U.S. Debt (Let's get real and be civilized) Opinion Thread

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Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
To get out of debt is really easy.
Manage Medicare and Medicaid better, making cuts where necessary. End tax breaks for individuals and companies who don't need them.
The biggest change required to get out of debt is to cut defense spending, zoink. Try getting that through without the cries of not supporting the troops, being weak on defense, and being a terrorist.

Did Defense Secretary Gates propose big cuts?

Cut SS/Medicare/aid? Good luck with that. AARP and the left would scream out loud "OMG, you evil people are putting grand pa and ma on the street...death panels......Wall Street bastards stealing our SS trust fund (never mind that there are no such thing as SS trust fund with any money in it)...and on and on....."
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Whether a currency of war, or general war, if it's a war, some one will die, not only us, but also you.

The Chinese currency is not freely convertible money. The money into China is easy, but when it want to go out, that's not easy. You must know, the Communist Party is the rogue, they can change the law or rule anytime. Fair play is not exist in a Communist country.

And we have a lot of U.S. debt, we can throw it anytime. So don't play a currency war.

What's China going to exchange it into? Which assets would it buy? Doing so would crush the dollar, effectively destroying China's foreign currency reserves, making the dollar tank. The dollar tanks and the Yuan goes with it, this will increase China's inflation to astronomical highs,instant hyperinflation. The only way to counter it would be to de-link the Yuan from the dollar, but the problem with that is that almost all of China's GDP is dependent on two things, housing/office construction and manufacturing. The housing/office construction is directly linked to manufacturing. The second the Yuan appreciates, and they will 100% have to, the manufacturing and construction sector blows itself up as the manufacturing arbitrage the world has effectuated is destroyed in an instant.

You see, China has been bootstrapping it's economy by pegging the Yuan to the dollar. They are racing against time to make a consumption economy.

Go ahead, declare a currency war. Your country doesn't have the ability to survive it and your political leaders know it.
 

xaeniac

Golden Member
Feb 4, 2005
1,641
14
81
The sad part is China needs the U.S. to buy all the junk they make. And when inflation hits China the manufacturing will take a hit as well.
 

ohnoes

Senior member
Oct 11, 2007
269
0
0
unfortunately, the mfg arbitrage is going to disappear regardless. China's demographics is going to flip upside down in 15-20 years and all the cheap labors going to evaporate. If they can somehow manage into a svcs/domestic consumption country, it might be okay. Otherwise, it's going to be a sh*tshow.
 

ohnoes

Senior member
Oct 11, 2007
269
0
0
What do you mean by this? Doesn't UPS have to charge more with $3 a gallon gasoline? Doesn't labor have to charge more to get to work and eat with higher commodities? Only thing I see deflationary are houses and capital equipment left over and still inventory everything else is up.

I think it has more to do on the demand side. Across the board commodity price increases are a drag on the economy & depresses demand, which then drives down prices.
 

DanDaManJC

Senior member
Oct 31, 2004
776
0
76
unfortunately, the mfg arbitrage is going to disappear regardless. China's demographics is going to flip upside down in 15-20 years and all the cheap labors going to evaporate. If they can somehow manage into a svcs/domestic consumption country, it might be okay. Otherwise, it's going to be a sh*tshow.

only 15-20 years? that's not too bad.
 

zhangjohn

Junior Member
Dec 20, 2010
17
0
0
What's China going to exchange it into? Which assets would it buy?

Maybe we can exchange our reserves into oil. Oil prices might increase to very high. we still keep our bicycle so we don't worry about that. :biggrin: Without a car, the life is just like 5 year ago.

But how about American without oil? Just a joking, never mind.

America is our largest customer. We never want to offend him. In fact we are very grateful to the United States, we are benefit from globalization and free trade policy that United States maintained. we never have the will to crush America, that's suiside, we know that.

But United States should restrain its urge to print money. There is a way to call back the money, just like the policy that encourage rich people to emigrate to America. You can rob China's money by this way.

if china goverment can't give democracy and freedom to their people, some one can give! The only defect is the freedom is not free.
 

