Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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guskline

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2006
5,338
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Thank you for the info Glo. I hope they make an air cooled Big Vega that can be water-cooled. Would love to integrate it into my custom water cooled Ryzen 7 1800x build.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
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leave the financial crap out of the thread. This is for Vega rumors.

When a stock loses 25% ahead of a major product launch, it is noteworthy and could be tied to any of these recent rumors. While it is more likely that the loss is the result of simple binary decision making (If [New product: (Ryzen)] != [instant green quarter], then SELL) we cannot completely discount the possibility of a devastating vega leak causing this.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
733
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When a stock loses 25% ahead of a major product launch, it is noteworthy and could be tied to any of these recent rumors. While it is more likely that the loss is the result of simple binary decision making (If [New product: (Ryzen)] != [instant green quarter], then SELL) we cannot completely discount the possibility of a devastating vega leak causing this.

Financial things should be on a different thread.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
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When a stock loses 25% ahead of a major product launch, it is noteworthy and could be tied to any of these recent rumors. While it is more likely that the loss is the result of simple binary decision making (If [New product: (Ryzen)] != [instant green quarter], then SELL) we cannot completely discount the possibility of a devastating vega leak causing this.

The stock sell off has nothing to do with Vega news (consider that essentially nothing actionable has been released re: Vega), and everything to do with the Q1 report on Monday evening and AMD's projected margin adjustment for Q2.
 

Headfoot

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2008
4,444
641
126
When a stock loses 25% ahead of a major product launch, it is noteworthy and could be tied to any of these recent rumors. While it is more likely that the loss is the result of simple binary decision making (If [New product: (Ryzen)] != [instant green quarter], then SELL) we cannot completely discount the possibility of a devastating vega leak causing this.
While theoretically possible, that was not the case in reality. A moot point.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,848
13,784
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Very dodgy: http://wccftech.com/amd-radeon-vega-specs-leaked-linux-patch/

So basically a die-shrunk Fury with HBM2, I guess also with higher clocks and a few other tweaks.

Fiji had a density of 14.4 million transistors per mm^2.
Polaris is at 24.6M/mm^2

A simple die shrunk Fiji would be about 350 mm^2.

Since the rumors say Vega 10 is 500+ mm^2 that makes about 50% more transistors available than Fiji.

Those are what's going to make 4X power efficiency (gating probably) and 2X / clock efficiencies possible.

Comparison with Fiji will be very interesting.
 
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crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
136
Well there is not much to think about a GPU from AMD, that has been registered for release.

If they were registered yesterday that means we are going to see the launch very soon.

Have you or anyone seen this before and can draw a timeline? We know Vega is coming in less than 58 days, so very soon is very subjective. Does anyone know if anything like this popped up for Polaris or Fiji, and when?
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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Don't think they need to, they simply need to be better or close to Intel (APU) + Nvidia (dGPU) to corner that part of that market, though the top end will be Nvidia for the foreseeable future because AMD don't have anything to replace that GTX 1070~1080 in a laptop, however the number of users who buy such a config is very limited.

AMD will eventually have to get back into high end notebook gaming with Vega or Navi. They have conceded that lucrative part of the gaming market completely to Nvidia for the past 4+ years as they do not have competitive products especially in terms of perf/watt.
 

crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
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Comparison with Fiji will be very interesting.

Comparisons to several AMD architectures will be very interesting. As well as comparisons to Nvidia in the context of previous AMD chips to Nvidia.

They must do much better than Fiji performance-per-flop (PPF), first and foremost.

Miserable Fiji PPF (Fury X) would put Vega at only ~81% of an aftermarket 1080 Ti, assuming it is 1525MHz:
https://tpucdn.com/reviews/EVGA/GTX_1080_Ti_SC2/images/perfrel_2560_1440.png

At lower resolutions Hawaii and Polaris trade with each other for the AMD GPU with the best PPF, Hawaii due to 64 ROPs and rich bandwidth, and Polaris due to architectural improvements. But at 1440p or higher Hawaii usually just outright brute forces past Polaris as the PPF king.

Not finally decisively beating the nearly 4 year old Hawaii in PPF would be a technical failure for Vega (this is independent of price and features). Given that this is 2 years after Fiji, they should have figured out how to balance it properly. Matching PPF of Hawaii and Polaris, assuming 12.5 TFLOP is true, would see this at least trade with the 1080 Ti.

