Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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nathanddrews

Graphics Cards, CPU Moderator
Aug 9, 2016
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I believe it was more about the PCIe lanes available in Threadripper allowing massive crossfire setups.
Yes that and also many people that don't know anything about CPU-bound/GPU-bound. "4K", "Ultra", "smooth" is all you need to build hype for the masses. I'm not complaining, of course, because as it stands the best most can do is 4K60. Until the target shifts to 8K60/4K120 in a couple years, 4K60 is really the current "halo".
 

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
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I believe it was more about the PCIe lanes available in Threadripper allowing massive crossfire setups.
They had already demo'd Threadripper and 4 frontier edition Vega cards running blender which is a good test of 64 PCIe lanes. Having done that can't see how you honestly believe they demo prey with 2 cards (needing only 32 PCIe lanes) to show off PCIe lanes?
 

crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
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Margins on a $300 1080 would be very close to zero.

You can't keep saying things like this. The 1070, the same exact chip except for GDDR5, sells for barely more than that. In a competition free environment, Nvidia's high volume 1070 money maker is not barely making a profit. And there's no way GDDR5X would turn the 1070 from very profitable to near zero, though I'm all for being corrected on GDDR5X prices.
 
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railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
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If you watched the video that is exactly what Su said the demo was about.

She also said they were beautiful graphics as the screen tore and once the gun shots happened turned into a bad strobe effect with half the screen lit the other half dark.

Just not a good foot forward, regardless what was being demonstrated. Hell, without a FPS counter, they should have just flipped V-sync on.

Oh well, end of July isn't that far off. Here is hoping AMD can bring the mustard. I'm loving what I'm seeing in the CPU side with AMD back in fighting force. Let's make this a two horse race again for us upper tier buyers
 
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Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
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She also said they were beautiful graphics as the screen tore and once the gun shots happened turned into a bad strobe effect with half the screen lit the other half dark.

Just not a good foot forward, regardless what was being demonstrated. Hell, without a FPS counter, they should have just flipped V-sync on.

FYI She didn't say it was beautiful graphics, she said beautiful game performance (which we can't see really!)

Nothing like viewing a video re-uploaded (multiple times?) from a stream recording a projector displaying video from a PC

Gotta love that high quality

/insert needs more jpeg here

But yeah, I dunno what they were thinking with that Demo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6Digv4mJi8
 

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
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Generally dumping product at cost or loss to eliminate competition is frowned upon, and illegal in many countries.

China is quite sad by this.


Yes, selling at cost or below cost to force your competitor to take losses it can not afford is called predatory pricing.

As for Nvidia selling cards at 300 dollars, that would likely kill most of Nvidia profit. And Nvidia would only do it if Vega performs like a gtx 1080 ti and costs 500 dollars. But this would be stupid of AMD to charge so little as it would be a self inflicted wound.

The damage because of pricecuts forced by AMD, would cause big damage to polaris' margins.

AMD's graphic division isn't as generous as someone like Bacon1 makes it out to be. They price their cards relative to the market mostly.


You can't keep saying things like this. The 1070, the same exact chip except for GDDR5, sells for barely more than that. In a competition free environment, Nvidia's high volume 1070 money maker is not barely making a profit. And there's no way GDDR5X would turn the 1070 from very profitable to near zero, though I'm all for being corrected on GDDR5X prices.

The gtx 1070 has a monstrous 1/4 of it's shaders fused off. This makes it a profitable card at lower price points. Defects in a die are usually defect per inch,cm etc and they occur randomly all over the die. This is why part of the yields on big monolithic dies is bad. The 1070 can have defects on any of these 4 quadrants or GPC and still work. Hence it increases the yields tremendously.

The 1080 on the other hand, requires a defect to not be anywhere. This makes the yields drastically less, particularly compared to the 1070 this time around.

Making dies isn't that cheap.

It initially cost AMD 85-90 dollars to make the playstation 4's APU on a much cheaper 28nm node and it had a fused off section to increase yields and was 347mm2. 14/16nm finfet wafers cost about 60-80 percent more.

Also nvidia's gross margins are around 59% which is tremendously bolstered by their data center, professional and auto market. From what I remember, in the auto market, Nvidia was selling their Tegra GPU's for 140 dollars in the auto market which is tremendous for a die that small. And the margins for the data center and professional market speak for themselves. This means the consumer market is dragging down this average.
 

guskline

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2006
5,338
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After watching that replay (I actually watched it live also), Dr. Su's body language tells me she wished she had coupled Threadripper with a GTX1080TI or conversely "what the heck were you guys at RTG doing Raja????"!

Her "thank you Omar" comment, to me was more like "turn that demo off, Vega looks awful!"
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
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But yeah, I dunno what they were thinking with that Demo.
It's amd... We're all wondering why they do what they do.
I just sometimes wish we never got news from them. Majority of news coming straight from amd makes me not want their products
 

lobz

Platinum Member
Feb 10, 2017
2,057
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You can't keep saying things like this. The 1070, the same exact chip except for GDDR5, sells for barely more than that. In a competition free environment, Nvidia's high volume 1070 money maker is not barely making a profit. And there's no way GDDR5X would turn the 1070 from very profitable to near zero, though I'm all for being corrected on GDDR5X prices.
because he's a decent tech enthusiast, but has no idea about finances
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
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After watching that replay (I actually watched it live also), Dr. Su's body language tells me she wished she had coupled Threadripper with a GTX1080TI or conversely "what the heck were you guys at RTG doing Raja????"!

