Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,821
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I get the AMD lack of resources thing, I don't expect miracles but Fury X was the 980TI competition in summer 2015. The 980TI is roughly equivalent to the 1070. So if VEGA (heaven forbid) is at 1070 levels of performance then the entire idiocracy of AMD's GPU division has been almost back pedalling for two years. OK they went forward a tiny bit but it would be such a puny pathetic incremental improvement that if they are really GPU engineers they need to find another job as they lost their way.

When you put it that way, I find it hard to imagine that even the most jaded AMD hater (you know who you are! ) would honestly believe that AMD is actually going to release a card that performs at the same level of their ~2 year-old flagship. It makes no sense....(OK, let's ignore Bulldozer. )
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
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If it does that in gaming but improves notably in compute & stuff then it could still be a good release.
(assuming they manage to sell into that market of course.).
 

Jackie60

Member
Aug 11, 2006
118
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When you put it that way, I find it hard to imagine that even the most jaded AMD hater (you know who you are! ) would honestly believe that AMD is actually going to release a card that performs at the same level of their ~2 year-old flagship. It makes no sense....(OK, let's ignore Bulldozer. )

I wouldn't want to believe it either and can't really imagine it but ignoring the unmentionable I'd prefer absolute silence rather than a video that suggests so or could leave any doubt. I say they should stfu and reveal a decent hand when they have one or leave the table to pick up the crumbs underneath.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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Fury X was clocked at 1050 Mhz. The flagship RX Vega is expected to clock faster than Frontier Edition which clocks at 1600 Mhz. This would put RX Vega at around 1650-1680 Mhz. Thats almost 60% higher core clocks. GTX 1080 Ti is 75-80% faster than Fury X. If Vega 10 cannot match GTX 1080 Ti with a new compute engine with NCU, new geometry engine with improved load balancing , new pixel engine with tiled rasterizer and 60% higher clocks then its an outright disaster. If they can beat a full GP102 at max clocks then atleast they have something to build from to have a chance against Volta which is promising to be a beast in performance and is coming in early 2018.
 

Jackie60

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Aug 11, 2006
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I agree Raghu but additionally I have money screaming to go into AMD's pockets. I want seamless quadfire as in proper driver support with loads of memory so i can have 2 x2Vega in my machine. I don't even need quadfire yet or ever BUT I need better performance without the SLI/xfire overhead this year. FFS I have 1600W PSU I ran 6990 Quadfire, 295x2 quadfire and I need about 1.5-2x what I got with 2xTitan XP(~1080TI SLI equivalent). I don't give a fig/flip/frick how I get there I'll pay £1500 ($1700) this August for it but without that I'll be going Volta next and fk em (as in AMD). Clearly I'm
using the term 'need' loosely as I need beer food and water so it's more of a 'I would like it if you cretins can pull your fingers out and get around to selling me this' sort of thing.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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I agree Raghu but additionally I have money screaming to go into AMD's pockets. I want seamless quadfire as in proper driver support with loads of memory so i can have 2 x2Vega in my machine. I don't even need quadfire yet or ever BUT I need better performance without the SLI/xfire overhead this year. FFS I have 1600W PSU I ran 6990 Quadfire, 295x2 quadfire and I need about 1.5-2x what I got with 2xTitan XP(~1080TI SLI equivalent). I don't give a fig/flip/frick how I get there I'll pay £1500 ($1700) this August for it but without that I'll be going Volta next and fk em (as in AMD). Clearly I'm
using the term 'need' loosely as I need beer food and water so it's more of a 'I would like if you cretins can pull your fingers out and get around to selling me this' sort of thing.

