Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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Bouowmx

Golden Member
Nov 13, 2016
1,142
550
146
One of my biggest gripes with Vega isn't it's performance now , but that it will have to compete up until the entire year of 2018. That means that even against GTX 3xxx series. That's ridiculous!

Another thing that intrigues me is Polaris in 2018. Bigger Polaris implementation, or continuing with Radeon 400, 500, or even 600 series refresh with 2304 cores?
asks in a Vega thread; Question for a different day.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
If you don't have money and people, what can you do? At the financial analyst day Raja mentioned that till 2015 the AMD management thought GPUs are a shrinking market. Maxwell probably showed them that it's not the case. But till that time AMD probably reduced the r&d in gpus massively and thought that professional/datacenter are the only gpu markets where they'll be able to make money, so focused more on these parts. But reducing r&d won't work out if your rival is going on with full speed.

From 2015 on amd added more people and r&d to the graphics division, but this won't help vega much. Vega was only 1 year from tapeout, so the people could only help in implementing the architecture, but not change it much anymore. Vegas architecture was build at the time in which amd spend the lowest amout on gpu r&d and they added a ton of features. But unfortunately features can be implemented in efficient and non-efficient ways and when you're restricted with way too low ressources the latter is quite probable.

More proof of this is that they put a LOT of R&D into Ryzen. Which is going to pay off, but those resources had to come from somewhere. And its making more sense that it came at the expense of the Radeon devision.
 
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fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,485
2,363
136
Sad news. AMD managed to pull off miracles in the past, the 3870/4870/5870 cost less than nVidia equivalent, used less power, and performed about the same as nVidia. The Ryzen consumes less power, costs less, and performs within the spitting distance of intel. I was hoping Vega is going to be the same, but it doesn't look to be the case. Vega looks to be very power hungry without performance to justify it. The only question is what it's going to be priced at. Looks like I'll be sticking with 480/580 for the next year or two.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
More proof of this is that they put a LOT of R&D into Ryzen. Which is going to pay off, but those resources had to come from somewhere. And its making more sense that it came at the expense of the Radeon devision.

AMD made the right call putting their money into Zen although it was a pretty easy call. CPUs are the place they have the least market share. It's also a market that is bigger than GPUs. On top of that Intel is the competitor that has been wasting the last 10 years milking the market instead of innovating and executing. Intel's poor performance in the last decade was completely masked by the fact that they had almost no x86 competition. On top of that Intel's dominance was always due to their fab advantage. Anytime AMD released a chip Intel would jump nodes to maintain their lead. That advantage is gone. They still have a great fab, but everyone caught them on nodes. AMD is going to eat into Intel's numbers in short order and Intel is not going to be able to respond quickly enough. AMD's coffers will balloon and they can put more resources into their GPU side. It's a long term struggle because Nvidia keeps getting their products into new markets and their execution is like a nuclear clock. AMD will have a lot of Intel money to fund going after Nvidia though.

I think it's important to note that AMD is absolutely not going after or did not expect to match the 1080Ti with RX Vega. The 1080ish performance that Vega is showing was telegraphed by the below slide IMO.

 
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Samwell

Senior member
May 10, 2015
225
47
101
If the speculation about the timing of Vega tapeout and the previous management design path is true, then Raja was more or less brought on board too late to address much of Polaris or even Vega, to truly "fix" whatever might be inherently wrong with it. I think it has been said before, many times, that Navi would be the first true Raja team design. Hell, it's entirely possible that Vega would have been an even greater disaster were it not for Raja's team eking out whatever improvements they could. Or not, no one knows (publicly, anyway). AMD knows, though. I think it's best to let them decide what is best for AMD going forward and clearly, new management and overall design is light-years ahead of what they had prior to Su.

While i don't see this really as his fault (if vega is really so slow), because of ressource constrains i also don't really get the glorification of Raja and waiting for "his" design. In most cases the team is way more important than the single person. In the whole industry Jim Keller probably would be the only person whom i would give the status that he alone can change things dramatically because he showed it in different companys. Raja sure is a good engineer, but there are many good guys out there.
 
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CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
1,153
136
What I saw in that slide is not covering a higher performance segment. Rather I see them covering the 1/2 FP64 segment which they have left to anguish for years. The original Vega leak pointed at Vega 20 being 1/2 DP equipped.

