Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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Veradun

Senior member
Jul 29, 2016
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780
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If Vega can't beat Nvidia in perf/w and/or outright performance, then we already know how it will do against Volta. Assuming Vega is 50% more efficient than RX 480, it'll have to consume 270-280 watts on average to match the 1080 TI. That won't bode well at all against Volta.

Your math escapes me, care to elaborate more so that I can understand the reasoning?
 

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
618
296
136
If Vega can't beat Nvidia in perf/w and/or outright performance, then we already know how it will do against Volta. Assuming Vega is 50% more efficient than RX 480, it'll have to consume 270-280 watts on average to match the 1080 TI. That won't bode well at all against Volta.

It uses HBM2 and the current 14nm process used in the RX580 is better than the RX480. Old slides state 225w TDP for Vega and 300w for Vega x2 (and don't forget that 14nm+ should be out before Volta).
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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Your math escapes me, care to elaborate more so that I can understand the reasoning?

It appears I was off. Vega would only be about 10% less efficient than 1080 TI IF it were to be 50% more efficient than RX 480, putting it's power consumption in the 250-260w average range if it's the same speed as 1080 TI.
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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It uses HBM2 and the current 14nm process used in the RX580 is better than the RX480. Old slides state 225w TDP for Vega and 300w for Vega x2 (and don't forget that 14nm+ should be out before Volta).

If the current process for the RX 580 is better, I'd love to see tangible proof. RX 580 and 570 took a huge dump on efficiency and had massive regressions vs. RX 480 and 470.
 

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
618
296
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If the current process for the RX 580 is better, I'd love to see tangible proof. RX 580 and 570 took a huge dump on efficiency and had massive regressions vs. RX 480 and 470.

That's because the clockspeed is higher which uses way more power.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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I'm asking about the actual performance of the chip.

If Big Vega can't beat Big Pascal, how in god's name will Vega 11 be competitive against Volta midrange in 2018?

We don't even know what Vega 10 performs like yet, so there isn't much value in speculating on speculation. I assume AMD has the relevant information to make good decisions about how to design the product and where it should fit into the market. If nothing else, we just see a repeat of what always tends to happen, AMD lowers their prices and NVidia gets a better margin.
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
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We don't even know what Vega 10 performs like yet, so there isn't much value in speculating on speculation. I assume AMD has the relevant information to make good decisions about how to design the product and where it should fit into the market. If nothing else, we just see a repeat of what always tends to happen, AMD lowers their prices and NVidia gets a better margin.
We don't know what Vega performs like yet, that's why we're in this thread.... A thread for rumors and speculation. If you don't want to discuss rumors or speculation on Vega, stop posting and wait til the chip is released.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
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It appears I was off. Vega would only be about 10% less efficient than 1080 TI IF it were to be 50% more efficient than RX 480, putting it's power consumption in the 250-260w average range if it's the same speed as 1080 TI.

FYI aftermarket 1080 Ti use a lot more power once the clocks go up.

286 avg: https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/Zotac/GeForce_GTX_1080_Ti_Amp_Extreme/29.html

251 avg: https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/EVGA/GTX_1080_Ti_SC2/29.html

280 avg: https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/Palit/GeForce_GTX_1080_Ti_GameRock_Premium/28.html

For reference the power hungry 390 and Fury X are lower than those @ 264 and 246.

All of the architecture changes should come with a lot of power savings:

 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,021
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We don't know what Vega performs like yet, that's why we're in this thread.... A thread for rumors and speculation. If you don't want to discuss rumors or speculation on Vega, stop posting and wait til the chip is released.

There's a difference between speculating on big Vega which will come out soon, and there's plenty of evidence we can use to make reasonable guesses, but there's still some wiggle room based on a lot of unknowns and AMD only handing out meager amounts of information.

