Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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Pariah

Elite Member
Apr 16, 2000
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The 390 was not consistently faster than the 970 at launch especially when factoring in overclocking. So, it was not a year after launch as you said. 970 was released in September of 2014. It took until 2016 for AMD, the date range you gave, to consistently eek past the 970 in price performance. That is not an accomplishment worthy of praise as you seem to think. The GTX 580 was a refresh released 8 months after the GTX 480. Nvidia is certainly capable of pulling meaningful gains out of a refresh in a short amount of time. Nvidia has such a lead at this point that they don't even have to release a refresh when Vega is released in Q2. A year after the release of Pascal, with few if any manufacturing issues left to be worked out, Nvidia should have little trouble dropping the prices of the 1070 and 1080 by a $100. 1070's are going for $370 now. Can you imagine a $280 1070? A sub $500 1080 and then a 1080Ti in the $750 range? Vega will end up just like the Fury X. AMD will target a certain price point with Vega and then Nvidia will adjust prices and release a Ti variant and blow up AMD's pricing structure.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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The 390 was not consistently faster than the 970 at launch especially when factoring in overclocking. So, it was not a year after launch as you said. 970 was released in September of 2014. It took until 2016 for AMD, the date range you gave, to consistently eek past the 970 in price performance. That is not an accomplishment worthy of praise as you seem to think. The GTX 580 was a refresh released 8 months after the GTX 480. Nvidia is certainly capable of pulling meaningful gains out of a refresh in a short amount of time. Nvidia has such a lead at this point that they don't even have to release a refresh when Vega is released in Q2. A year after the release of Pascal, with few if any manufacturing issues left to be worked out, Nvidia should have little trouble dropping the prices of the 1070 and 1080 by a $100. 1070's are going for $370 now. Can you imagine a $280 1070? A sub $500 1080 and then a 1080Ti in the $750 range? Vega will end up just like the Fury X. AMD will target a certain price point with Vega and then Nvidia will adjust prices and release a Ti variant and blow up AMD's pricing structure.

I think "Pascal refresh" will ultimately amount to shifting everything down a tier and taking advantage of better yields to fully unlock the GP102 for the Titan.
 
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SpaceBeer

Senior member
Apr 2, 2016
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I think production will be too expensive even in next year. We might get price drop in a year, but I doubt 1070 could go bellow 300$. Maybe to 330$ ± little bit.

Vega prices could also depend on Zen. As someone mentioned, If AMD could sell 170mm^2 chip for 300$ to end user, they don't need to bother to earn a lot by selling 2x larger GPU chips for the same price (or even lower). But instead focus on market share gains, which could bring them money on the long run. So what they need is good product with good price. Doesn't have to be the fastest one or most efficient. Just good bang for the buck
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
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Straight from the horses mouth, coming out in the middle of 2017:

AMD: Vega products coming out in the middle part of 2017

Alibaba is introducing a current generation of GPUs, but we do have Vega products coming out in the middle part of 2017. And that should help us from an overall standpoint of being more competitive in a space that, for example, our competitor has taken that world by storm. Everybody is talking about GPU acceleration.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/402...ent-presents-barclays-global-technology-media

That's 1 year after GP104.
 
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happy medium

Lifer
Jun 8, 2003
14,387
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not a single word about vega in that link.

I read English good and I don't see it either.

December 8, 2016 1:00 PM ET

Executives

Devinder Kumar - Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Analysts

Unidentified Company Representative

All right. I guess, we’ll get started here. First, welcome to everybody in the room. Thanks for joining us and those listening in online. I’m very pleased to host Devinder Kumar, Senior Vice President, CFO and Treasurer at Advanced Micro Devices.

So, I guess, we'll kick off the question we've been asking almost all the companies this week. Just broadly, what is the single most important development that you see driving your success in 2017?

Devinder Kumar

I think it’s a culmination of a lot of the stuff we’ve been looking on over the last couple of years, in particular, in 2014 and 2015, but 2016 has been a year of execution. We’ve executed lot of things in terms of joint venture partnerships. We've obviously brought to the fall, products that we’ve been looking on for a multiple number of years. We invested in software.

We've invested on a targeted basis in R&D and some of the things that we have done from a longer-term standpoint, including the multi-year WSA and then you've read in the press all of the news about the static JV in China, the ATMP JV that we did. And also most recently saying that Zen is on track and executing to stabilize the PC side of the business, but also a very healthy business from the customer side.

Unidentified Company Representative

Excellent. Just break it up, before we dig into some of the segments. Could you talk a little bit about that the joint venture with China, maybe if you could give a little bit of color of exactly what it is and how it's progressing from your view?