I wouldn't read into that slide to say anything about FP32 performance.
 
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guachi

Senior member
Nov 16, 2010
761
415
136
Think positive. If you want competition in the GPU market you can do that by buying an AMD CPU, give them some money to develop something better, and use the money you saved buying AMD over Intel to buy the nVidia GPU that's overpriced because of lack of competition.

Or maybe I'm just being cynical.

I'm actually hoping Vega is bad at mining so I can buy one and sell my 480 for more than I paid for it.
 
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railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
Stuka87 is correct. The drummer boy video is right up there with Joe Macri's FuryX "overclocker's dream" comment.

Sad.

That ad to me was beyond tone deaf. You got a little drummer going through the streets, alone, and comes across a warehouse that is stacked to the roof with drums. All this tells me is there is a warehouse of drums (Radeons) that are abandoned or unsold! Haha.

Would have given me an confidence boost if the warehouse was full of other people playing their drums. Nope, just one dude with too many drums.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,024
6,480
136
Ok, I was remembering wrong, it's only 13 months late to the game. If it's an 1080 competitor (it will cost AMD significantly more to produce) then it's over a year late to the game. AMD will have to sell this thing at near cost to sell units plain and simple. Now if it could hash decent at least they'd have the miners but unless custom ROMs can work miracles I don't see it being popular with how power hungry and hot it runs.

A 1070 mines almost the same for less than half the power. 1070's can also run off a single eight pin. Absolutely no reason to consider Vega unless custom ROMs bump the hash rate up to at least 40mh/s.

I have friends that have been waiting for Vega for a solid year because they were going to buy cheaper freesync monitors, I bet money they change their tunes once this disaster is finally released. At least AMD released a game changing product with Ryzen.

I think they need to rush to Navi to be competitive by using the same modular strategy as with Ryzen. Right now AMD doesn't have a design that clocks well so they need to go with more shaders at lower clock speeds where they can be efficient. Normally that means a large die that's not feasible for the mainstream market due to poor yields. But if they can slap several smaller dues together just like with Ryzen, they can have a competitive part without higher costs as they can build one module that can be used across several product stacks.

GCN itself may have hit a wall as well and AMD may need a new design. Unless using the 16-bit RPM capabilities of Vega can yield ~30% performance over not using it, I don't think GCN has a lot of room for growth considering how Vega is stacking up next to Fury. Vega 20 seems as though it would only lose more ground to NVidia's next generation parts.
 
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CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
1,153
136
Think positive. If you want competition in the GPU market you can do that by buying an AMD CPU, give them some money to develop something better, and use the money you saved buying AMD over Intel to buy the nVidia GPU that's overpriced because of lack of competition.

Or maybe I'm just being cynical.

I'm actually hoping Vega is bad at mining so I can buy one and sell my 480 for more than I paid for it.
The only way to spur proper competition is by buying the product right for you. Pity buying a company's product doesn't push them to improve. It rewards poor performance.
 

Elfear

Diamond Member
May 30, 2004
7,116
695
126
The only way to spur proper competition is by buying the product right for you. Pity buying a company's product doesn't push them to improve. It rewards poor performance.

I think you guys are saying the same thing unless an AMD CPU wouldn't fit your needs which is a very small use case IMO.
 

CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
1,153
136
I think you guys are saying the same thing unless an AMD CPU wouldn't fit your needs which is a very small use case IMO.
I'm aware. I just clarified what he said into something easier to understand. Wasn't going against him.
 
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BigDaveX

Senior member
Jun 12, 2014
440
216
116
Now I'm starting to wonder whether someone at AMD struck some sort of Faustian bargain, whereby they were promised a return to the days when they were wiping the floor with Intel's CPU offerings at every price point, but are now finding out that the drawback was that their GPU division would be rewound to the early days after the ATI buyout, when the Radeon X2900XT was getting its backside handed to it by the GeForce 8800GTX
 
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Azix

Golden Member
Apr 18, 2014
1,438
67
91
lmao. so much negativity. Can we have promises to do something humiliating from all the people so sure they know what rx vega is? if they are wrong of course.
 

Elixer

Lifer
May 7, 2002
10,376
762
126
I think it's important to note that AMD is absolutely not going after or did not expect to match the 1080Ti with RX Vega. The 1080ish performance that Vega is showing was telegraphed by the below slide IMO.

