U.S. hiring surprisingly strong in November..booming economy

[IGBT]

Text

"The conclusion is that this is a Goldilocks economy; not too hot, not too cold," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer for Johnson Illington Advisers in Albany, New York.

Stock prices were treading water in mid-morning trading as investors apparently remained concerned about the durability of consumer spending. But Treasury bond prices fell broadly on the belief that stronger job prospects reduced chances that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year.

 

[funboy6942]

Love how they forcast the "new" jobs but they dont tell you how many went to the crapper.

 

[BoomerD]

Originally posted by: funboy42
Love how they forcast the "new" jobs but they dont tell you how many went to the crapper.

Nor do they spell out how many are "McJobs" as compared to jobs that pay REAL wages, and have "REAL benefits". The spin put on this kind of thing (by both sides) is dizzying...

 

[Reckoner]

Originally posted by: BoomerD

Originally posted by: funboy42
Love how they forcast the "new" jobs but they dont tell you how many went to the crapper.

Nor do they spell out how many are "McJobs" as compared to jobs that pay REAL wages, and have "REAL benefits". The spin put on this kind of thing (by both sides) is dizzying...

QFT

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: BoomerD

Originally posted by: funboy42
Love how they forcast the "new" jobs but they dont tell you how many went to the crapper.

Nor do they spell out how many are "McJobs" as compared to jobs that pay REAL wages, and have "REAL benefits". The spin put on this kind of thing (by both sides) is dizzying...

a) that's a net total. actual number of jobs added was probably 1 million+
b) real incomes for non-management employees increased 2.8% in the year to year 3rd quarter

 

[ebaycj]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: BoomerD

Originally posted by: funboy42
Love how they forcast the "new" jobs but they dont tell you how many went to the crapper.

Nor do they spell out how many are "McJobs" as compared to jobs that pay REAL wages, and have "REAL benefits". The spin put on this kind of thing (by both sides) is dizzying...

a) that's a net total. actual number of jobs added was probably 1 million+
b) real incomes for non-management employees increased 2.8% in the year to year 3rd quarter

And average inflation over the last year (nov2005 -> oct 2006) was 3.72 percent.

So what you're saying is that the AVERAGE non-management employee got a 6.5% raise?

I don't buy it....

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: ebaycj

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: BoomerD

Originally posted by: funboy42
Love how they forcast the "new" jobs but they dont tell you how many went to the crapper.

Nor do they spell out how many are "McJobs" as compared to jobs that pay REAL wages, and have "REAL benefits". The spin put on this kind of thing (by both sides) is dizzying...

a) that's a net total. actual number of jobs added was probably 1 million+
b) real incomes for non-management employees increased 2.8% in the year to year 3rd quarter

And average inflation over the last year (nov2005 -> oct 2006) was 3.72 percent.

So what you're saying is that the AVERAGE non-management employee got a 6.5% raise?

I don't buy it....

no, the new york times is saying it.

and part of that is the price of energy decreasing.

 

[IGBT]

Text


Well, you can never be totally sure in forecasting, but the worst-case scenario really doesn't appear to be in the cards today. The bitter 1970s stagflation occurred when high oil prices depressed the economy and fueled inflation at the same time. But oil prices today have been falling, not rising, since peaking in July at $78 a barrel.

Part of the run-up to the peak was driven by supply and demand, but it was greatly exaggerated by companies hoarding oil in case of runaway prices and by speculators looking to make a killing. (Strictly on the basis of supply and demand, economists say, the fair price is around $50.)

Now that the peak in prices appears to be behind us, much of that hoard is being sold, even as producers keep drilling new wells.

 

[International Machine Consortium]

Originally posted by: IGBT
Text

"The conclusion is that this is a Goldilocks economy; not too hot, not too cold," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer for Johnson Illington Advisers in Albany, New York.

Stock prices were treading water in mid-morning trading as investors apparently remained concerned about the durability of consumer spending. But Treasury bond prices fell broadly on the belief that stronger job prospects reduced chances that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year.

Too bad we're hemmoraging billions in a failed war.

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: International Machine Consortium

Too bad we're hemmoraging billions in a failed war.

the war was a resounding success.


it's the occupation that's been a problem.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: IGBT
Topic Title: U.S. hiring surprisingly strong in November..booming economy

Booming Bahahahahahahaa :laugh:

I nominate this thread for funniest thread of the year.

 

[randym431]

What was it Clint Eastwood said...
Dont piss down my neck and tell me its raining.

 

[Siddhartha]

Market Summary

Symbol Last Change
Dow 12,307.49 29.08 (0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,437.36 9.67 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,409.84 2.55 (0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.5520% 0.0690
NYSE Volume 2,440,464,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,850,247,000

 

[jrenz]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: IGBT
Topic Title: U.S. hiring surprisingly strong in November..booming economy

Booming Bahahahahahahaa :laugh:

I nominate this thread for funniest thread of the year.

Once you turn it into another "Dave doesn't know jack sh!t about money", then sure.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: jrenz

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: IGBT
Topic Title: U.S. hiring surprisingly strong in November..booming economy

Booming Bahahahahahahaa :laugh:

I nominate this thread for funniest thread of the year.

Once you turn it into another "Dave doesn't know jack sh!t about money", then sure.