Painman

Diamond Member
Feb 27, 2000
3,805
29
86
Taxes MUST go up. Perhaps I've said it before, but Eisenhower presided over top marginal income tax rates of 92%. Throughout the 70s they were 70%. Right now they're 35%. source

Those high marginal tax rates of past eras certainly didn't make Getting Rich unpopular.

There's neither the political courage nor the will to do it, though. Ironically, the key to achieving a balanced budget while maintaining low tax rates is by killing the debt... the folks most in favor of slashing taxes to barebones levels don't want to talk about the debt, even though killing it would slash many billions away from our budget obligations. The problem is that the political benefits are 30 years away in the future, at best - political careers rarely last that long.

I'm certainly not advocating the abolishment of democracy, but that's one of its biggest problems - it only really reacts to short-term trends, and tends to create lots of long-term problems for itself by kicking cans down the road.
 

gingermeggs

Golden Member
Dec 22, 2008
1,157
0
71
Taxes MUST go up. Perhaps I've said it before, but Eisenhower presided over top marginal income tax rates of 92%. Throughout the 70s they were 70%. Right now they're 35%. source

Those high marginal tax rates of past eras certainly didn't make Getting Rich unpopular.

There's neither the political courage nor the will to do it, though. Ironically, the key to achieving a balanced budget while maintaining low tax rates is by killing the debt... the folks most in favor of slashing taxes to barebones levels don't want to talk about the debt, even though killing it would slash many billions away from our budget obligations. The problem is that the political benefits are 30 years away in the future, at best - political careers rarely last that long.

I'm certainly not advocating the abolishment of democracy, but that's one of its biggest problems - it only really reacts to short-term trends, and tends to create lots of long-term problems for itself by kicking cans down the road.

So basically you saying the republic is on an irreversible course unless it has some major political changes, what it is more about the corporate hold on the democracy Major player being the Financial industry and the puppet parties which do anything for funding to buy the next election.
People could dilute the power of the 2 party system by voting independents, it makes the major parties look at themselves more deeply then using marketing trickery to sell their "brand".
All earnings which go back to an individuals holdings, should be taxed as annual income. Higher tax brackets aren't worth much if the current loophole riddled tax system still prevails-hedge funds!
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
Recently, BOE head Mervyn King came out with a very surprising warning to his compatriots, accompanied with an apology that our own Ben Bernanke will never offer, namely: "I sympathise completely with savers and those who behaved prudently now find themselves among the biggest losers from this crisis." Of course, the US central bank believes it has completed its third mandate job now that the US stock market, not to mention commodities, are starting to be reminiscent of the parabolic phase of the Harare stock market. But back in Europe, even as the EURUSD is surging (killing the dollar, and the primary driver behind US stocks) now that it is accepted that the continent will proceed with its latest full on ponzi scheme and have the EFSF acquire insolvent bonds, even as the ECB proceeds to raise rates, things are getting worse. This is precisely what King warned about in a speech that not surprisingly got absolutely no coverage in the US. Luckily, here is Simon Black's take on the very surprising speech by King which confirmed that the only beneficiaries of Bernanke's policies continue to be the top 1% that make up the financial oligarchy.... as always.

A stern warning from a central banker, by Sovereign Man

Mervyn King is Britain’s chief central banker and a key figure in the global financial system. Last week, after surprising reports surfaced that the British economy had once again contracted in the 4th quarter of last year, King delivered a stern, sobering message to his country:

- “In 2011, real wages are likely to be no higher than they were in 2005… One has to go back to the 1920s to find a time when real wages fell over a period of six years.”

- “The Bank of England cannot prevent the squeeze on real take-home pay that so many families are now beginning to realise is the legacy of the banking crisis and the need to rebalance our economy.”

- “The squeeze on living standards is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis and subsequent rebalancing of the world and UK economies.”

- Furthermore, inflation may rise “to somewhere between four per cent and five per cent over the next few months.”

- “The idea that the MPC could have preserved living standards, by preventing the rise in inflation without also pushing down earnings growth further, is wishful thinking.”

- “npleasant though it is, the Monetary Policy Committee neither can, nor should try to, prevent the squeeze in living standards, half of which is coming in the form of higher prices and half in earnings rising at a rate lower than normal.”

