Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
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Never ceases to amaze me how dedicated you can be to finding the very worst rumors about AMD products and posting them here under the false pretense of "reporting the news".

Weren't you banned from reporting on anything related to AMD after we caught you red-handed deliberately not updating the AMD Ryzen megathread that you made?

The new Vega is the same speed as a Fury X and 980 Ti. Nice try.
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,359
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A Fury Nitro with an overclock can achieve that score.
 

Sweepr

Diamond Member
May 12, 2006
5,148
1,142
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The new Vega is the same speed as a Fury X and 980 Ti. Nice try.

I know. A little bit scary that we have an entry this close to the actual launch not outperforming 1 year old GP104, with rumors of Volta this year. But it could be a lower clocked ES with pre-release drivers, if that makes you feel better.
 
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Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,774
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Doesn't Vega have tons of HPC dedicated transistors and features not present with Polaris? That would account for the less efficient die usage factor. And when you say "doesn't clock as high as Polaris," which iteration of Polaris are you referring? Clearly we see that clocking up Polaris with the GTX 580 had pronounced negative effects on perf/w. But what if Vega is 25% more efficient that RX 480 (which is more efficient than the "tuned up" RX 580)? That'll translate into still being about 25% less efficient than GTX 1080 TI, which means that at the same performance the average power consumption will be ~290 watts. With spikes and peaks, power consumption would be well north of 300 watts and would be spec-breaking.

People on here or rant and complain about other people making a big deal about efficiency fail to see what happens when dies and core clocks are scaled up. Unless AMD wants something hotter and louder than GTX 480 while simultaneously breaking the PCIe spec for a single card, they need to play within the confines of their efficiency limitations.

I too have been maintaining that Vega will be less power efficient than Pascal due to having a combined design for gaming and HPC.

That being said, Titan Xpp is not a 300W TDP design, (even though some sites have found it pulling 300W in a few instances), HBM also uses less power than a 384bit GDDR5X memory bus. Those two facts mean Vega can probably have another 70W or so for the core over Pascal while staying at or below 300W TDP. (I know AMD and NV don't be measure power the same way but I'm going 1st order approximation here)

Pascal having a smallish die, less than max board power, and a nice but reasonable cooling solution leaves performance on the table but makes for a lower cost to manufacture.

Now that could be used to provide a great cost to consumers or some pretty impressive profits to NV. As NV has released three versions of the chip ranging from $700-$1200 I'll leave it up to the reader to decide which way NV went.

Since NV has left power and price on the table, that carves out margin for AMD to compete on performance and performance/$ with a larger hotter, more expensive to manufacture GPU at the cost of less profit. Since profit does not directly effect FPS that's a metric I'm willing to ignore. The GPU just needs to be profitable. We already know from Fiji that a 600mm^2, 275W TBP, HBM, water cooled GPU is profitable at $649.

So I think you are underestimating the margins AMD has to play in to make a marketable performance competitive GPU with HPC capabilities.

(Now I could be wrong. AMD could pull another 2900XT but I think under current management that is highly unlikely)
 
Mar 10, 2006
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I know. A little bit scary that we have an entry this close to the actual launch not outperforming 1 year old GP104, with rumors of Volta this year. But it could be a lower clocked ES with pre-release drivers, if that makes you feel better.

If they are aiming to do a hard launch in June, then the hardware really needs to be finalized now. Of course this could be an old ES and there is certainly time to tweak the drivers.

However if a Vega @ 1200MHz performs at ~1070ish levels, then a 1500MHz Vega (frequency implied by Mi25) would be about at 1080ish levels.
 

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
666
904
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If they are aiming to do a hard launch in June, then the hardware really needs to be finalized now. Of course this could be an old ES and there is certainly time to tweak the drivers.

However if a Vega @ 1200MHz performs at ~1070ish levels, then a 1500MHz Vega (frequency implied by Mi25) would be about at 1080ish levels.

Don't forget the memory isn't where it should be either. Only 700MHz.

Still really bad for full fat Vega, honestly. Let's hope something is seriously off about this.
 

Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
96
Later on in that thread;



This user underclocked their 1080ti to 1380MHz core clock x 3584 x 2 = 9.89 tflops + memory and power limit at stock (+0 and 100%) to match the Vega on show there.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,774
146
If they are aiming to do a hard launch in June, then the hardware really needs to be finalized now. Of course this could be an old ES and there is certainly time to tweak the drivers.

However if a Vega @ 1200MHz performs at ~1070ish levels, then a 1500MHz Vega (frequency implied by Mi25) would be about at 1080ish levels.

That level of performance would be in line with a simple die shrunk 16nm Fiji with a 200mhz bump on core. Really doesn't make sense to me it would take this long for that level of performance.

If these rumors are correct it seems to suggest AMD is either sandbagging or incompetent.

I guess we shall wait and see.
 

CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
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That level of performance would be in line with a simple die shrunk 16nm Fiji with a 200mhz bump on core. Really doesn't make sense to me it would take this long for that level of performance.

If these rumors are correct it seems to suggest AMD is either sandbagging or incompetent.

I guess we shall wait and see.
That's the oddest thing about it for me. If this is really what we're getting, then AMD could have done a similar, but cheaper and quicker job just by shrinkig Fiji. And it probably wouldn't be as big a die as Vega.

There is packed math and HBCC - whatever it does exactly. But I'm not sure they'd make Vega worth it over a theoretical die shrunk Fiji. Especially one given Polaris' improvements.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
733
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That level of performance would be in line with a simple die shrunk 16nm Fiji with a 200mhz bump on core. Really doesn't make sense to me it would take this long for that level of performance.

If these rumors are correct it seems to suggest AMD is either sandbagging or incompetent.

I guess we shall wait and see.

