poofyhairguy
Lifer
- Nov 20, 2005
- 14,612
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I think there is a very real possibility that we may not seeing anything "significantly" better than a 2600K for 2 or 3 more years. I doubt IPC improvements get us to a 50% improvement over a 2600K in that timeframe. Yeah, extra cores CAN help, but will software take advantage of them?
I think the software is moving in the right direction for sure. Heck the only reason I even need the 2600k today is for gaming, and games are getting more multi-core compatible all the time (so much so that just moving from a 2500k to a 2600k was a noticeable upgrade last year). Honestly I have no need to even move past the 2600k today, which is why I wouldn't mind a strategy that spreads the CPU upgrade costs over a few years.
The question to me is this:
Will the increase in IPC or core count for future Intel consumer CPUs outpace the depreciation of Haswell/Broadwell Xeon CPUs?
In the old days the answer would be hell yes, but today we see eight core Sandy Xeons on ebay cheaper than Skylake i7s. As a gamer I have to assume the PS5 will have an eight core CPU that is at best equal to Ivy/Haswell IPC (at lower clocks than the chips we are talking about today), so I think it is safe to assume a six or eight core Haswell chip could easily be viable in a gaming machine until like 2022 or something crazy like that.
So more and more, it looks like IDC was probably correct - just buy a CPU now and enjoy it for the next 5 years. In 5 years, the top CPU at the time may only be 30% ahead of the CPU you buy today so you can rinse and repeat at that time.
So basically that boils down to "lower your expectations and settle." It sounds more like bad dating advice than technology enthusiast advice. I personally refuse to admit defeat, I can hear my old Celeron 300A calling at me from its place in history- "don't let them win, find a way to get the value they don't want you to have!"
Outside of used Xeons where I see value in the near future is when the tick-tick-tock strategy creates a glut in the middle tick that will have to be cleared off at great prices.
We saw that some with Haswell, people were waiting for DDR4 and Skylake so at the end of Haswell's life you could pick up a six core Haswell at Frys for cheaper than many people bought their 6700k once Skylake released. The only reason I didn't was the cost of X99 mobos (but I should have).
Skylake was obviously a success so there won't be a surplus of Skylake CPUs to clear out, but Kaby is starting to look like the most boring generation in Intel's recent history. If that is the case by the time Kaby is replaced places like Frys will still have a ton of them, and the savvy buyer would hold onto their current CPU to get to that point if they can to help Frys clear that inventory at negative margins for them. By then DDR4 RAM will be a lot cheaper too.
Hell, half the fun of this computer hobby for me is getting more value than companies like Intel intend for me to have. Without overclocking/unlocking cores I would have moved on to something else over a decade ago.
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