Devinder Kumar

Sure, I can do that. So that was announced in the Q1 timeframe. It is with the consortium in China, which the Chinese Academy of Sciences bought off called the static JV. It was an IP licensing arrangement on the technology bases, to the tune of $293 million. And we’ve said pretty publicly and also be on track to get half of that cash and the recognition on the P&L in the first two years, 2016 and 2017, well on track to do that with about $82 million we recognized this year and the remainder to be done in 2017.

It's really a licensing arrangement, we are re-uploading the technology to the consortium. They're going to take the technology and go and develop SoCs that are specifically targeted for the server market in China. And at some point allow the SOC, they ship the product. They go ahead and sell the product within the Chinese market and we get a royalty stream on that. It was a very unique way for us to take X86-based technology and have a technology arrangement with a very important player and a partner in China.

Unidentified Company Representative

How - I guess, how significant could you see that royalty stream being - when would you expect that sort of an impact?

Devinder Kumar

The technology has just been transferred right now. So, I would say, it's more in the 2018, 2019 timeframe that the SOC comes out and then something that’s specifically to the regional market in China, which is one of the biggest regional markets on the server space from a global standpoint.

Unidentified Company Representative

Okay. On the licensing front, I won’t put you on the spot about specific recent rumors but say at least there has been some talk that you might have a partnership with one of your largest competitors, rather than talking about that specifically, could you just talk about your appetite more broadly for other licensing partnerships and what type of willingness you’d have to do those?

Devinder Kumar

Yes, I think, we've talked about IP monetization in particular partnerships. So, AMD with the treasure full of IP that we have, we have 10,000 plus patterns, half of them are US-based. And we saw over the last two or three years that we can go ahead and partner with folks, where we don't want to directly enter market. We will be very careful in terms of who we partner with, where it doesn't come back and directly compete with us in areas that we want to go put products in, and very happy to do on a fair basis a deal with the partner to go ahead and monetize that IP, get cash, benefit the P&L and balance sheet in particular.
 

ShintaiDK

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Apr 22, 2012
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Straight from the horses mouth, coming out in the middle of 2017:

AMD: Vega products coming out in the middle part of 2017



http://seekingalpha.com/article/402...ent-presents-barclays-global-technology-media

Wait, wait, wait... middle of 2017... for that 4096 shader part formerly known as Greenland? With HBM2? That, based on all reasonable calculations considering GCN's performance capabilities, would barely be able to compete with GP104 and will definitely still cost either more to make and/or more power to run?





Yeah, GP102's gonna bury this thing before it's even born and Volta might dig up the corpse just to smack it around a bit more. I really don't know anything positive or even neutral to say about this. Maybe AMD will resurrect their CPU division at the cost of their GPU division. I honestly preferred it the other way around.


That's 1 year after GP104.

And 2 years after the aftermarket GM200, which AMD has yet to match/beat. I don't know which way is up anymore.
 

USER8000

Golden Member
Jun 23, 2012
1,542
780
136
This is the whole paragraph:

Devinder Kumar

Yes, I think if you put in perspective, the ATI acquisition was almost 10 years to the day today. It was about the strategy to put the graphic and CPU on the same chip in the form of an APU. But, as it turns out, the attach rates have gone down a lot slower than everybody expected. Those three GPUs are still significant market opportunity. We've made some good strides in terms of lot of these products we entered in the middle part of 2016, and gain market share significantly on [indiscernible] graphics space.

But and probably thanks to the way the market has evolved. But we see opportunities and everybody sees opportunities, the GPUs in this particular space can be a growing market and it’s a workload and they use it more than allow us to do that, we've invested in that area.

And you've seen us recently or you’ve seen an announcement recently with Alibaba in China and even Google that has announced engagement with AMD on the GPU side to be utilizing the data center space. And as you rightfully observed in the data center space or in any space, but data center, in particular, you have CPUs, which we have and we’re refreshing the product with Zen. But we also have GPUs that are coming up.

Alibaba is introducing a current generation of GPUs, but we do have Vega products coming out in the middle part of 2017. And that should help us from an overall standpoint of being more competitive in a space that, for example, our competitor has taken that world by storm. Everybody is talking about GPU acceleration.

And I just caution that this is an investment that pays off over the longer-term. But it is definitely an area that we are very focused and go invest and capture fair share in that particular area over a multi-year period. But that is really the future in terms of where the next level of growth could come in terms of machine learning, deep learning, the training in forums, and all of the stuff that you read about in that particular space.


They talk about the Alibaba deal though which is for FirePro cards and GPU acceleration,so is that the AMD guy saying FirePro Vega cards are coming out in the middle of 2017 or consumer Vega cards? I can't see Alibaba using consumer cards.
 

