Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

Page 8 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
Status
Not open for further replies.

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
And AMD targeted those segments and that pricing because they had to, not because they wanted to. When Pitcarin launched >$300 launching a new card on a new node at a price that was essentially unlowerable was not a smart thing to do. The $200 480 was most definitely a bait and switch as those cards are nowhere to be found for instance -> $200 480 = marketing speak.



People will not pay whatever, they will pay up to what they think the card is worth. The problem is that Nvidia has been working hard to cause the consumer to overvalue their GPUs.



This is a major problem that AMD has to resolve. The problem is that Nvidia has all the brand recognition. If two products are more or less identical in terms of features and price the average consumer will choose the Nvidia option. Many of the people on this forum will do the same.
I don't know if you're posting these statements to provoke arguments, but just in case you're ignorant of the actual world market for GPUs, I'll state the following.

The under $300 segment is about 80% of total sales with the under $200 segment a major part of that 80%.

If you want to increase market share and revenue, don't you think it wise to target those segments?
 

Piroko

Senior member
Jan 10, 2013
905
79
91
Theoretical FLOPS generally mean very little between architectures as design tradeoffs greatly determine effective throughput. AMD has always been shader heavy, even to the point what that kind of throughput is unutilized (Tahiti, Fiji) due to bottlenecks elsewhere.

I agree that as time has gone on games have become more and more shader heavy (probably due to consoles).
Nah, this trend has been going on since at least the unified shaders days. The amount of polygons, viewing distance and number of objects really didn't scale all that much compared to the amount and precision of shader effects that is applied today.

As for the number of Flops, it did start to correlate somewhat after AMD switched to SIMD as well and I'm going to argue that Tahiti has shown the same trend, putting itself (~4Tflops) in front of GK104 (~3.2 Tflops) in a fairly consistent fashion nowadays. As for Fiji, yes, that chip has some hefty architecture quirks that hamper its performance. At the same time I won't be surprised if we see 2017 titles show Fiji in a better light than 2015 titles (as long as it isn't murdered by vram). It does have 8.6 Tflops after all, which is around the same as a 980 Ti @ 1500 MHz.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,808
29,559
146
I don't know if you're posting these statements to provoke arguments, but just in case you're ignorant of the actual world market for GPUs, I'll state the following.

The under $300 segment is about 80% of total sales with the under $200 segment a major part of that 80%.

If you want to increase market share and revenue, don't you think it wise to target those segments?

For the short term, yes. But those largest segments of the dGPU market are the segments that have been steadily declining, probably due to quality iGPU options that are starting to overlap those lowest-end tiers and should be creeping into the midrange tiers over the next 2 years with Zen's APUs.

The only segment that is actually growing within the dGPU market (A market that, overall, is steadily shrinking) is the enthusiast/high end market. This is pretty much owned by nVidia right now because I think the Firepro class cards while great, don't represent a significant enough amount of units in that pro designer segment to make a real dent in the diversity that nVidia offers there.

AMD still has very far to climb. THe numbers a few weeks ago about them gaining ~10% in dGPUs is promising, but that is in the largest, yet shrinking segments of the market, on top of those numbers probably being attributed to nVidia simply shipping half the units they shipped compared to the previous quarter. I think to difference is something like AMD shipping an extra 100k units vs nVidia shipping 2-3mill less units than before.

That's a sobering reality.

This is why Vega is so important. I think there is still time for them to be competitive in that enthusiast class and gain some real market & revenue share and establish a nice chunk out of the only segment that will matter 4-5 years from now--but Vega has to deliver. I don't think they have any room to maneuver if they can't gain any performance wins or real performance value, but as the nVidia partisans have said over and over again, Vega has to gain margin wins for AMD. Don't expect this to be some $300-350 minimum tier pricing if it is a great card that AMD can establish market share with. They will have to price it higher, and it has to be worth that price, imo. The good thing is that nVIdia has currently given them a ton of wiggle room to undercut and still grab some nice profits....but nVidia will have been there so long by the time Vega approaches that they just need to cut 1070/1080 price by ~$100 each and then toss the 1080ti into the field.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
For the short term, yes. But those largest segments of the dGPU market are the segments that have been steadily declining, probably due to quality iGPU options that are starting to overlap those lowest-end tiers and should be creeping into the midrange tiers over the next 2 years with Zen's APUs.