Originally posted by: randym431
What was it Clint Eastwood said...
Dont piss down my neck and tell me its raining.

Apparently a lot of Americans enjoy water sports.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: jrenz

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: IGBT
Topic Title: U.S. hiring surprisingly strong in November..booming economy

Booming Bahahahahahahaa :laugh:

I nominate this thread for funniest thread of the year.

Once you turn it into another "Dave doesn't know jack sh!t about money", then sure.

I know a lot more than "jack sh!t about money" and I know that this economy is living on borrowed time. Heck, a lot of wall street thinks that too, except for the sound bites, the people in the trench and those who won't go "on record" are already hedging their bets. Anybody who thinks otherwise is a complete and utter media tool.

 

[fitzov]

All the November hiring occurred in service industries, where 172,000 jobs were added, while goods-producing industries shed 40,000 jobs.Some 29,000 construction jobs were lost in November on top of a 24,000-job reduction in October, reflecting the reduced level of activity in homebuilding and other construction.

Another 15,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in November after 44,000 were cut in October.

Don't you know? China make everything!

 

[Cattlegod]

I wish the rest of the country would have invited SE Michigan to the party

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: fitzov

All the November hiring occurred in service industries, where 172,000 jobs were added, while goods-producing industries shed 40,000 jobs.Some 29,000 construction jobs were lost in November on top of a 24,000-job reduction in October, reflecting the reduced level of activity in homebuilding and other construction.

Another 15,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in November after 44,000 were cut in October.

Don't you know? China make everything!

Get job at Wendy!

 

[zephyrprime]

I will point out once again that the rate of job growth simply needed to keep up with population growth is about 150,000 so the current figure of 130K is mediocre.

 

[fitzov]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
I will point out once again that the rate of job growth simply needed to keep up with population growth is about 150,000 so the current figure of 130K is mediocre.

Wouldn't per capita income measured against inflation be a better indicator? Just curious.

 

[zephyrprime]

Originally posted by: fitzov

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
I will point out once again that the rate of job growth simply needed to keep up with population growth is about 150,000 so the current figure of 130K is mediocre.

Wouldn't per capita income measured against inflation be a better indicator? Just curious.

A better indicator of what? You're implying something but being unclear.

I suppose you meant "a better indicator of the economy". Per capita income is a better indicator of the economy of course. After all, even a nation of cave men could conceivably have job growth of 150K but still suffer from a low gdp because they are stuck in the stone age. In this extreme case, the per capita gdp is clearly the better overall metric.

But I don't understand why you even ask the question. Why would anyone want to limit their power of analysis by ignoring one metric simply because there is another, generally better one? Would you chop off your left hand because it is less adroit than your right? The employment number is more indicative of the economies direction. Per capita GDP just shows how advanced your technology is and how functional your society is.

Or perhaps you meant to say per capita gdp growth. That's a nice figure too but the problem of using it for the purpose to tea leaf reading is that it is really tough to tally up gdp in an accurate way on a quarterly basis. Even the survey based employment numbers must be more accurate than quarterly gdp change figures.

By the way, these government statistics have a significant bs factor. The employment numbers contain both an employer payroll count and a household survey and these two masurements have been pretty divergent all year. The gdp figure includes nonsense items like the gdp value of rent your own house to yourself. And inflation includes BS hedonic adjustments.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Manufacturing in the crapper . . . including a lot of well-paying jobs with health insurance.

Growth areas . . . low wage service:
1) retail . . . apparently credit is still abundant
2) food service . . . fat Americans cannot be bothered with cooking healthy food at home
3) healthcare . . . virtually all of these jobs are for unskilled and semi-skilled positions.

I guess it could be worse. We could have job growth comparable to 2001-2004. But here's a curious irony. If Bush hadn't invaded Iraq, we could afford universal health insurance AND a tax cut . . . or dare I say it . . . cut enough other spending to be in the ballpark of balancing the friggin' budget.

 

[soccerballtux]

We chose to take a calculable risk that we could control the timing of, over one whose timing we couldn't control and whose risk was growing as time passed. Are you saying the latter is the smart thing to do?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Manufacturing in the crapper . . . including a lot of well-paying jobs with health insurance.

Manufacturing isn't in the crapper....only manufacturing jobs, and what jobs are left are being automated as fast as humanly possible (I know, I work in the automation side of a manufacturing company).

From National Association of Manufacturers

All too often the perception is that the heyday of U.S. manufacturing is in the past, but nothing could be further from the truth. Standing by itself, U.S. manufacturing would be the eighth largest economy in the world. There are six manufacturing pillars that support today?s U.S. economy, as the data in this book show (especially in Sections 1 and 3). As shown in the facts book, manufacturing:



makes the highest contribution to economic growth of any sector;

is responsible for more than 70 percent of private sector research and development and the center for a wide range of advanced technologies that cut energy use and lead to a cleaner environment;

achieves a high productivity rate year in and year out, increasing by more than 50 percent in the past decade;

contributes more than 60 percent of U.S. exports or about $50 billion a month;
pays wages and benefits that are about 25 percent higher than in non-manufacturing jobs;

multiplies every dollar spent into an additional $1.37 in economic activity, greater than other sectors.

Seems like with the $1.37 in economic activity for every dollar spent, there should be even more investment in US manufacturing, IMO.