Urban crime rates and the changing face of immigration

[pauldun170]

If you want to live in a safe area, make sure that you stay away from those dominated by "Real Muricans"

Some nerds went and typed up a wall of text that can be summed up as
"the empirical evidence in this study and other related research shows little support for the notion that more immigrants lead to more crime."

According to the White House Office of the Press Secretary, a recent Executive Order on Border Security and Immigration Enforcement was intended to address the issue of “significant increase in violent crime” due to immigration driven by “transnational criminal organizations.” These claims directly contradict the results of academic work on immigration and crime, and a recent study published in the Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice reinforces that. It shows that immigration is not linked to increases in crime—in fact, this study suggests it's linked to reductions in certain types of crimes.

This study builds on previous findings on arrests and criminal offenses. That previous data showed that foreign-born residents of the US were less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans. The new study looked at 200 major metropolitan areas as defined by the US Census Bureau. The researchers then used Census data and FBI crime reporting data from 1970-2010 to look at trends for these regions.

The authors were interested in increases in crimes that might be attributable to an influx of immigrants who decreased economic opportunities or ended up in jobs that might otherwise have gone to local-born residents. To that end, they looked at violent crimes and property crimes, including rates of murder, non-negligent manslaughter, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, and larceny.

Looking across various times and locations, the researchers saw that communities undergoing a demographic change due to immigration clearly don’t experience significant increases in crime. In fact, even though these communities may feel like they were in flux due to population changes, crime was either stable or declined in communities that were incorporating many immigrants.

The most striking finding comes from the authors’ models for violent crime, murder, and robbery. The authors found that in three out of four statistical models, an increase in the percentage of foreign-born residents was significantly associated with decreases in these three types of crimes. In other words, when immigrants went up, violent crime went down. For example, rates of property crimes declined more rapidly in cities with high percentages of foreign-born residents than they did in cities with low percentages of foreign-born residents.

In summarizing this paper’s results, the lead author, Robert Adelman (associate professor of sociology at University at Buffalo) said, “the empirical evidence in this study and other related research shows little support for the notion that more immigrants lead to more crime.” Indeed, this study appears to show that for the last quarter of the 20th century and the early portion of the 21st century, the presence of immigrants was consistently associated with drops in violent and property crimes in major US cities.

Journal of Ethnicity in Criminal Justice, 2017. DOI: 10.1080/15377938.2016.1261057 (About DOIs)
https://arstechnica.com/science/201...igration-decreases-or-stabilizes-crime-rates/

Abstract
Research has shown little support for the enduring proposition that increases in immigration are associated with increases in crime. Although classical criminological and neoclassical economic theories would predict immigration to increase crime, most empirical research shows quite the opposite. We investigate the immigration-crime relationship among metropolitan areas over a 40 year period from 1970 to 2010. Our goal is to describe the ongoing and changing association between immigration and a broad range of violent and property crimes. Our results indicate that immigration is consistently linked to decreases in violent (e.g., murder) and property (e.g., burglary) crime throughout the time period.
...
rest here

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15377938.2016.1261057

 

[brandonbull]

Americans seem to be anti-immigration? People don't want illegal aliens coming to the US. We should be looking to have people coming to the country that commit less crimes. Duh!! Who thinks that having new groups of people that maintain or increase the level of unacceptable behavior is the correct path?

So is the thought that if we open up the floodgates, that all of our problems will be fixed?

 

[Brainonska511]

Americans seem to be anti-immigration? People don't want illegal aliens coming to the US. We should be looking to have people coming to the country that commit less crimes. Duh!! Who thinks that having new groups of people that maintain or increase the level of unacceptable behavior is the correct path?

So is the thought that if we open up the floodgates, that all of our problems will be fixed?

Who said anything about "open[ing] up the floodgates"? You know that we don't live in a binary world, right?

The main point is that public policy should be based on facts and reality. Don't call for radical changes in immigration policy because of a crime wave caused by immigrants - that assertion is simply not supported by the data.

 

[glenn1]

If you accept this study then you can't accept the typical progressive logic that "poverty is the primary driver for crime" since new immigrants tend to be poorer.

 

[HomerJS]

If you accept this study then you can't accept the typical progressive logic that "poverty is the primary driver for crime" since new immigrants tend to be poorer.