The only segment that is actually growing within the dGPU market (A market that, overall, is steadily shrinking) is the enthusiast/high end market. This is pretty much owned by nVidia right now because I think the Firepro class cards while great, don't represent a significant enough amount of units in that pro designer segment to make a real dent in the diversity that nVidia offers there.

AMD still has very far to climb. THe numbers a few weeks ago about them gaining ~10% in dGPUs is promising, but that is in the largest, yet shrinking segments of the market, on top of those numbers probably being attributed to nVidia simply shipping half the units they shipped compared to the previous quarter. I think to difference is something like AMD shipping an extra 100k units vs nVidia shipping 2-3mill less units than before.

That's a sobering reality.

This is why Vega is so important. I think there is still time for them to be competitive in that enthusiast class and gain some real market & revenue share and establish a nice chunk out of the only segment that will matter 4-5 years from now--but Vega has to deliver. I don't think they have any room to maneuver if they can't gain any performance wins or real performance value, but as the Nvidia partisans have said over and over again, Vega has to gain margin wins for AMD. Don't expect this to be some $300-350 minimum tier pricing if it is a great card that AMD can establish market share with. They will have to price it higher, and it has to be worth that price, imo. The good thing is that nVIdia has currently given them a ton of wiggle room to undercut and still grab some nice profits....but nVidia will have been there so long by the time Vega approaches that they just need to cut 1070/1080 price by ~$100 each and then toss the 1080ti into the field.
As some have been saying. The first priority of AMD is to stabilize itself financially by stopping losses and begin to generate some profits, however small that might be. Then you can look at competing and winning across all market segments as this takes more investments.

The $100-$150 card performance is much higher than iGPU levels. Sub $100 cards for sure have problems and these are not being designed anymore.

Not you here, but I see some thinking as if this is a sports team where you change the coach and some players and go on to dominate the next season from a previous disastrous one.

Folks, it doesn't work like this, so all the naive cries of small margins relative to Nvidia just exposes your ignorance about how these businesses operate. This is a long multi-year process that has just begun.

I don't see AMD being in a position to dominate the performance table before Navi. They will have to settle for better perf/$, which might not be so terrible, with Nvidia's high pricing allowing reasonable margins at lower prices. For this to work however, They MUST have competitors at ROUGHLY all performance levels to prevent Nvidia from selectively reducing prices on the only parts being made by AMD so as to stifle margins in that segment. By competing across all segments they prevent Nvidia from targeting them selectively without also doing some self damage.

In the end I predict the following.
Vega holding the line and offering better perf/$ than the Nvidia equivalent, but not the performance crown.
Navi is where the real gains in absolute performance will be made and AMD will try to achieve higher margins together with higher market share.
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,808
29,559
146
As some have been saying. The first priority of AMD is to stabilize itself financially by stopping losses and begin to generate some profits, however small that might be. Then you can look at competing and winning across all market segments as this takes more investments.

The $100-$150 card performance is much higher than iGPU levels. Sub $100 cards for sure have problems and these are not being designed anymore.

Not you here, but I see some thinking as if this is a sports team where you change the coach and some players and go on to dominate the next season from a previous disastrous one.

Folks, it doesn't work like this, so all the naive cries of small margins relative to Nvidia just exposes your ignorance about how these businesses operate. This is a long multi-year process that has just begun.

I don't see AMD being in a position to dominate the performance table before Navi. They will have to settle for better perf/$, which might not be so terrible, with Nvidia's high pricing allowing reasonable margins at lower prices. For this to work however, They MUST have competitors at ROUGHLY all performance levels to prevent Nvidia from selectively reducing prices on the only parts being made by AMD so as to stifle margins in that segment. By competing across all segments they prevent Nvidia from targeting them selectively without also doing some self damage.

In the end I predict the following.
Vega holding the line and offering better perf/$ than the Nvidia equivalent, but not the performance crown.
Navi is where the real gains in absolute performance will be made and AMD will try to achieve higher margins together with higher market share.

I agree. I think there is still time for AMD to be significant in the enthusiast tier before it outgrows the size of the midrange and lower tiers--it would take several years, I think. But it really does hinge on Vega being able to do what you are saying it needs to do: "hold the line," so to speak. Honestly, I would bet that it can do that pretty easily (look how great 290/290x were) but their problem will still be perception and in this case, their timing to get there. I do worry that if 490 appears mid-late Q2 2017, this may be a tough sell to consumers that might be looking at reduced prices on matured 1070/1080 offerings.