CF/SLI will have issues with scaling and smoothness and there is no replacement for a single GPU which can provide the best performance. I think GV102 could easily be 50% faster than GP102. GV102 is most likely going to be a 5376 cores GPU with 5120 enabled at launch. With IPC improvements and 42.8% more cores than 1080 Ti and 40% more cores on a full GV102 vs GP102 its not so hard.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,765
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CF/SLI will have issues with scaling and smoothness and there is no replacement for a single GPU which can provide the best performance. I think GV102 could easily be 50% faster than GP102. GV102 is most likely going to be a 5376 cores GPU with 5120 enabled at launch. With IPC improvements and 42.8% more cores than 1080 Ti and 40% more cores on a full GV102 vs GP102 its not so hard.
Chip of this core count will be around 750mm2 die size.

Especially when you take into account that we should not expect Nvidia to use HBM2 on consumer products.

Expect also Q2 launch of Volta products, next year, rather than Early 2018.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,587
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Chip of this core count will be around 750mm2 die size.

Especially when you take into account that we should not expect Nvidia to use HBM2 on consumer products.

Expect also Q2 launch of Volta products, next year, rather than Early 2018.
Not necessarily. GP102 has 1.5x the cores of GP104, along with a 1.5x wider memory bus, and the listed die size is exactly 1.5x that of GP104. A straight doubling of GP104 would give 5120 cores, a 512 bit bus and a 628mm² die size.
There might not be a real density increase with the 12nm process, but if GV102 keeps a 384-bit bus the Volta cores would need to be a LOT bigger than the Pascal ones for that die to hit 750mm² with 5120 or 5376 cores.
 
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CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
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Chip of this core count will be around 750mm2 die size.

Especially when you take into account that we should not expect Nvidia to use HBM2 on consumer products.

Expect also Q2 launch of Volta products, next year, rather than Early 2018.
It would probably be in the 600mm^2 range.

GV100's Tensor cores take a massive % of the die if you look at diagrams. Then there's DP, FP16, etc' etc'

There's plenty to tweak from GV100 that wouldn't matter to gamers.
 

Cookie Monster

Diamond Member
May 7, 2005
5,161
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Chip of this core count will be around 750mm2 die size.

Especially when you take into account that we should not expect Nvidia to use HBM2 on consumer products.

Expect also Q2 launch of Volta products, next year, rather than Early 2018.

It wont be 750mm2. Not sure where you get this estimation from but if we look at the downscaling of GP100 to the consumer orientated GP102, we could expect a hypothetical ~627mm2 GV102 with 5376CC (64CC per SM/14SM per GPC/6GPC) with a 384bit GDDR5X/6 memory system. This is probably sometime next year.

Using the same method (GP102 -> GP104), GV104 which could get released this year is in the vincinity of ~418mm2 with 3584CC (64CC per SM/14SM per GPC/4GPC) and 256bit GDDR5/5X/6 memory system. All this assumes that the volta based geforce variants shares some similarities to its compute version (like how SMs are partitioned etc). If its Pascal on steroids, then it may also be different. Thinking its more of the former and would be interesting to know how they achieved a 50% in efficiency in their SMs with Volta over Pascal (This would be hugely beneficial given they are stuck on 16nm or 12nm)

GV104 could very well be possible this year using GDDR5X memory and perhaps their 3rd or is it 4th(?) memory compression technology.

Anyway, the VEGA demo was abit underwhelming to say the least. If history tells us something, theres a lot of signs that it will underperform compared to expectation mainly due to the delays. Or else we would be seeing clear benchmark figures by now, something along the lines of the P100 vs Vega FE deepbench graphs. Doesn't bode too well imo.
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
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It would probably be in the 600mm^2 range.

GV100's Tensor cores take a massive % of the die if you look at diagrams. Then there's DP, FP16, etc' etc'

There's plenty to tweak from GV100 that wouldn't matter to gamers.

Which we would expect, given this is nVidia's second gen on 14nm. The question is are they just going to increase die sizes for the same price brackets or is Volta a true architectural improvement ala Kepler - Maxwell. If its just a refined Pascal the only thing they can really do is increase chip size.