Worrying that Vega 11 won't be able to compete is kind of pointless. You have to base performance on speculations about Vega 10 performance. The amount of error increases massively. It's like trying to extrapolate Navi performance based on what we think about Vega. There's so much we can be off about on Vega, that it makes predictions about Navi even worse.

There isn't any good reason right now to expect Vega 11 to have no chance, just as there's no reason to expect it to be some kind of monster. It could be a 32 CU chip, or 40 CU chip, or even something else entirely. AMD knows what Vega is capable of better than we do, so I expect them to make decisions based on that and put it where they think it needs to be in order to compete with what they expect NVidia to do.

Yes, its a form for rumors and speculation, but not all rumors and speculation are equally good.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
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If the current process for the RX 580 is better, I'd love to see tangible proof. RX 580 and 570 took a huge dump on efficiency and had massive regressions vs. RX 480 and 470.

you simply can't compare 580 or 480 to Vega. They aren't the same cards. This isn't one giant launch of various forms of Pascal, where you can accurately extrapolate performance across nVidia's entire release this last year, from card to card.

They are different architectures.
 

IllogicalGlory

Senior member
Mar 8, 2013
934
346
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you simply can't compare 580 or 480 to Vega. They aren't the same cards. This isn't one giant launch of various forms of Pascal, where you can accurately extrapolate performance across nVidia's entire release this last year, from card to card.

They are different architectures.
To be fair, he is asking about the process, not the architecture. Vega will presumably be built on the same process as the 580, and whether there are any benefits in that regard over the 480/470 is a good question. I'd say the answer is no. Of course, as you point out, that's not the whole story.

Still, I have nagging worres about its efficiency (and performance in general) and it's simply how different the promotion for Vega is vs. Ryzen. With Ryzen, you got a fair number of demos (handbrake, blender, BF1) from AMD, along with power consumption during those tests relative to the Intel. With Vega, we get some half-assed demos - we got about 10 seconds of random gameplay in Sniper Elite 4, (with an FPS counter, but no average or minimum FPS) a cool demo of HBCC (but tells us little about overall performance) and then some footage (at least in a stress zone) of Prey running on two Vegas, all of them without any hint towards power consumption.

W.R.T numbers AMD showed during tech week, there are some issues with those too. While it beats the Titan Xp in Specview, (or at least 3 out of 4 tests, one conspicuously missing) Quadro drivers give a massive performance boost in those tests (yup, that's a gutted GK110 Quadro smashing a 1080), so Vega FE's position relative to Quadros is shaky.

Just a lot of things that don't bode well.
 

guskline

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2006
5,338
476
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IllogicalGlory, your comments about not boding well make sense and then I tried to factor in the recent announcement of Vega in the upcoming Apple I Mac. I wonder if AMD's RTG division is spread too thin and is really focusing on Apple instead ?

I've decided to stay with a single RX480 for my "all AMD" build with Ryzen 1800x and not jump ship back to Nvidia. I have Nvidia cards in my other 2 rigs and they both work great.

The RX 480 is "right sized" for the monitor I'm using, LG 29UM67 (2560 x 1080 UW) but starts running out of gas at higher resolutions. Conversely both of my Nvidia cards GTX1080 and even the GTX 980 TI SC still rock at 1440p. I had 2 RX480s in CF to "compensate" but just sold one in anticipation of the Vega launch. Missed the tidal wave surge of the RX480/580 bit mining by about a week-such is luck!

I love custom water cooling but held off on adding blocks to both 480s due to cost and the mistaken belief that Vega would appear sooner.

I now get a vibe that big Vega for consumer/gamers (not the Frontier FE) will launch in the end of July (that's been confirmed) but be in extremely short supply for awhile. I prefer to add my own water block and not use AMD's AIO solution such as Fury X so I will probably have to wait significantly longer before a big Vega that uses an EK designed block becomes available.