You are misreading that chart.
That is for Total Annual Market (TAM), nothing to do with performance at all.
That is saying, since it will launch mid-year, they are short by ~6 months. Next year, they will have the full 12 months.


Did you forget about the "poor volta" rhetoric?

They absolutely were saying Vega is so powerful, that it can even beat Volta, and thus Vega could beat 1080ti, Titain Xp, and all the way down the product line.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
You are misreading that chart.
That is for Total Annual Market (TAM), nothing to do with performance at all.
That is saying, since it will launch mid-year, they are short by ~6 months. Next year, they will have the full 12 months.


Did you forget about the "poor volta" rhetoric?

They absolutely were saying Vega is so powerful, that it can even beat Volta, and thus Vega could beat 1080ti, Titain Xp, and all the way down the product line.

Misreading the chart? TAM functional output is to create product portfolios which are segmented by application and performance within an application. Look to the top where it explains what the bright red is. Premium and professional. AMD Vega is in MI Instinct (data center), Vega FE professional, we know that RX Vega can do 1080 performance. What is left? The very top tier consumer level ie xx80Ti.
As far as beating Volta...again you do think all marketing is literal? In reality zlatan has said that Vega and Volta are in the same product tier in terms of functionality. AMD Instinct cards technically beat Nvidia to stacks lower than their GV100. Although the Better Red campaign certainly isn't aimed at data center.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,024
6,480
136
Did you forget about the "poor volta" rhetoric?

They absolutely were saying Vega is so powerful, that it can even beat Volta, and thus Vega could beat 1080ti, Titain Xp, and all the way down the product line.

Maybe they meant that poor Volta would have the market to itself since AMD wouldn't have anything to compete with it.
 
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JDG1980

Golden Member
Jul 18, 2013
1,663
570
136
lmao. so much negativity. Can we have promises to do something humiliating from all the people so sure they know what rx vega is? if they are wrong of course.

Is it possible that AMD could pull off some kind of miracle at the RX Vega finish line, despite the evidence of both marketing demos and actual FE performance? Sure. But that would be completely unprecedented. In contrast, many past AMD launches have involved elaborate theories to explain away poor performance in leaks, and none of these theories have ever panned out. Back in 2011, I was sure that Bulldozer couldn't possibly be as bad as the leaks seemed to indicate - surely these had to be fake, or it had to be the BIOS, or the Windows scheduler, or whatever. But no - Bulldozer really did suck that bad. Many of us believed that Fiji was going to be better in production than the early leaks indicated, and/or that AMD couldn't possibiy be crass enough to do a 300 series consisting of nothing but rebrands. Wrong again. And with Polaris, we all took the 2.8x perf/watt slides seriously, and assumed RX 480 was going to be competitive with Fiji when in fact it often landed a bit below Hawaii. Polaris wasn't terrible, but still, everyone before release was coming up with stories about how it was going to be much better than the objective data indicated. In fact, on multiple occasions, I saw literally the exact same arguments as with Vega - about how the leaked benchmarks were only using legacy drivers and that better drivers would unlock the card's new features and add 10% or more in performance. That never happened.

AMD's CPU division has earned back its credibility with Ryzen. But as far as I'm concerned, Raja Koduri is a con man with no credibiity. Seriously, what has he ever actually accomplished that makes people think he can pull this off?

Warning issued for inflammatory language.
-- stahlhart
 

Jackie60

Member
Aug 11, 2006
118
46
101
Think positive. If you want competition in the GPU market you can do that by buying an AMD CPU, give them some money to develop something better, and use the money you saved buying AMD over Intel to buy the nVidia GPU that's overpriced because of lack of competition.

Or maybe I'm just being cynical.

I'm actually hoping Vega is bad at mining so I can buy one and sell my 480 for more than I paid for it.
 

Jackie60

Member
Aug 11, 2006
118
46
101
I'm not here to subsidise mediocrity, AMD need to justify my purchase or they can go flip themselves. When any GPU or CPU manufacturer starts caring about me then I'll reciprocate. I'll buy AMD when they offer something better, something equal at less or the same price or something nearly as good costing quite a bit less.
 

Jackie60

Member
Aug 11, 2006
118
46
101
It's impossible therefore AMD are still trying to hype the disastrous disappointment that is RX Vega. Double fail!
 
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