I think AMD's current strategy is really quite sound...it just has to work. The recent public offering of $1 billion shares is a much bigger deal than people are giving credit for AMD. paying down significant chunk of that crippling debt, allow them to shave about $50mill/qtr in those interest payments frees up tons more cash for them to start pumping back into starved R&D. They gained even more freedom with their wafer agreements, even though it seems on paper to cost them more, I think it's the smart decision because it allows them to pump out more chips than before.

Siu mentioned that they were a bit shocked with the demand for 480/470 and sold out first stack faster than they imagined. If that's real consumer confidence (yes, there's a strong mining component, but so what? a card sale for AMD is a card sale for AMD) then I think AMD is positioning themselves to release the first Vega offerings ar roughly the same quantity or more than Polaris which, I imagine, isn't what you would typically do comparing mainstream/med and upper/enthusiast cards? I dunno--that's pure speculation obviously.

Basically: I think they are making the right moves with what they have, it just has to work.
 

Shmee

Memory & Storage, Graphics Cards Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 13, 2008
7,542
2,542
146
Guys, the off topic, thread crapping, AMD bashing needs to stop. This is a topic about speculation of upcoming cards, NOT for discussing profit and business strategy. If this cannot stay on topic, it will be closed.
 
Reactions: swilli89

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
Listen to Bogg now as I am about to speak truth. Vega will be good and reasonably priced. It will result in happiness in both camps. Fast Vega and 1080ti priced pretty good will come to pass. To avoid supply shortages befalling you, spread some water from your loop upon the doorsteps of your house and you will be spared.
 

ConsoleLover

Member
Aug 28, 2016
137
43
56
I think the biggest issue for AMD has been the new 14nm process. I think because its generally designed to power their new Zen CPU it might not have been ready for GPU, thus why the Polaris cards all run at 1200Mhz up till 1350Mhz overclock, yet Nvidia seems to run at 1500, and many can overclock up till 1900.

I think with a more mature 14nm process and what AMD have learned from the Polaris architecture, they can win over Nvidia. Also consider that Nvidia's next GPU's are refreshes, these do not perform significantly better than the gpu's they replace, its usually smaller bumps in performance for the same price. Trying to court undecided buyers.
 

Head1985

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2014
1,866
699
136
I think the biggest issue for AMD has been the new 14nm process. I think because its generally designed to power their new Zen CPU it might not have been ready for GPU, thus why the Polaris cards all run at 1200Mhz up till 1350Mhz overclock, yet Nvidia seems to run at 1500, and many can overclock up till 1900.

I think with a more mature 14nm process and what AMD have learned from the Polaris architecture, they can win over Nvidia. Also consider that Nvidia's next GPU's are refreshes, these do not perform significantly better than the gpu's they replace, its usually smaller bumps in performance for the same price. Trying to court undecided buyers.
I dont see this happen.If 232mm2 256bit polaris cant beat 200mm2 192bit GTX1060 then vega will not beat GTX1080.
Possible scenario:Vega tie with GTX1080 and because AMD never cutdown GPU so much cutdown VEGA will still destroy GTX1070 by 15%.I am pretty sure NV already now have ready GTX1070 refresh(Mobile GTX1070 with 2048SP and 4xGPC is 10% faster than desktop at same clock)+ they can ADD to that GDDR5x and surprise refresh GTX1070 is 15% faster at same clock.Something like 1070TI.That 1070TI will still have 150w TDP vs 200-225w cutdown vega-NV won again.
Then they can release 1080Ti(its 100% already ready to launch) they just waiting for AMD and milking people with TITANXP.

Like i said before:NV is CAT AMD is MOUSE.They just cant win this unless they will have more Money and change architecture.
 

gamervivek

Senior member
Jan 17, 2011
490
53
91
Going by die size alone is wrong because the new leaks put the clockspeeds for Vega much higher than Polaris. Even die size wise, Vega will be around 400mm2 and hold a bigger advantage compared to GP104 than Polaris to GP106.

