"Retailers, shippers, everybody in the chain start hiring people in November to deal with christmas if not a little earlier."
IIRC, seasonal hiring estimates were something like 500,000 (?), but don't know which month's employment report that should be spread out over.
The recent revision of 3Q GDP was apparently due to lack of inventory restocking (retailers fearing bad news on tv and pulling back businesses).
I read somewhere that Black Friday inventory had to be ordered 6 months ago (May-ish, which, IIRC, was before news of potential double dip recession in housing had started to take hold and Greece was not plastered on tv).
Retailers are apparently using just in time inventory management, so
Fedex or
UPS, via
express shipments from China, may give some indication of the legs this Christmas buying season might have.
I think someone else said crunch time for retailers will be about a week or two before Christmas, so I guess time will tell.