But anyways back to Vega.. If we are expecting 60% higher clocks on fundamentally different and improved 4096 shaders its truly crazy that some people are expecting less than 1080Ti. I think its important to admit when you are wrong and I was pretty wrong about Polaris. Even when I knew the die size I thought it would match a Fury X because of its actual architecture. I knew AMD was due for an upgrade in its actual shaders but I thought Polaris would bring it. I think that improvement lands with Vega..

It wont be 750mm2. Not sure where you get this estimation from but if we look at the downscaling of GP100 to the consumer orientated GP102, we could expect a hypothetical ~627mm2 GV102 with 5376CC (64CC per SM/14SM per GPC/6GPC) with a 384bit GDDR5X/6 memory system. This is probably sometime next year.

Using the same method (GP102 -> GP104), GV104 which could get released this year is in the vincinity of ~418mm2 with 3584CC (64CC per SM/14SM per GPC/4GPC) and 256bit GDDR5/5X/6 memory system. All this assumes that the volta based geforce variants shares some similarities to its compute version (like how SMs are partitioned etc). If its Pascal on steroids, then it may also be different. Thinking its more of the former and would be interesting to know how they achieved a 50% in efficiency in their SMs with Volta over Pascal (This would be hugely beneficial given they are stuck on 16nm or 12nm)

GV104 could very well be possible this year using GDDR5X memory and perhaps their 3rd or is it 4th(?) memory compression technology.

Anyway, the VEGA demo was abit underwhelming to say the least. If history tells us something, theres a lot of signs that it will underperform compared to expectation mainly due to the delays. Or else we would be seeing clear benchmark figures by now, something along the lines of the P100 vs Vega FE deepbench graphs. Doesn't bode too well imo.

You are spot on with this I believe. I think we could see a GV104 this year as well. Probably $699 and beating GP102 by 10-20%. If I had to guess I'd say we see it before Halloween.
 

Cookie Monster

Diamond Member
May 7, 2005
5,161
32
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It would probably be in the 600mm^2 range.

GV100's Tensor cores take a massive % of the die if you look at diagrams. Then there's DP, FP16, etc' etc'

There's plenty to tweak from GV100 that wouldn't matter to gamers.

Well they are the artists impressions of the GPU which may or may not be correct. But your right, basically geforce variants will have most of them stripped or crippled just like their Pascal counterparts e.g. a 1:16 FP64 rate etc just software support/compatibility purpose.

Thinking the gaming VEGA will be the same.
 

JDG1980

Golden Member
Jul 18, 2013
1,663
570
136
Both Polaris and Vega were developed in China, which may explain why they are so underwhelming.
Raja Koduri ""It was running comfortably about 60 and comfortably above any single gpu and we aren't done yet with Vega rx optimizations for prey""

http://imgur.com/a/aqvL7

The problem is that if it takes two Vega GPUs to beat a single top-tier Nvidia card, then Vega is still coming up short.
No one wants to screw around with all the drawbacks of multi-GPU if they can help it. Unless AMD has rolled out some secret sauce that fixes things and causes two GPUs to transparently appear as one big GPU in 100% of applications, then this is basically admitting a shortfall.
If one Vega could beat "any single GPU" then Raja would have said so.
He failed, and should be fired. So should the Chinese development team, and R&D brought back to the USA.
 
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Bouowmx

Golden Member
Nov 13, 2016
1,142
550
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Surely the Internet will get hold of the AMD Radeon RX Vega Frontier Edition when it releases, and beta-test and post results of it, in preparation for Vega Gaming Edition.
 

Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
96
Ugh I can't believe we have 2 more months of waiting and forum crap.

Tell me about it.

I genuinely need some reassurance now. I'm going to lose my entire summer gaming time being stuck with my failing R9 290, I probably won't even get my hands on Vega now until i'm back at Uni and that just really gnarks me. At which point i'll be half tempted to wait to see what's on top around this time next year.