I just snagged a "scratch and dent" EK RX 480 acetal/copper full water block for a great price from PC Performance and it should be delivered in a few days. I've decided to complete the water cooling cpu/gpu loop for the R7 1800x/RX 480 and ride it out until the Vega I want is really available with the right water block. I estimate 6 months.

This also gives time for RTG to polish the Vega drivers.
 

CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
1,153
136
Why I don't take much stock in Ryzen vs Vega marketing is because GPU's are different from CPU's.

Drivers can make a far bigger impact to even a mature architecture than BIOS or microcode can to a CPU. Essentially, Ryzen was near peak performance for months while Vega might not be ready until launch.
 

OatisCampbell

Senior member
Jun 26, 2013
302
83
101
I don't think that Vega is late. I think that due to limited R&D, they skipped over another major revision in order to add features to compete with Volta before it came out. AMD is focused on the professional market and they need to make sure they get chips in before it's too late. As you've seen, both Vega and Volta have a heavy enthuses on packed math.

For this to be true, Vega would have to make 1080Ti it's chew toy.

Would be great if true, but I think this is "optimistic" based on what we've seen so far.

This kind of thing would turn the GPU market upside down, at least if priced in the $500-$600 range. (NVIDIA has proved pretty conclusively you can add sell cards that beat up all competition pretty badly for over $1000 but not sell a lot of cards in terms of market share)
 

nathanddrews

Graphics Cards, CPU Moderator
Aug 9, 2016
965
534
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The only efficiency I care about is getting maximum FPS for the best price possible.

If Vega is as fast or faster than anything NVIDIA can offer, but costs less, I don't care if it needs it's own air exchanger.
 
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Valantar

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2014
1,792
508
136
Why I don't take much stock in Ryzen vs Vega marketing is because GPU's are different from CPU's.

Drivers can make a far bigger impact to even a mature architecture than BIOS or microcode can to a CPU. Essentially, Ryzen was near peak performance for months while Vega might not be ready until launch.
I think this is a very valid point, especially when you take into consideration how different GPU architectures can be when compared to CPU architectures. The much bigger inter-generational changes in GPU architectures make driver optimization almost as important as hardware optimization, which is never the case with CPUs. Although Fiji hasn't seen the runaway improvements of Hawaii (and to a certain degree Polaris), it's still pretty clear that AMD's Achilles heel in the GPU space has been drivers and software. Fiji was a very unbalanced architecture - probably a bet on some requirements being higher than others at higher resolutions, or some such - which mostly explains why it hasn't blown past the 980Ti (yet?).
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
IllogicalGlory, your comments about not boding well make sense and then I tried to factor in the recent announcement of Vega in the upcoming Apple I Mac. I wonder if AMD's RTG division is spread too thin and is really focusing on Apple instead ?

I've decided to stay with a single RX480 for my "all AMD" build with Ryzen 1800x and not jump ship back to Nvidia. I have Nvidia cards in my other 2 rigs and they both work great.

The RX 480 is "right sized" for the monitor I'm using, LG 29UM67 (2560 x 1080 UW) but starts running out of gas at higher resolutions. Conversely both of my Nvidia cards GTX1080 and even the GTX 980 TI SC still rock at 1440p. I had 2 RX480s in CF to "compensate" but just sold one in anticipation of the Vega launch. Missed the tidal wave surge of the RX480/580 bit mining by about a week-such is luck!

I love custom water cooling but held off on adding blocks to both 480s due to cost and the mistaken belief that Vega would appear sooner.

I now get a vibe that big Vega for consumer/gamers (not the Frontier FE) will launch in the end of July (that's been confirmed) but be in extremely short supply for awhile. I prefer to add my own water block and not use AMD's AIO solution such as Fury X so I will probably have to wait significantly longer before a big Vega that uses an EK designed block becomes available.

I just snagged a "scratch and dent" EK RX 480 acetal/copper full water block for a great price from PC Performance and it should be delivered in a few days. I've decided to complete the water cooling cpu/gpu loop for the R7 1800x/RX 480 and ride it out until the Vega I want is really available with the right water block. I estimate 6 months.