That's the oddest thing about it for me. If this is really what we're getting, then AMD could have done a similar, but cheaper and quicker job just by shrinkig Fiji. And it probably wouldn't be as big a die as Vega.

There is packed math and HBCC - whatever it does exactly. But I'm not sure they'd make Vega worth it over a theoretical die shrunk Fiji. Especially one given Polaris' improvements.

Or maybe it has to do with GlobalFoundries.

Remember that all of AMD's GPU before Polaris were made at TSMC.
 

Dave2150

Senior member
Jan 20, 2015
639
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We already know from Fiji that a 600mm^2, 275W TBP, HBM, water cooled GPU is profitable at $649.

What makes you think Fiji was profitable, at least in the Fury branding? Just because a GPU is released as a product doesn't mean it's profitable.

I suspect the only profit they made on Fiji was in it's professional market incarnations, not the Fury branding. The 980ti rained on their parade and cause them to launch it cheaper than intended, IMO.
 
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Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
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We know it's a vega 10, which makes me wonder if the card has been downclocked to estimate Vega Nano speeds similar to how reviewers were disabling cores and cache on Ryzen 7's to estimate Ryzen 5 speeds?
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,774
146
What makes you think Fiji was profitable, at least in the Fury branding? Just because a GPU is released as a product doesn't mean it's profitable.

I suspect the only profit they made on Fiji was in it's professional market incarnations, not the Fury branding. The 980ti rained on their parade and cause them to launch it cheaper than intended, IMO.

The similarly sized 980TI was also priced at the same level.

While there is a cost difference between 6GB of GDDR5 and 4GB of HBM, the shorter Fury board vs the larger 980TI, and differences in R&D, NV still made plenty of profits on it. Which suggests that boards larger than 500mm^2 make business sense at prices below $700.
 

Dave2150

Senior member
Jan 20, 2015
639
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The similarly sized 980TI was also priced at the same level.

While there is a cost difference between 6GB of GDDR5 and 4GB of HBM, the shorter Fury board vs the larger 980TI, and differences in R&D, NV still made plenty of profits on it. Which suggests that boards larger than 500mm^2 make business sense at prices below $700.

You're forgetting all the R&D invested into HBM. It's also not just the memory modules, it's the TSV's and the interposer. Raja admitted in several interviews that HBM is very expensive. He also referenced the expense of getting the whole supply chain up and running, since graphics card manufacturers had not yet standardized HBM rollout/implementation etc.

It's unwise to assume AMD made much profit on Fury pro or FuryX cards. Regardless, they sold extremely poorly, as backed up by the limited data we have available, (steam hardware survey, whilst only a small %, is all we have).
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,774
146
You're forgetting all the R&D invested into HBM. It's also not just the memory modules, it's the TSV's and the interposer. Raja admitted in several interviews that HBM is very expensive. He also referenced the expense of getting the whole supply chain up and running, since graphics card manufacturers had not yet standardized HBM rollout/implementation etc.

It's unwise to assume AMD made much profit on Fury pro or FuryX cards. Regardless, they sold extremely poorly, as backed up by the limited data we have available, (steam hardware survey, whilst only a small %, is all we have).

Sorry if it came across that I was saying AMD made a bunch of profit. I was simply saying Fury was likely not sold at a loss.

HBM R&D while expensive, will be amortized not only over Fiji but Vega and subsequent GPUs. Also its likely some Zen based APUs as well. The cost was also not entirely born by AMD but Hynix as well.
 

Mr Evil

Senior member
Jul 24, 2015
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This is all reminding me of lead up to the Ryzen launch. AMD, having learnt from previous hype-train derailments, releases insufficient information to extrapolate the performance of the final product. With little to go on but tenuous leaks, the usual suspects try to convince us that it will be a flop, perhaps even a regression in performance. The stage is set for those of us without a vested interest to be pleasantly surprised.
 

Valantar

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2014
1,792
508
136
This is mine GTX1070 oc result
http://www.3dmark.com/spy/888033
GTX1070 oc is around 20% faster(GPU score)
And this is the purported Vega compared to my Fury X @1100 accompanied by a Core2Quad Q9450 @3.52Ghz. If you look at the Graphics score (5721 vs 5467), that's less than direct clock scaling even when ignoring the wildly outdated system of my PC.

Also, this confirms (as if it was necessary) that also HBM speeds are reported at half speeds in 3Dmark. (700MHz*2=) 1400MHz HBM2 might not be final, but its faster (per stack) than HBM.


I'm hesitant to believe this can be anything but a severely crippled ES simply because of how bad it is. Even running alpha-level drivers (which they shouldn't be two-three months out from launch) losing performance per clock from the previous generation is unacceptable. But of course we don't know all the variables here (or any at all, for that matter). Who knows, maybe AMD is leaking these on purpose to shock people when Vega shows up competing with/beating the 1080Ti? Or a million other explanations. I'm hesitant to think Vega might be this bad, plain and simple.
 
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Sven_eng

Member
Nov 1, 2016
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This is all reminding me of lead up to the Ryzen launch. AMD, having learnt from previous hype-train derailments, releases insufficient information to extrapolate the performance of the final product. With little to go on but tenuous leaks, the usual suspects try to convince us that it will be a flop, perhaps even a regression in performance. The stage is set for those of us without a vested interest to be pleasantly surprised.

AMD also showed Ryzen winning vs Intel many times. Where did they show Vega beating Nvidia?
 
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tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
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HBM2. 700MHz (1400MHz effective) and 2048bit bus.

This chip definitely isn't GDDR based from that clockspeed.

I am not going to pretend to know much about Vega, but if Vega comes in two chips then I *HIGHLY* doubt the smaller of the two will have HBM2. The cost associated with HBM2 vs. the need compete with $330-$500 cards would be insurmountable.
 
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