As opposed to the righty logic that "brown skin is the driver of crime"

 

[Spungo]

As opposed to the righty logic that "brown skin is the driver of crime"

Unfortunately, the contention that brown people commit more crime is strongly supported by mountains of evidence. In America, cities with the most black people always have the most crime. In Europe, cities with the most black or middle eastern people have the most crime. Look at Malmo, Sweden. It's basically a war zone right now. It's not the native Swedes who are throwing bombs at police. You can also look at Marseille, France. Very high middle east and north African population, very high crime rate. Many parts of Europe have become no-go zones for women.

One guy did an exceptionally good video explaining what the numbers suggest about ethnicity and crime:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbXN-l5WOyw

 

[DrunkenSano]

Using facts like that is racist.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Lügenpost

Unfortunately, the contention that brown people commit more crime is strongly supported by mountains of evidence. In America, cities with the most black people always have the most crime. In Europe, cities with the most black or middle eastern people have the most crime. Look at Malmo, Sweden. It's basically a war zone right now. It's not the native Swedes who are throwing bombs at police. You can also look at Marseille, France. Very high middle east and north African population, very high crime rate. Many parts of Europe have become no-go zones for women.

One guy did an exceptionally good video explaining what the numbers suggest about ethnicity and crime:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbXN-l5WOyw

 

[pauldun170]

Unfortunately, the contention that brown people commit more crime is strongly supported by mountains of evidence. In America, cities with the most black people always have the most crime. In Europe, cities with the most black or middle eastern people have the most crime. Look at Malmo, Sweden. It's basically a war zone right now. It's not the native Swedes who are throwing bombs at police. You can also look at Marseille, France. Very high middle east and north African population, very high crime rate. Many parts of Europe have become no-go zones for women.

One guy did an exceptionally good video explaining what the numbers suggest about ethnicity and crime:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbXN-l5WOyw

Study talks about immigrants in the United States
You are talking about black and brown people in general.

How did you make the leap from a study on immigration crime statistics to all darkies are criminal?

 

[Jaskalas]

Obviously if Chicago gang culture was uprooted and replaced by near any other culture....they couldn't do any worse.
Most likely it'd make the town a much safe place.

 

[pauldun170]

Obviously if Chicago gang culture was uprooted and replaced by near any other culture....they couldn't do any worse.
Most likely it'd make the town a much safe place.

Chicago "gang" culture?
Chicago has had "gangs" for over a century.
What era of gang do you think had the biggest impact?
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/ilcrime.htm

 

[realibrad]

Chicago "gang" culture?
Chicago has had "gangs" for over a century.
What era of gang do you think had the biggest impact?
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/ilcrime.htm

Not the accusation. It is a fact that Chicago has a higher rate of gang members per capita when compared to other major cities.

http://www.therichest.com/rich-list/most-shocking/the-most-gang-infested-cities-in-america/

Here is another article.

http://www.newsweek.com/2016/12/23/chicago-gangs-violence-murder-rate-532034.html

Roughly 90 percent of this gun violence, police say, flows from gangs.

Chicago’s modern history of gang violence, especially on its West and South sides, goes back to the 1960s. (As bad as 2016 is, the total number of murders will still be well below the over 900 annual murders in the early 1990s.) But over the past year, two things have accelerated the attacks, according to social workers and law enforcement authorities. Budget cuts reduced the number of anti-violence social workers who once cooled the simmering feuds, and a series of deadly police shootings and alleged misconduct by police have torpedoed the relationship between cops and residents.

So why ask about "gang" culture? Your link is of overall deaths, but it does not establish demographics of the people committing the crimes. Quite clearly the major factor right now is gang violence.

 

[Maxima1]

If you accept this study then you can't accept the typical progressive logic that "poverty is the primary driver for crime" since new immigrants tend to be poorer.

Immigrants aren't a random sample of a population, so it really doesn't say much at all about the variable of poverty. Poverty, by the way, has some obvious indirect effects. For example, due to large wage inequality, someone working a dead-end job is less likely to court someone who is likely to have better genes (i.e. not a predisposition to antisocial behavior).

Study talks about immigrants in the United States
You are talking about black and brown people in general.

How did you make the leap from a study on immigration crime statistics to all darkies are criminal?

As I said above, immigrants aren't a random sample! After a generation or two, the offspring of those immigrants from Mexico will have a higher crime rate than the general white population here.

Edit: By the way, the study seems to lump all immigrants to make a broad conclusion encompassing all of them, which is asinine.

