Everything that involves UFOs is somehow absurdly blurry...
The problem is that you think an opinion can be "appropriately backed up" using something other than fact. A heuristic is a heuristic, not a fact. If you comment on the weather and suggest that it's probably sunny because "Occam's razor..." without looking outside to see if it's raining (after all, rain requires clouds and sunny weather doesn't, right?), you'd be making the same logical error.Exactly. It's called everyday conversation, where not every point made has to be it's own thesis. I voiced my opinion and used occam's razor, appropriately, to back it up. I never stated it as fact. But don't worry, if we ever meet up IRL and I tell you the weather is nice, I'll be sure to have polls taken of the local populace's temperature, humidity, and cloud cover preferences to show that my opinion is a reasonable approximation of the local definition of "nice weather" and is therefore valid.
Or you could just take my person opinion for what it is and not quibble over minutia that cannot be proven or disproven by anyone in the room, including you. But if you insist on dong so we can always debate whether God exists or not. That's always a fun one.
The problem is that you think an opinion can be "appropriately backed up" using something other than fact. A heuristic is a heuristic, not a fact. If you comment on the weather and suggest that it's probably sunny because "Occam's razor..." without looking outside to see if it's raining (after all, rain requires clouds and sunny weather doesn't, right?), you'd be making the same logical error.
Did you base your opinion on experiential observation or Occam's Razor? Do you think that choosing your conclusion based on Occam's Razor affects the probability of the cause of an observation?Every opinion is by definition a logical error. Per the analogy, I did the equivalent of seeing sun shining through the window (read: watching the video) and assumed that it wasn't going to rain within the next hour. Can I be 100% sure that I'm right? Of course not. Is there a high probability that I'm right? Given the weather patterns in my area, yes.
Did you base your opinion on experiential observation or Occam's Razor? Do you think that choosing your conclusion based on Occam's Razor affects the probability of the cause of an observation?
Ah, so you admit that you think a post hoc heuristic affects the probability of an event which has already occurred. So, the premise you're supporting is that events or decisions which occur or are made in the future can affect deterministic discrete outcomes in the present?*sigh*
Both. And yes, it does affect the probability of my being right. It's a heuristic for eliminating possibilities in the absence of sufficient hard evidence. I used said heuristic to eliminate a possibility in the absence of sufficient hard evidence.
Now get over it.
The blue light is the Democrats leaving town.
Yes, the third parties only got about 3% of the vote here as well.The blue light is highly intelligent space aliens leaving Earth after realizing there is no hope for Earth's human race, and the stupid voters with the attention span of a small worm and the memory of a 2 year old child. And the syndrome of voters to repeat the same mistakes over and over with expecting different results. I think this syndrome is known as mental illness. Hell.. if I were a highly intelligent space alien I'd beamed up long ago...