Using same TPU chart, Vega with Polaris 10 PPF (using 480) would be ~94% of an aftermarket 1080 Ti. Using ancient Hawaii PPF (390) would put Vega at ~107%.

Note that I am not trying to create hype and actual expectations, if anything it shows how AMD PPF can vary wildly thanks to design decisions. Vega could regress, stagnate, or progress in PPF. Also 12.5 TFLOPs (seen months ago) could have been cancelled and revised down lower.
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
The stock sell off has nothing to do with Vega news (consider that essentially nothing actionable has been released re: Vega), and everything to do with the Q1 report on Monday evening and AMD's projected margin adjustment for Q2.
Ya, I'm very very angry I didn't have this event bookmarked. And yes I do think Financials are relevant. It's not something to debate about or freak out about like we normally do by comparing it to Nvidia.
But I am curious as to how Vega performs in comparison to the average uninformed person (includes investors who have a good idea, but aren't as clued in as tech nerds).

Like we should have all gotten free Vega gpus from q1 quarterly via shorts.

Amd has the most trading potential whether it's stocks, or cards. Things that carry the amd have tons of room for opportunities.

Buy Vega short amd?
Who's in?
Sounds like the best of both worlds

Otherwise I hate most financial discussion on here because it tries to get too deep while missing basic concepts.

Simply discussing whether Vega will meet expectations of the general market (who is uninformed anyway) so we can get free Vega gpus? Don't see anything wrong with that. I'm of the mindset Vega will not have great sales.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,848
13,784
146
Comparisons to several AMD architectures will be very interesting. As well as comparisons to Nvidia in the context of previous AMD chips to Nvidia.

They must do much better than Fiji performance-per-flop (PPF), first and foremost.

Miserable Fiji PPF (Fury X) would put Vega at only ~81% of an aftermarket 1080 Ti, assuming it is 1525MHz:
https://tpucdn.com/reviews/EVGA/GTX_1080_Ti_SC2/images/perfrel_2560_1440.png

At lower resolutions Hawaii and Polaris trade with each other for the AMD GPU with the best PPF, Hawaii due to 64 ROPs and rich bandwidth, and Polaris due to architectural improvements. But at 1440p or higher Hawaii usually just outright brute forces past Polaris as the PPF king.

Not finally decisively beating the nearly 4 year old Hawaii in PPF would be a technical failure for Vega (this is independent of price and features). Given that this is 2 years after Fiji, they should have figured out how to balance it properly. Matching PPF of Hawaii and Polaris, assuming 12.5 TFLOP is true, would see this at least trade with the 1080 Ti.

Using same TPU chart, Vega with Polaris 10 PPF (using 480) would be ~94% of an aftermarket 1080 Ti. Using ancient Hawaii PPF (390) would put Vega at ~107%.

Note that I am not trying to create hype and actual expectations, if anything it shows how AMD PPF can vary wildly thanks to design decisions. Vega could regress, stagnate, or progress in PPF. Also 12.5 TFLOPs (seen months ago) could have been cancelled and revised down lower.
I agree. If AMD doesn't improve performance/flop and watt over their 28nm designs it will be a failure

However I think there's a lot of performance left for Vega to mine from the basic Fiji architecture.

If we remember the situation going into Fiji both AMD and NV already had two designs at 28nm. Fury and the 980Ti were the third. Both GPUs went right up to the reticule limit to eek out increased performance.

AMD succeeded for the most part, in that stock Fury X was competitive, performance wise, with the stock 980Ti. Of course the 980Ti was the better package, with great OCs, lower power, and the more marketable 6GB vs 4GB.

Unlike previous GPUs on 28nm where they could have gone bigger to better balance a design, Fury was as large as it could possibly be. They'd even increased transistor density by 25% over Tahiti. So any transistors required to improve performance/watt or performance/FLOP probably had to be dropped. There simply wasn't die left to implement it.

At 14nm that's no longer the case.
 
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crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
136
Which one of those results best translates into typical AAA gaming performance? I have no familiarity with that benchmark site.
 

Crono

Lifer
Aug 8, 2001
23,720
1,501
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R0H1T

Platinum Member
Jan 12, 2013
2,582
162
106
Which one of those results best translates into typical AAA gaming performance? I have no familiarity with that benchmark site.
The results are from Compubench (OpenCL) & AMD almost always beats anything Nvidia at that, for the consumer (gaming) parts at the very least but it doesn't tell us anything apart from gpgpu performance.
 
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