 

[Moonbeam]

As opposed to the righty logic that "brown skin is the driver of crime"

He didn't say that. His error is in equating a partial truth that poverty will associate with crime under circumstances while implying that progressives think it applies straight across, which no real progressive believes. Poverty and crime connect where the superficial moral values equate the risk of jail to be worth stealing from somebody else and possibly letting them suffer instead. People with real moral principles will not take what isn't theirs under any more or less normal condition. In short crime is associated with the erosion of moral values due to hopelessness and blocked opportunity. We live in a nation of brain defective people who do not care about the suffering that creates the actions they fear. All they can do is try to respond with greater authoritarian violence.

 

[mrjminer]

The report is hilarious, if anyone else actually took the time to read it. If not, though, let me break it down for you: essentially, the parties who created the report have just cited a bunch of sources to propel their opined views and claim that it somehow proves their ultimate conclusion, which is, basically, something along the lines of "because the crime rate has gone down, immigrants are good." Of course, it fails to take anything else into account anything else as responsible for any decrease in crime. These could include things such as unreported crimes, increased police activity, increased technology, lesser pleas, the general evolution of our society as a whole, etc. So, it takes a 40 year period where the peaks of crime were largely due to things like gangs and drugs first coming to be in a major way when law enforcement was not prepared to curb the activities, and attributes everything to immigrants.

Further, the report claims to disprove Trump's quote, which is targeted at Mexicans (and truly directed toward illegal immigrants, of which this implication is never mentioned), but comically instead uses all immigration from everywhere -- and further -- only legal immigration to somehow claim it disproves Trump's quote. So, ultimately, the conclusion of the report is that when we enforce our laws for LEGAL immigration across ALL people, in which we select those who increase the value of our society (aka: the purpose of allowing immigration), the value of our society increases. Gee, what a revelation. Even with this complete sham of a report, the authors can't even refute their distorted viewpoint of the Trump claim in their purposefully-misleading context of 'all legal immigrants,' such as is evidenced in the following paraphrase used by the report:

Although some groups of immigrants enter the United States with, on average, very low levels of education (e.g., Mexicans), others arrive with college degrees from their home country with which they are able to successfully compete for highly-skilled jobs (Zhou, M. (2001). Contemporary immigration and the dynamics of race and ethnicity. In N. J. Smelser, W. J. Wilson, & F. Mitchell (Eds.), America becoming: Racial trends and their consequences (pp. 200–242). Washington, DC: National Academy Press.).

The authors are clearly not unbiased. The report is a joke, albeit a good one. Luckily, the joke is on them, as the only thing the article truly suggests is that legal immigration should be enforced (again, though, it still lacks sufficient research to even prove this claim).

 

[senseamp]

Get your lazy butt into the fields and start picking my strawberries. Nice and early. I'll even pay a little more if it says, picked by uppity Trump supporters bent over for 12 hours a day.

 

[brandonbull]

Get your lazy butt into the fields and start picking my strawberries. Nice and early. I'll even pay a little more if it says, picked by uppity Trump supporters bent over for 12 hours a day.

You act as if non mexicans never picked strawberries or did any hard work. Bubble life must be awesome.

 

[agent00f]

The report is hilarious, if anyone else actually took the time to read it. If not, though, let me break it down for you: essentially, the parties who created the report have just cited a bunch of sources to propel their opined views and claim that it somehow proves their ultimate conclusion, which is, basically, something along the lines of "because the crime rate has gone down, immigrants are good." Of course, it fails to take anything else into account anything else as responsible for any decrease in crime. These could include things such as unreported crimes, increased police activity, increased technology, lesser pleas, the general evolution of our society as a whole, etc. So, it takes a 40 year period where the peaks of crime were largely due to things like gangs and drugs first coming to be in a major way when law enforcement was not prepared to curb the activities, and attributes everything to immigrants.

Further, the report claims to disprove Trump's quote, which is targeted at Mexicans (and truly directed toward illegal immigrants, of which this implication is never mentioned), but comically instead uses all immigration from everywhere -- and further -- only legal immigration to somehow claim it disproves Trump's quote. So, ultimately, the conclusion of the report is that when we enforce our laws for LEGAL immigration across ALL people, in which we select those who increase the value of our society (aka: the purpose of allowing immigration), the value of our society increases. Gee, what a revelation. Even with this complete sham of a report, the authors can't even refute their distorted viewpoint of the Trump claim in their purposefully-misleading context of 'all legal immigrants,' such as is evidenced in the following paraphrase used by the report:



The authors are clearly not unbiased. The report is a joke, albeit a good one. Luckily, the joke is on them, as the only thing the article truly suggests is that legal immigration should be enforced (again, though, it still lacks sufficient research to even prove this claim).