SpaceBeer

Senior member
Apr 2, 2016
307
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It makes sense. Radeon Pro arrived half a year after RX, so if Pro cards based on Vega will be available in the mid 2017, that means RX Vega cards should be released in the beginning of the year
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
It makes sense. Radeon Pro arrived half a year after RX, so if Pro cards based on Vega will be available in the mid 2017, that means RX Vega cards should be released in the beginning of the year

Nah, AMD itself was saying in a prior investor deck that "Vega for enthusiasts" will come in the first half of 2017. You don't say "first half of 2017" when you mean "beginning of 2017," especially when you don't currently have products in that market.
 

SpaceBeer

Senior member
Apr 2, 2016
307
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116
Maybe. Maybe Vega for enthusiasts (replacement for Fury) will come in the first half of 2017, but Vega for "higher perfrormance" market (replacement for R9 390) comes earlier (maybe Q1). Lots of guesses. Not that I care, cause it's out of my range anyway
 

kraatus77

Senior member
Aug 26, 2015
266
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Nah, AMD itself was saying in a prior investor deck that "Vega for enthusiasts" will come in the first half of 2017. You don't say "first half of 2017" when you mean "beginning of 2017," especially when you don't currently have products in that market.

When you say 1st half it also means it can be released from 1st month to 6th. so yes it can be anything from beginning to end of half year, until they specify next time. otherwise they could have just said Q2 or mid year like they did last year.
 
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Head1985

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2014
1,866
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I doubt any refresh could bring significant boost. So Vega will compete Pascal, and the response will be Volta. But I'm not sure how different upcoming architectures could be, or how higher clocks they can get with 14/16nm FinFET. So I think we'll se brute force approach (more cores ) in next 1.5 or 2 years
Pascal refresh can bring around 30% more performance.
nv can just rename GTX1080(with faster ram and core) to GTX1170 and it will be 30% faster than current GTX1070.They also can release cutdown GP102 as GTX1180 with another 30% perf vs current GTX1080.
Same thing NV did with kepler BTW.

Or they can add 1GPC+more SP(2304) to current GTX1070 and add GDDR5x and it will be 25% faster than current GTX1070.
And ADD faster ram and core to current GTX1080 and it will be 10-15% faster than current GTX1080.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
When you say 1st half it also means it can be released from 1st month to 6th. so yes it can be anything from beginning to end of half year, until they specify next time. otherwise they could have just said Q2 or mid year like they did last year.

If you are optimistic about Qtr1, then you say Qtr1. You tell your investors 1st Half because you are optimistic about releasing by the end of June.

All that I get from this is that "Vega" will be available by the end of June. I don't think anyone knows if that means that all Vega hardware will be released, or that the first Vega boards will be released by then. Any news from any source that is not AMD about seeing a Vega in January or Qtr1 is pure speculation at this point. I personally think that 1st half means the first generations of Vega 10 and 11 will be released by then, but again--that's just my guess.

IIRC, AMD had earlier announced a QTR1 2017, release for Vega (back in ~Qtr2, 2016?), but then that was changed to 1st half 2017 at an investors call some time in Qtr3 of this year. Again, I recall that is what happened, so I could be wrong, but if that was the way things progressed then I think it is a near certainty that when they update scheduling to an additional quarter, that is what they mean
 
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kraatus77

Senior member
Aug 26, 2015
266
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They never said anything about Q1 launch of vega. and still haven't. also i'm not even optimistic about its Q1 launch. i expect it to come after zen around may-june.

but the thing is i'm also not dismissing the fact they have said 1st half and they could launch it with zen for full high end amd build. so that's a possibility too.

it's about being 50% positive, 50% negative as oppose to being 100% negative as others are in this thread.
 

SpaceBeer

Senior member
Apr 2, 2016
307
100
116
Vega was always 2017, but the first time it showed on the official roadmap, it was positioned very close to the beginning of the year. Therefore we assumed it's Q1
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
They never said anything about Q1 launch of vega. and still haven't. also i'm not even optimistic about its Q1 launch. i expect it to come after zen around may-june.

but the thing is i'm also not dismissing the fact they have said 1st half and they could launch it with zen for full high end amd build. so that's a possibility too.

it's about being 50% positive, 50% negative as oppose to being 100% negative as others are in this thread.
May just be 1H of 2017 because it could launch in March or February but may not make it til April. So 1H to cover themselves.
They may not want Nvidia to know just what Vega is going to be positioned against.
Who knows.

To me it doesn't inspire confidence to have a 1H range.
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,359
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WCCFTech... I'm going to take it with a shaker full of salt.
 
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