 

Jackie60

Member
Aug 11, 2006
118
46
101
Why aren't there 8 shader units and 8092 plus stream processors with 16GB HBCC and 2-4GB memory bandwidth.
 

Malogeek

Golden Member
Mar 5, 2017
1,390
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yaktribe.org
Surely the Internet will get hold of the AMD Radeon RX Vega Frontier Edition when it releases, and beta-test and post results of it, in preparation for Vega Gaming Edition.
That's a good point, we'll at least have some performance points in a month from now.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
It just seems a bit crazy to think that AMD could skip competing vs Pascal and then come out and competitively go after Volta. Although they did throw a bit of smack talk with the "poor volta" thing. I didn't personally think they were being serious, but you have a strong technical understanding so perhaps they were being serious. Very interesting. Your insight is always much appreciated.
As crazy as trying to compete with Intel on the cpu manner given how many generations behind they were and yet they surpassed our expectations (the reasonable ones not the people who are expecting amd to compete directly with Intel with just 1 cpu drop).


It's not a crazy idea, it's whether it works.

From my own perspective and why I bought heavily into Vega and amd is i truly do believe their new strategy direction puts them primed to be the top gpu performance within the next 3-5 years.

I think just purely based on hardware and what we know and how good Polaris is, we should be seeing a chip that's at least as good as a 1080ti.

But history, amd signaling, etc leads me to believe it's just another amd highend release
Both Polaris and Vega were developed in China, which may explain why they are so underwhelming.


The problem is that if it takes two Vega GPUs to beat a single top-tier Nvidia card, then Vega is still coming up short.
No one wants to screw around with all the drawbacks of multi-GPU if they can help it. Unless AMD has rolled out some secret sauce that fixes things and causes two GPUs to transparently appear as one big GPU in 100% of applications, then this is basically admitting a shortfall.
If one Vega could beat "any single GPU" then Raja would have said so.
He failed, and should be fired. So should the Chinese development team, and R&D brought back to the USA.
Rofl.... Please leave that nationalism out of here. I'm as pro my own country as it gets but I'm crazy enough to believe china can't develop good tech.

The rest of the post... I mean go read the thread I doubt it takes 2 top end Vega chips to compete with a 1080ti. Just think about it logically it doesn't make sense.
 
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railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
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Came across the Twitter convo Raja posted his comment about performance, and it's not very reassuring.

https://twitter.com/GFXChipTweeter/status/869895814545514497

Unless someone has a follow up, the question is regarding CFX Vega, and he states it ran above 60 FPS. That is beyond vague, but considering the convo. CFX Vega running above 60 FPS is expected.

Really glad I stopped waiting on AMD to deliver. But I still prefer a two person fight. At least then I had better options and price tags.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
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Came across the Twitter convo Raja posted his comment about performance, and it's not very reassuring.

https://twitter.com/GFXChipTweeter/status/869895814545514497

Unless someone has a follow up, the question is regarding CFX Vega, and he states it ran above 60 FPS. That is beyond vague, but considering the convo. CFX Vega running above 60 FPS is expected.

Really glad I stopped waiting on AMD to deliver. But I still prefer a two person fight. At least then I had better options and price tags.
If you go up a bit, you'll see the convo and explanation on why people think it was running at close to ~120 fps.

Either way, I'm done waiting for AMD to deliver myself or waiting for you to break up with your GF so I can get those sweet cards.

Next gen I'll pony up all the money Nvidia asks for.

If I ignore EVERYTHING AMD says and go off my pure logic of AMD using 2 GPU generations to fight Pascal, this is a nobrainer going to be a great GPU.
If I actually pay attention to AMD, their past releases, etc. I sadly am expecting another Hawaii release. A Great GPU, but won't be fully realized until it's too late.
 

SPBHM

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2012
5,058
410
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if it was beating the 1080 ti that demo and now the Raja twitter posts would make very little sense, like trying to look worse on purpose,
 
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