Good thing actual empirical researchers aren't dumbshit conservatives:

"an increase in the percentage of foreign-born residents was significantly associated with decreases in these three types of crimes. In other words, when immigrants went up, violent crime went down. For example, rates of property crimes declined more rapidly in cities with high percentages of foreign-born residents than they did in cities with low percentages of foreign-born residents."

There's good reason why a few percent of scientists in the US are conservative.

 

[greatnoob]

Good thing actual empirical researchers aren't dumbshit conservatives:

"an increase in the percentage of foreign-born residents was significantly associated with decreases in these three types of crimes. In other words, when immigrants went up, violent crime went down. For example, rates of property crimes declined more rapidly in cities with high percentages of foreign-born residents than they did in cities with low percentages of foreign-born residents."

There's good reason why a few percent of scientists in the US are conservative.

Low IQ ~ Conservative_Support

p < 0.001

 

[Phokus]

Low IQ ~ Conservative_Support

p < 0.001

I have a cousin that works at Google as a software engineer. The overwhelming majority of workers in high tech companies are liberal (Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc.)... if there are any 'conservatives', they're few and far between and are typically of the libertarian variety. Garden variety conservatives are too stupid to do anything that requires intelligence.

 

[Moonbeam]

I have a cousin that works at Google as a software engineer. The overwhelming majority of workers in high tech companies are liberal (Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc.)... if there are any 'conservatives', they're few and far between and are typically of the libertarian variety. Garden variety conservatives are too stupid to do anything that requires intelligence.

Actually, garden variety conservatives were programmed to be so conformist as children to that they are terrified of truth as it really is. The cage is gone but the virtual bars remain. They pace up sand down in a rut. Their intelligence is used to deny reality and their capacity to do so shows them to be brilliant.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

Who has said that legal immigrants commit disproportionate amounts of crime, perhaps aside from guys worried about Muslim terrorists (a silly fear)? Everyone knows that Asians, Indians, Middle-Easterners, etc commit little crime in America.

Good thing actual empirical researchers aren't dumbshit conservatives:

"an increase in the percentage of foreign-born residents was significantly associated with decreases in these three types of crimes. In other words, when immigrants went up, violent crime went down. For example, rates of property crimes declined more rapidly in cities with high percentages of foreign-born residents than they did in cities with low percentages of foreign-born residents."

There's good reason why a few percent of scientists in the US are conservative.

Way to show your illiteracy. His point is that despite the study showing that association, it fails to consider countless possible variables at play. America also has an increasingly large prison population and longer prison sentences for violent crime in many areas. You think that might play a role? And what is the correlation between immigration to a city and the number of blacks (the ethnic group most associated with crime) within a city? It could just as easily be that immigrants move to cities like San Diego, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, etc where blacks are underrepresented, and choose not to move to cities like St. Louis or Baltimore where blacks are overrepresented. Obviously NYC will be an exception, but that place is massive and obviously ethnically segregated as most cities are.

 

[pauldun170]

Not the accusation. It is a fact that Chicago has a higher rate of gang members per capita when compared to other major cities.

http://www.therichest.com/rich-list/most-shocking/the-most-gang-infested-cities-in-america/

Here is another article.

http://www.newsweek.com/2016/12/23/chicago-gangs-violence-murder-rate-532034.html



So why ask about "gang" culture? Your link is of overall deaths, but it does not establish demographics of the people committing the crimes. Quite clearly the major factor right now is gang violence.

After rereading jaskalas post, I realized I skimmed and read it wrong.

 

[realibrad]

After rereading jaskalas post, I realized I skimmed and read it wrong.

Fair enough. Things happen.

 

[agent00f]

Who Ihas said that legal immigrants commit disproportionate amounts of crime, perhaps aside from guys worried about Muslim terrorists (a silly fear)? Everyone knows that Asians, Indians, Middle-Easterners, etc commit little crime in America.



Way to show your illiteracy. His point is that despite the study showing that association, it fails to consider countless possible variables at play. America also has an increasingly large prison population and longer prison sentences for violent crime in many areas. You think that might play a role? And what is the correlation between immigration to a city and the number of blacks (the ethnic group most associated with crime) within a city? It could just as easily be that immigrants move to cities like San Diego, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, etc where blacks are underrepresented, and choose not to move to cities like St. Louis or Baltimore where blacks are overrepresented. Obviously NYC will be an exception, but that place is massive and obviously ethnically segregated as most cities are.

Literacy in this case means understanding 1. what he blusters about, 2. how the study works, 3. and how 2 addresses 1. For you I would similarly recommend pondering 2 for while to to grasp how it's orthogonal to your own 1.