This also gives time for RTG to polish the Vega drivers.
If I can't preorder Vega, and can't pick it up on day 1, I doubt I'll get a Vega high end chip by the end of 2017.
If I can't get it on day 1, I'll potentially be looking at Volta.

Between all of the potential people that want Vega, I think lots of normal gamers will get crowded out.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
For this to be true, Vega would have to make 1080Ti it's chew toy.

Would be great if true, but I think this is "optimistic" based on what we've seen so far.

This kind of thing would turn the GPU market upside down, at least if priced in the $500-$600 range. (NVIDIA has proved pretty conclusively you can add sell cards that beat up all competition pretty badly for over $1000 but not sell a lot of cards in terms of market share)
He may have been talking about Vega 11.

The way for Vega 11 to be competitive with Volta would be to have the power saving features thus further improving efficiency and giving Vega the legs to stand further.

This was the point I was making that amd is quickly improving the chips rather than the top down approach. So Vega 10 as a big chip can compete with a 1080ti, and then weaker Vega 11 may not compete directly with Volta chips that are faster than the 1080ti which we know Nvidia will release, but instead would target the low end midrange market in the x60/Polaris chips.

Since there won't even be a chip out from Nvidia at that price range, it will let amd do what they intended to do with Polaris. Have no competition and sell a great price/perf chip.

So I see a 1080ti competitor out of vega 10 and a Volta gtx 2060 and lower competitor out of vega 11 using improved power efficiency features. As we know what Nvidia generally does this will be amds chance to eat marketshare that Nvidia can't address.

If things hold the way they are, when Navi releases this will further double down on that lower end market. Navi is the time i think amd has significant advantages in delivering products to market that Nvidia doesn't have time to compete with.
Amd is basically running a faster tick tock for gpus which I've been overly bullish on succeeding. Navi is the time it fully shows though just how successful this strategy will be.
 

Malogeek

Golden Member
Mar 5, 2017
1,390
778
136
yaktribe.org
If I can't preorder Vega, and can't pick it up on day 1, I doubt I'll get a Vega high end chip by the end of 2017.
If I can't get it on day 1, I'll potentially be looking at Volta.

Between all of the potential people that want Vega, I think lots of normal gamers will get crowded out.
Add in the FE cards, likely a chunk going to Apple and currency miners and it could be potentially a difficult time obtaining one at release. I honestly doing know what I'm going to do if we end up with a trickle for 2017. I'm definitely not buying Pascal and imo Volta consumer won't be available until 2018.
 

guskline

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2006
5,338
476
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Add in the FE cards, likely a chunk going to Apple and currency miners and it could be potentially a difficult time obtaining one at release. I honestly doing know what I'm going to do if we end up with a trickle for 2017. I'm definitely not buying Pascal and imo Volta consumer won't be available until 2018.

That's why I'm running my single RX 480 till the wheels fall off!
 
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EXCellR8

Diamond Member
Sep 1, 2010
3,982
839
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I'd keep my RX 480 too, but if Vega's closer to what NVIDIA's been putting out I'll likely jump aboard. Plus i have the other 480 installed in the Z170 box that I was going to upgrade to a Ryzen 5... but I don't think I'm doing that now.
 

Snarf Snarf

Senior member
Feb 19, 2015
399
327
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The recent crypto boom has me worried about this release now too. I've been getting calls everyday at our shop with miners looking to gobble up every RX 480 and 470 they can get their hands on. It appears that there is an actual shortage and the retail prices are going to be 30-40% higher than MSRP for a while. If the capacity they have to make GPU's can't satisfy a small surge in sales, it leaves me really worried that if Vega is a good miner that these things are going to be a repeat of Hawaii all over again and a lot of gamers will end up buying 1080ti's that are easier to get a hold of.
 
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