- “I sympathise completely with savers and those who behaved prudently now find themselves among the biggest losers from this crisis.”

To summarize, one of the world’s leading central bankers has looked his country in the eye and admitted that he is completely powerless to prevent the inevitable decline in living standards that will result from years of reckless behavior.

It’s amazing that someone in his position would be so terse, so direct in his appraisal of the situation; by nature of their positions, central bankers are serial liars who must continually deceive the public in order to set expectations and carry out their agenda.

King’s statement may be a sign that England is finally on its last leg. Fiscally, the country is in a similar situation as the US and Europe– in debt up to its eyeballs, hemorrhaging cash, and quickly losing the confidence of the international community.

Unlike Europe, the US, and even Japan to a degree, England lacks reserve currency status in any measure that matters… so without a line of foreigners to buy its debt regardless of the fundamentals, the UK has been forced into its day of reckoning before the others.



http://www.zerohedge.com/article/si...al-banks-are-destroying-middle-class-standard

We' won't hear the same from "the Bernank"
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,457
7,393
136
Taxes MUST go up. Perhaps I've said it before, but Eisenhower presided over top marginal income tax rates of 92%. Throughout the 70s they were 70%. Right now they're 35%. source

I agree that taxes need to go up and spending needs to come down. But bringing up this argument is a poor choice. Back then, there were also loopholes you could drive trains through. The only people that would ever pay the top marginal rate would be people like lottery winners.

I also think in the taxes need to go up vein - income needs to be treated the same, regardless of where it is coming from (capital gains, real estate, earned income, etc...). Until that happens, those with extremely large amounts of wealth will be able to continually generate more wealth for themselves with significantly lower tax rates compared to the people who have to earn their way. And taxes need to go up on everyone. Even if it's people in the lowest rung and they have to pay $1, this is a mess we got into together, this is a mess we'll get out of together.
 
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Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
“I sympathise completely with savers and those who behaved prudently now find themselves among the biggest losers from this crisis.”

Ain't that a bitch. The "ants" will be the one that are fucked and the "grasshoppers" would had a blast/good time with their spend now and spend more mentality.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
The "ants" will be the one that are fucked and the "grasshoppers" would had a blast/good time with their spend now and spend more mentality.

Pretty much true, until SH the proverbial F. Cause at that time "out of touch and out of skill" grasshoppers will be out of luck and out of time...
 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,914
3
0
It suggests to me our political system is broken when no elected member of it is willing to seriously discuss the biggest problem facing the country.

There are three undeniable truths:

1) Taxes will need to be raised drastically.
2) Benefits and services will need to be cut severely.
3) The sooner 1 and 2 happen, the smaller the problem will be.

You can argue point 3 by delaying implementation until a year or two down the road (so as to let the economy recover). But the sooner some agreed upon plan is in place, whether it starts today or a year from now, the better.

But none of our leaders want to acknowledge these truths. It is disturbing.
 

daishi5

Golden Member
Feb 17, 2005
1,196
0
76
Miltiary budgets of the top 10 countries

United States

663,255,000,000
4.3%

China

98,800,000,000
2.0%

United Kingdom

69,271,000,000
2.5%

France

67,316,000,000
2.3%

Russian Federation

61,000,000,000
3.5%

Germany

48,022,000,000
1.3%

Japan

46,859,000,000
0.9%

Saudi Arabia

39,257,000,000
8.2%

Italy

37,427,000,000
1.7%

India

36,600,000,000
2.6%





Gee, I have no idea where we might try to find money to plug our deficit. Maybe if we didn't spend more money than the next 17 largest countries combined on our military. I know it is the sacred cow, but it has to go on the alter.

Edit, and as for raising taxes, what we need to do is iron out the tax code, but raising taxes does not automatically equal more income. Government revenue as a % of GDP has remained relatively stable for decades, almost unchanged from the 90% tax rates to the 30% tax rates. If the drop from 90% to whatever it is now at the very top did not drop our tax income drastically, I don't see a good reason to believe that raising it back up will raise huge amounts of money.
 
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piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
The problem is spending is not cut after taxes are raised. They can cut spending now, but have not thus far.
 
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