job Creators. If burger creators did as good a job, they'd get fired.

Reaganomics broke down the New Deal relationship between the Elite & the Workers. They used to need us, & now they don't. We've been dumped like a frumpy middle aged wife.

Our financial elite is no longer "American" in the traditional sense- they're international & we're just another target economy, ripe for looting.

 

[TheSlamma]

I'm 34, so I remember them both and it's hard to see how our current circumstances are related to them. Housing prices haven't seen anything like the meteoric rise they saw before, ARMs and low down payment mortgages weren't the cause of the last financial crisis, etc.

The reason why your house has appreciated by (my guess!) something like 25-30% over the last two months is that it is a significant outlier from nationwide housing price trends by several orders of magnitude.

Sorry I meant December 2013 so not 2 months but 14, but I still don't see it as being correct and it's an overinflated price.

My problem with the ARM's and the low down payments is it leaves people with payments they cannot possibly afford if they lose their job or there is a correction as they probably shouldn't be buying that place in the first place. I actually think the 2009 mortgage crisis would have not had near the repercussions it did if there were not so many people running around enjoying the spoils that never made sense int he first place but of course now it does in everyones rear 20/20.

 

[Bowfinger]

The labor participation rate only counts those those between 16 and 64, so a demographic surge (like the baby boomers) would not impact it.

A more likely interpretation is greater number of women entering the workforce.

That's a good point. As Eskimspy notes, it's not just the number of boomers, but also the boomer lifestyle. Many aren't waiting until 65 to retire.

I also agree that women entering the workforce was a significant factor in the rising participation rate.

 

[LTC8K6]

I would guess that cutting off Unemployment Benefits has something to do with the unemployment rate.

 

[LTC8K6]

Is the job situation better then under the last Republican President?

IIRC, 5.5% unemployment was horrible back then.

 

[Jaskalas]

But the poverty rate is going up:

Oh but that's right. You don't care about reality or people. Only defending your Dear Leader.

You are a shill.

In his defense, and I don't know how it came to this but... I'm sure Eskimospy supports raising the minimum wage. That would help people in poverty.

 

[jhbball]

Well your "shill test" couldn't test for a shill.



So there is no point in answering it.


You shill.

What does that make you? A ignorant piece of shit? PS Move out of my city.

 

[Belegost]

Sorry I meant December 2013 so not 2 months but 14, but I still don't see it as being correct and it's an overinflated price.

My problem with the ARM's and the low down payments is it leaves people with payments they cannot possibly afford if they lose their job or there is a correction as they probably shouldn't be buying that place in the first place. I actually think the 2009 mortgage crisis would have not had near the repercussions it did if there were not so many people running around enjoying the spoils that never made sense int he first place but of course now it does in everyones rear 20/20.

Prices in the area, especially the NW (Thornton, Broomfield, Westminster, and all of Boulder CO) are rising fast due to low supply. http://www.timescall.com/Business/c...-home-buyers-are-lining-up-for-less-inventory

 

[LTC8K6]

This seems to be a good look at the labor participation rate:

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali...pation-has-hovered-near-37-year-low-11-months

 

[LTC8K6]

5,650 people a day, roughly, have left the work force during Obama's time in office.

12,369,000/6 years = 2,061,500
/365 days = 5,648

It's quite a number, but what does it really mean?

 

[TheSlamma]

Prices in the area, especially the NW (Thornton, Broomfield, Westminster, and all of Boulder CO) are rising fast due to low supply. http://www.timescall.com/Business/c...-home-buyers-are-lining-up-for-less-inventory

I agree and I do get that part, but also a houses value is also based on what people can and will pay for it, how all of a sudden is my place worth $600,000 but 3 years ago it was unaffordable when it was $400,000 (The owner then had it on the market for 6 months with no sale and it's in South Park Hill 2 blocks away from Hickenloopers personal house so it's in a high desired area, people just couldn't' get the credit then or afford it). I just don't feel like anyones salaries (outside of ATOT salary) has matched that kind of inflation.