12TFLOPs for professional cards would mean they are clocked at 1450Mhz+ and even higher for desktop versions, which would put them easily over 1080 but very likely still slower than Titan XP. Getting such high clocks in a few months time does seem pretty unlikely though.
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
6,734
514
126
www.facebook.com
Going by die size alone is wrong because the new leaks put the clockspeeds for Vega much higher than Polaris. Even die size wise, Vega will be around 400mm2 and hold a bigger advantage compared to GP104 than Polaris to GP106.

12TFLOPs for professional cards would mean they are clocked at 1450Mhz+ and even higher for desktop versions, which would put them easily over 1080 but very likely still slower than Titan XP. Getting such high clocks in a few months time does seem pretty unlikely though.

Given current die size and perf/w characteristics, small Vega will need to be ~375mm2 and ~240 watts in game to keep up with the 1080. If small Vega is using HBM, then power requirements would drop by 15 watts or so.

AMD's claims of P10's efficiency improvements leading up to release was nowhere close to reality. AMD demonstrated only minimal perf/w gains throughout the entire 28nm process with each GCN iteration. Any improvements Vega will have in perf/w outside of HBM use will be (more than likely) minimal.
 
Reactions: Sweepr

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,762
4,667
136
Given current die size and perf/w characteristics, small Vega will need to be ~375mm2 and ~240 watts in game to keep up with the 1080. If small Vega is using HBM, then power requirements would drop by 15 watts or so.

AMD's claims of P10's efficiency improvements leading up to release was nowhere close to reality. AMD demonstrated only minimal perf/w gains throughout the entire 28nm process with each GCN iteration. Any improvements Vega will have in perf/w outside of HBM use will be (more than likely) minimal.
Two stacks of HBM2 at 2 Gbps would draw 16W total, compared to 8 GB GDDR5 256 Bit with 37W power consumption from RX 480.

Polaris GPU alone at stock clocks draws around 110W of power. Now much more power would draw GPU with 2 memory controllers instead of 8 32 bit ones? Every unnecessary part, that is taken out of the die saves power.

And last bit. People still believe that Vega will behave just like Polaris is. It will not, for simple reason. It is completely new architecture.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,762
4,667
136
I have spotted this. How the hell did they were able to squeeze Polaris 10 into 95W thermal envelope, with 60W lower power than it is on desktop?

Better binning? MXM board draws that much less? Not overdone voltages on desktop parts?
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
6,734
514
126
www.facebook.com
And last bit. People still believe that Vega will behave just like Polaris is. It will not, for simple reason. It is completely new architecture.

The hype train with AMD future releases never ceases to amaze me. There is simply no reality check that can slow it down.
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,142
131
Two stacks of HBM2 at 2 Gbps would draw 16W total, compared to 8 GB GDDR5 256 Bit with 37W power consumption from RX 480.

Nowhere near this number - and 4GB vs 8GB RX 480 reviews show this:

 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
Two stacks of HBM2 at 2 Gbps would draw 16W total, compared to 8 GB GDDR5 256 Bit with 37W power consumption from RX 480.

Polaris GPU alone at stock clocks draws around 110W of power. Now much more power would draw GPU with 2 memory controllers instead of 8 32 bit ones? Every unnecessary part, that is taken out of the die saves power.

And last bit. People still believe that Vega will behave just like Polaris is. It will not, for simple reason. It is completely new architecture.
This is completely ignored by some posters.

The reality is that we have no idea how much of a difference this will make, so any comparison by extrapolating Polaris is in effect making a lowest possible case for Vega.

Not realistic at all, but some get their jollies from doing that.
 

Bryf50

Golden Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,429
51
91
Nowhere near this number - and 4GB vs 8GB RX 480 reviews show this:


I don't see how you can draw a conclusion based on anything in that chart. You do know the 4GB card doesn't actually have half the GDDR5 chips?
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,142
131
I don't see how you can draw a conclusion based on anything in that chart. You do know the 4GB card doesn't actually have half the GDDR5 chips?

Oh, I guess you missed the fact that this isn't the reference design:

The PCB you're looking at is from the 4GB card. It uses Hynix memory, and only 4GB rather than a flashable 8GB, rather than Samsung currently housed on the two 8GB-equipped Nitros.