Her "thank you Omar" comment, to me was more like "turn that demo off, Vega looks awful!"
So.. Su division did it well but Raja pretty much screwed up....
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
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AMD's graphic division isn't as generous as someone like Bacon1 makes it out to be. They price their cards relative to the market mostly.

The 1080 on the other hand, requires a defect to not be anywhere. This makes the yields drastically less, particularly compared to the 1070 this time around.

Making dies isn't that cheap.

AMD sold a lot of Fury for under $300 yet according to everyone here they must have lost money on each of those sales?
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
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I'm sorry, but who said 1080s were getting poor yields and most were being turned into 1070s? For all we know, 90% of the chips could be 1080 viable.... you don't know the yields...
 
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tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
305
323
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AMD sold a lot of Fury for under $300 yet according to everyone here they must have lost money on each of those sales?

AMD had no choice but to price them that low after the gtx 1070 came out. The gtx had a $379
-$450 price tag and was faster than a fury X and Fury and most importantly was new. Add in the Nvidia brand and AMD didn't have a choice but to price it around 300 dollars.

Basically AMD needed to sell it at that price or they would stay on store shelves and AMD would be stuck with a whole lot of fury and fury X inventory which it would have to write off and lose the cost on cards themselves.

Basically AMD did the only rational thing. They discontinued Fury and Fury X and sold the remaining stock at or below cost which was basically the most they could get for them at this point considering time and future products were not on it's side.

If AMD could sell Fury/Fury X at a profit at 300 dollars they would still be doing it. Because at that price, its a good product and a valid upgrade from those who want something faster than Polaris. But that fact that it was discontinued shows that they were likely taking a loss at that price.
 
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Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
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But that fact that it was discontinued shows that they were likely taking a loss at that price.

Fury Air were selling as low as $230s same or cheaper than Polaris.

You guys vastly overestimate how much they pay for parts. Its R&D that is the big cost. And thats using the "very expensive" HBM.

If you think it costs so much for parts, how do they manage to sell much faster parts each year for cheaper? Do you think Volta and Vega will start @ 600+ for even the low end parts?
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
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AMD had no choice but to price them that low after the gtx 1070 came out. The gtx had a $379
-$450 price tag and was faster than a fury X and Fury and most importantly was new. Add in the Nvidia brand and AMD didn't have a choice but to price it around 300 dollars.

Basically AMD needed to sell it at that price or they would stay on store shelves and AMD would be stuck with a whole lot of fury and fury X inventory which it would have to write off and lose the cost on cards themselves.

Basically AMD did the only rational thing. They discontinued Fury and Fury X and sold the remaining stock at or below cost which was basically the most they could get for them at this point considering time and future products were not on it's side.

If AMD could sell Fury/Fury X at a profit at 300 dollars they would still be doing it. Because at that price, its a good product and a valid upgrade from those who want something faster than Polaris. But that fact that it was discontinued shows that they were likely taking a loss at that price.
Source on AMD discontinuing Fury X.....

If AMD could sell Fury/Fury X at a profit at 300 dollars they would still be doing it.
But who was Margins?....

These blanket statements without understanding much about financials are really pointless.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
They discontinued Fury and Fury X and sold the remaining stock at or below cost

Generally dumping product at cost or loss to eliminate competition is frowned upon, and illegal in many countries.

China is quite sad by this.

So is it at cost or not? Because according to another forum member if you sold at cost it'd be illegal. So.... we can determine it was not sold at or below cost.....
 

crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
136
People easily forget Summer 2008 through fall 2011. Nvidia had 576mm2 chips selling for far below $300 in the fiercest days of those wars (GP104 is only 314mm2..). Nvidia sold more cards than ATi back then too, and we know they were making profit.

I am certain that dies per mm2 cost some level more today due to transistor count, but die size must be the defining factor. After all,1050 Ti has around 4.5x as many transistors as the 8800 Ultra, but good luck selling the latter chip at barely north of $100.

And Fury prices, really? That card has nearly double the die size and actually has more transistors than the 1080. Even if we believe $240 (cheapest I saw) was breaking even or slight loss, that's not a good example.
 
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Rayniac

Member
Oct 23, 2016
78
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Once all the manufacturing equipment is there, isn't the majority of the manufacturing costs in making/buying the unprocessed silicon wafers? What do those cost per square centimeter?
 

CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
1,153
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Once all the manufacturing equipment is there, isn't the majority of the manufacturing costs in making/buying the unprocessed silicon wafers? What do those cost per square centimeter?
The equipment, and future equipment, and the R&D involved needs to be funded.

Costs include many things allowing these fabs to keep afloat and on the bleeding edge.
 
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