I feel like we have gotten lax again on our credit and interest rates and people are able to buy what they really should not be able to buy or could not buy before even if they were employed during those years.

 

[First]

More along the lines of I don't care to respond seriously to a shill.

lol, says foaming at the mouth shill.

 

[Belegost]

I agree and I do get that part, but also a houses value is also based on what people can and will pay for it, how all of a sudden is my place worth $600,000 but 3 years ago it was unaffordable when it was $400,000 (The owner then had it on the market for 6 months with no sale and it's in South Park Hill 2 blocks away from Hickenloopers personal house so it's in a high desired area, people just couldn't' get the credit then or afford it). I just don't feel like anyones salaries (outside of ATOT salary) has matched that kind of inflation.

I feel like we have gotten lax again on our credit and interest rates and people are able to buy what they really should not be able to buy or could not buy before even if they were employed during those years.

Hell, I rather hope you're right, I would love a nice "re-adjustment" of housing prices around here so I can snap up an investment property or two on the cheap. =)

 

[Spungo]

My problem with the ARM's and the low down payments is it leaves people with payments they cannot possibly afford

It's all caused by the fed. All of it. Here's a chart of fed rates:

They changed the interest rate from 1% to 5%? So basically that's a 400% increase in the interest rate. What did they think would happen when their policies cause a person's mortgage payments to double or triple within a few years? Their goal was to crash the market. Their goal was to cause the worst recession ever.

I won't say that I hope Janet Yellen is smarter since intelligence was never the problem. I will say that I hope Janet Yellen is slightly less evil than the previous fed chairmen.

 

[fskimospy]

It's all caused by the fed. All of it. Here's a chart of fed rates:

They changed the interest rate from 1% to 5%? So basically that's a 400% increase in the interest rate. What did they think would happen when their policies cause a person's mortgage payments to double or triple within a few years? Their goal was to crash the market. Their goal was to cause the worst recession ever.

I won't say that I hope Janet Yellen is smarter since intelligence was never the problem. I will say that I hope Janet Yellen is slightly less evil than the previous fed chairmen.

Ooh, another Fed conspiracy. How fun! Can you tell me what the Fed's goal was in causing the 'worst recession ever', specifically?

 

[Spungo]

Ooh, another Fed conspiracy. How fun! Can you tell me what the Fed's goal was in causing the 'worst recession ever', specifically?

Easy. You crash the market so you can buy the market. How's the top 1% doing right now? They have the largest share of wealth in American history. Causing the worst recession ever was a huge success.


They knowingly made mortgages double and triple in price. They knew that doing this would cause a selling panic in the real estate market as people are no longer able to afford the house they live in. They knew that people would be forced to liquidate stocks to pay their mortgages. They knew this would cause an unemployment crisis because housing is such a large percentage of the economy. They knew this would cause a banking crisis because trillions of dollars of mortgages carried on the balance sheets of banks all go into default at the same time.

All of that happened exactly as planned.
-the real estate market crashed
-the stock market crashed
-the bond market crashed
-the labor market crashed
-it causes a bank crisis

Either that or you can believe the fed is run by the most retarded people on earth and they couldn't predict any of those things. I like to assume most of the people at the fed have their grade 12, and some of them even went to community college, so they would be able to predict this kind of thing.

 

[fskimospy]

Easy. You crash the market so you can buy the market. How's the top 1% doing right now? They have the largest share of wealth in American history. Causing the worst recession ever was a huge success.


They knowingly made mortgages double and triple in price. They knew that doing this would cause a selling panic in the real estate market as people are no longer able to afford the house they live in. They knew that people would be forced to liquidate stocks to pay their mortgages. They knew this would cause an unemployment crisis because housing is such a large percentage of the economy. They knew this would cause a banking crisis because trillions of dollars of mortgages carried on the balance sheets of banks all go into default at the same time.

All of that happened exactly as planned.
-the real estate market crashed
-the stock market crashed
-the bond market crashed
-the labor market crashed
-it causes a bank crisis

Either that or you can believe the fed is run by the most retarded people on earth and they couldn't predict any of those things. I like to assume most of the people at the fed have their grade 12, and some of them even went to community college, so they would be able to predict this kind of thing.

1. It's unlikely that the 1% own more wealth in the US than at any other time in history. You're probably referring to the Oxfam report which is both potentially somewhat inaccurate and is talking about worldwide wealth.

2. ARMs comprise a relatively small fraction of the overall housing market.

3. The kind of people who generally take out ARMs are not the same people who tend to have a lot of stock holdings.

4. Rates were increased to combat high inflation at that time, not to cause some sort of banking crisis. The funny thing is this is about the only part of this whole picture that would make sense for the 1% to be worried about, because as we've discussed before the wealthy HATE inflation because it helps the poor (creditors).

Overall, your conspiracy theory doesn't have any basis in the historical record and the analysis you're using to make it doesn't make sense on an empirical basis either. I think you're reading too much Zerohedge again, haha.

 

[Spungo]

1. It's unlikely that the 1% own more wealth in the US than at any other time in history. You're probably referring to the Oxfam report which is both potentially somewhat inaccurate and is talking about worldwide wealth.

Nope, talking about this:

Notice how it's not even the top 1%. It's the top 1% of the 1%. Guys like Warren Buffet are doing awesome. It's all due to timing the market and buying stuff when there's a major crash. Warren Buffet is able to buy stock and businesses at the bottom. People like you and I typically don't buy at the bottom; we conserve cash because we're busy worrying about losing our jobs.

2. ARMs comprise a relatively small fraction of the overall housing market.

16% have ARMs.
Some of the people with an ARM did ok, but imagine 10% of the houses in your city went on the market at the same time. It would cause a housing crash. What do you do when you have a regular mortgage with a fixed rate, but your house now has negative equity? You mail your keys to the bank and walk away. More houses on the market. More real estate crash. More keys mailed to the bank. More crash. Doing this is called a "strategic default" if you want to learn more about it.

3. The kind of people who generally take out ARMs are not the same people who tend to have a lot of stock holdings.

You can't generalize like that. Banks were advertising that people should lever up to buy stocks. They're doing that again right now actually. I've received a few offers in the mail that I should get a home equity loan and use that money to buy stocks. It's a good advertising ploy if you think about it. "It's like free money! Your home equity loan cost 3% but the S&P might go up 20% this year! Come borrow money from us and we'll make you rich!"

Of course, that's where this next graph comes in. When stocks are at or near all time highs, people tend to borrow money to buy stocks. That includes home equity loans. That includes margin loans. This also happened in the 1920s. People would borrow lots of money to buy stocks, and they would often use their house to get that loan. I still remember some of the ads during the dot com bubble when my dad watched CNBC. There would be a guy with a $50 bill saying something like "to me, this can buy $1000 of stock" and my dad would yell at the TV and say those people are nothing more than gamblers

Maybe crashing the market wasn't their #1 goal, but they certainly knew it would happen. It always happens. They seem to be more careful this time. Janet Yellen is constantly moving the goal posts. They said they would raise rates when inflation hits 2%. It hit 2%. Rates did not raise. Then they said employment was the thing to watch. Employment dropped below 6%. Rates did not go up. Now they're saying things like "considerable time" to ease the market and prevent a panic. Even talking about raising rates makes the market shake a little. Yellen seems to at least be giving it some effort to prevent a crash. I don't think she'll succeed, but I appreciate the effort.

 

[TheSlamma]

Hell, I rather hope you're right, I would love a nice "re-adjustment" of housing prices around here so I can snap up an investment property or two on the cheap. =)

That is the whole reason I paid off my mortgage, so I'm ready to buy another property when this over inflated market comes to a halt, whether it's by a bubble popping or the inventory demand being met by the massive amount of development I don't care, but I'll be snatching things up also.