Another website:



Less than 10W difference, and that's mostly because of slightly higher core/memory clocks on the 8GB model:

The Nitro's trick in keeping an enclosed heatsink is to locate the 8-pin power connector at the front, providing up to 225W of juice to the card. Remember we mentioned two models? The 4GB iteration is clocked in at 1,306MHz boost core and 7,000MHz memory while the 8GB OC raises the boost core to 1,342MHz and uses 8,000MHz-rated memory as standard.

http://hexus.net/tech/reviews/graphics/94969-sapphire-radeon-rx-480-nitro-4gb-8gb-oc/

Another hint: We have 8GB GDDR5 Tesla P4 parts with GP104 at 50W. So no, the memory chips don't draw anywhere near 37W.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,762
4,667
136
Oh, I guess you missed the fact that this isn't the reference design:



Another website:



Less than 10W difference, and that's mostly because of slightly higher core/memory clocks on the 8GB model:



http://hexus.net/tech/reviews/graphics/94969-sapphire-radeon-rx-480-nitro-4gb-8gb-oc/
Ok, and what does this have anything to do with 8GB HBM2 made from 2 stacks of 4 GB, and power consumption of it?
The hype train with AMD future releases never ceases to amaze me. There is simply no reality check that can slow it down.
There is no hype train. Its only your assumption. Vega is Graphics IPv9, Tonga/Fiji was Graphics IPv8, Polaris was Graphics IPv8.1. Vega is the same graphics family with Greenland GPU, Raven Ridge APU GPUs. It is brand new architecture. What this means is that we know NOTHING at all.

And yet people are still able to draw conclusions how AMD will be not able to compete with Nvidia offerings. That is amazing, how
 

Bryf50

Golden Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,429
51
91
You're still off. All your doing is comparing 8gbit GDDR5 to 4gbit GDDR5. This has nothing to do with the overall power consumption of GDDR5. It's the same number of chips....
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,142
131
You're still off. All your doing is comparing 8gbit GDDR5 to 4gbit GDDR5. This has nothing to do with the overall power consumption of GDDR5. It's the same number of chips....

Actually you're still off. My last post on this subject before this turns OT.

http://images.anandtech.com/doci/10675/P4Slide.png

Tesla P4. GP104 drawing 36W and only 20W for the rest of the board - including 8GB GDDR5.

So no, 8GB GDDR5 doesn't use 37W.
 

Bryf50

Golden Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,429
51
91
Actually you're still off. My last post on this subject before this turns OT.

http://images.anandtech.com/doci/10675/P4Slide.png

Tesla P4 board. GP104 drawing 36W and only 20W for the rest of the board - including 8GB GDDR5.

So no, 8GB GDDR5 doesn't use 37W.
Weird. I never said anything about the power consumption of GDDR5. But I guess you just need to deflect away from your original poorly thought out argument.
 
Reactions: Grazick

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
1,181
136
When we have pretty solid information that points to Vega being a new architecture I'm not sure why I'm reading posts bashing Polaris 10's power efficiency. Tons of people on reddit have it properly undervolted as it should have been from the start and it matches 1060 in power efficiency for the most part.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,762
4,667
136
Another hint: We have 8GB GDDR5 Tesla P4 parts with GP104 at 50W. So no, the memory chips don't draw anywhere near 37W.
http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/amd-radeon-rx-480-power-measurements,review-33595.html

If the GPU is 110W part, so where the hell in your mind goes the rest 50W of power?

If the memory is supplied with power via the voltage converter block right next to the PCIe connector (which is fairly obvious), then the total power consumption should amount to approximately 37W.
Sapphire Nitro 4 and 8 GB versions of GPUs have to use the same amount of memory chips, because both have to have 256bit memory buses. The difference in power consumption can come from... memory clocks.
Actually you're still off. My last post on this subject before this turns OT.

http://images.anandtech.com/doci/10675/P4Slide.png

Tesla P4. GP104 drawing 36W and only 20W for the rest of the board - including 8GB GDDR5.

So no, 8GB GDDR5 doesn't use 37W.
If you would know anything about the Memory chips, GDDR5X consumes half as much power as GDDR5 does, while having 50% higher bandwidth.

Secondly, GDDR5 in Hawaii chips with 512 bit memory bus consumed around 80W of power while having 6000 MHz clocks If I remember correctly. 384 Bit bus Fire Pro D700 chips consumes around 57W of power in Mac Pro 2013 chips. With this, it is logical that 256 bit memory would consume 37W of power.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |