Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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The same graph shows Fiji outperforming the TitanXP, so I wouldn't read that much into it. Chances are that it's Vega 10 in both the Doom test and this new professional card.

good point. I think that is a chart about software anyway, measuring efficiency that isn't exactly GPU-related.
 

ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
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If one is an AMD buyer, this is a big step up from what you can buy today. I don't get why people seem "disappointed" in it.

Believe it or not some AMD customers have high expectations ...

Even devout AMD followers find it hard to view results as a good thing when their preferred brand is months late and only edging their competitors product in the best conditions (which is still not the competitors current flagship) ...

I too somewhat doubt that there is a bigger Vega in play and also in the cards but it's not hard to see their hopes when there's still a lot of potential to be had since the biggest Vega so far will only be around half the die size of Fiji ...
 

Ancalagon44

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2010
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I see there are some rumours that Small Vega (whether it is 10 or 11 doesn't matter to me) will replace Polaris 10. If so, I hope it gets released soon because I'm currently in the market for a Polaris 10. Also, I wonder if they mean exactly replace? Or, introduce at $299 to complement the existing Polaris 10?

Other rumours say that Small Vega will have 8GB of HBM2, and if so, I wonder how much it will sell for? I thought HBM was expensive?
 

flopper

Senior member
Dec 16, 2005
739
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Other rumours say that Small Vega will have 8GB of HBM2, and if so, I wonder how much it will sell for? I thought HBM was expensive?

Performance decide price so, beats the 1080 cost as much or more.
Beats the 1070 then price will be the same or more.
amd wont sell cheap if performance is there.
 

Elfear

Diamond Member
May 30, 2004
7,114
690
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Anyway, I don't know why people are so desperate for there to be a higher performance Vega...this thing seems to go toe-to-toe with the 1080 (even edging it out), which itself is 20-30% faster than the Fury X.

Because we want competition in the GPU market. If there isn't anything to compete with the Titan XP or "1080Ti", we'll be stuck paying ridiculous prices for top-tier performance. I would think everyone would be hoping for Big Vega to compete with Titan XP and not just with the 1080.

It will probably consume less power than the Fury X, so it'll be substantially more efficient.

At the enthusiast level, I doubt most care about efficiency. I would much rather have a 300W Titan XP competitor than a 175W 1080 competitor.

If one is an AMD buyer, this is a big step up from what you can buy today. I don't get why people seem "disappointed" in it.

Why does this have to be about AMD and Nvidia buyers? Doesn't everyone want more competition in the video card arena?
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
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Because we want competition in the GPU market. If there isn't anything to compete with the Titan XP or "1080Ti", we'll be stuck paying ridiculous prices for top-tier performance. I would think everyone would be hoping for Big Vega to compete with Titan XP and not just with the 1080.



At the enthusiast level, I doubt most care about efficiency. I would much rather have a 300W Titan XP competitor than a 175W 1080 competitor.



Why does this have to be about AMD and Nvidia buyers? Doesn't everyone want more competition in the video card arena?
Excellent, excellent post. You speak from a commonality that once ALL video card enthusiasts shared; the desire for increased competition.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
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I see there are some rumours that Small Vega (whether it is 10 or 11 doesn't matter to me) will replace Polaris 10. If so, I hope it gets released soon because I'm currently in the market for a Polaris 10. Also, I wonder if they mean exactly replace? Or, introduce at $299 to complement the existing Polaris 10?

Other rumours say that Small Vega will have 8GB of HBM2, and if so, I wonder how much it will sell for? I thought HBM was expensive?

imo Vega 11 is the smaller chip and is a refresh of Polaris 10 with Vega GFX9 architecture . This architecture is supposed to bring a new Compute unit design and improvements to efficiency and throughput. AMD seems to be calling it NCU (New Compute unit or Next Compute unit). The Vega NCU combined with 20% higher clocks as seen in Vega 10 and probably G5X should bring a significant improvement in performance for Vega 11 over Polaris 10. imo AMD will be targetting the USD 199 - USD 299 price segment for Vega 11 and its variants (partially cut Vega 11 ). If the perf/sp (IPC improvements) are 15-20% this chip could turn out to be very impressive.

Vega 10 is the big flagship chip and the first GPU with Vega GFX 9 IP . Vega 10 will launch in Q1 2017. Vega 11 is most likely to come in late Q2 2017 (towards mid 2017).
 

Headfoot

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2008
4,444
641
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Big and little are, of course, relative. We're probably looking at 7970 and 290 successors respectively, I dont think they're venturing into Fury/GM200 style 600mm2 size dies just yet. They have to save the super die for the mid process node refresh. GP100 being the exception due to the extreme price and total HPC focus, it's almost not even a GPU anymore and more a co-processor. The real question is whether AMD is going to have a 600mm2 die or whether they're showing up to HPC fighting a 600mm2 die with a ~400mm2 die
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Because we want competition in the GPU market. If there isn't anything to compete with the Titan XP or "1080Ti", we'll be stuck paying ridiculous prices for top-tier performance. I would think everyone would be hoping for Big Vega to compete with Titan XP and not just with the 1080.

Just because AMD puts out a competitor to a given NVIDIA product doesn't necessarily mean that prices will fall. They could both choose to keep prices high, just as we saw with Fury X vs 980 Ti, or have we forgotten this already?

At the enthusiast level, I doubt most care about efficiency. I would much rather have a 300W Titan XP competitor than a 175W 1080 competitor.

Problem is, if it takes 300W to get Titan XP performance, there's nothing stopping NVIDIA from getting out a 300W part that performs better than the Titan XP. These devices are pretty much power limited, so the more efficient your architecture, the more performance you can get.





This is the AMD subforum.

Take your NVidia posts to either of the other two forums.

Just not here.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director
 
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crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
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imo Vega 11 is the smaller chip and is a refresh of Polaris 10 with Vega GFX9 architecture . This architecture is supposed to bring a new Compute unit design and improvements to efficiency and throughput. AMD seems to be calling it NCU (New Compute unit or Next Compute unit). The Vega NCU combined with 20% higher clocks as seen in Vega 10 and probably G5X should bring a significant improvement in performance for Vega 11 over Polaris 10. imo AMD will be targetting the USD 199 - USD 299 price segment for Vega 11 and its variants (partially cut Vega 11 ). If the perf/sp (IPC improvements) are 15-20% this chip could turn out to be very impressive.

Vega 10 is the big flagship chip and the first GPU with Vega GFX 9 IP . Vega 10 will launch in Q1 2017. Vega 11 is most likely to come in late Q2 2017 (towards mid 2017).

Interesting, and definitely a possibility. Somewhat un-AMD not to rebadge endlessly though, see Pitcairn the Immortal 2012-2016, and Hawaii 2013-2016. Tonga replacing Tahiti happened, however, so what you envision is very possible. Hopefully this time around it will be less underwhelming (having MORE and not less bandwidth this time around would be a step in the right direction).

Overall disappointing though, as I struggle to imagine a 4096SP Vega competing with Titan XP / 1080 Ti. My optimistic approach is that it can be in-between 1080 and Titan XP if engineered and driven right, but I'm not even expecting that, just hoping as a best case scenario.

Is AMD abandoning the large die size? As we know, Polaris 10 is similar to Tonga wattage. AMD had 2 chips above Tonga is die size / performance / wattage: Hawaii and Fiji. For your theory to be correct, AMD is no longer pursuing a Fiji equivalent. Vega 10 would be the Hawaii of the 14nm generation, Vega 11 would be Tonga, and we will have to wait for Navi for a GP102/100 (GV104?) competitor.
 
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crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
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Big and little are, of course, relative. We're probably looking at 7970 and 290 successors respectively, I dont think they're venturing into Fury/GM200 style 600mm2 size dies just yet. They have to save the super die for the mid process node refresh. GP100 being the exception due to the extreme price and total HPC focus, it's almost not even a GPU anymore and more a co-processor. The real question is whether AMD is going to have a 600mm2 die or whether they're showing up to HPC fighting a 600mm2 die with a ~400mm2 die

I know P10 is the Pitcairn of die size, just about 10% larger, but AMD has run into a wattage problem as it is closer to the larger Tonga in wattage. I do not think a 600mm2 GPU is possible by AMD this time, based on that. Not without significant improvements. This is why I see P10 as more of a Tonga, because I think there is room above it for 2 chips, but not 3 like Pitcairn.
 

happy medium

Lifer
Jun 8, 2003
14,387
480
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Excellent, excellent post. You speak from a commonality that once ALL video card enthusiasts shared; the desire for increased competition.

1.)In your opinion what year(s), (not cards) was there no competition in the high end video card sector?
2.) In the year(s) you have chosen in #1, whats your opinion of why you paid more?

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96Firebird

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 2010
5,712
316
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Big and little are, of course, relative. We're probably looking at 7970 and 290 successors respectively, I dont think they're venturing into Fury/GM200 style 600mm2 size dies just yet. They have to save the super die for the mid process node refresh. GP100 being the exception due to the extreme price and total HPC focus, it's almost not even a GPU anymore and more a co-processor. The real question is whether AMD is going to have a 600mm2 die or whether they're showing up to HPC fighting a 600mm2 die with a ~400mm2 die

Does that mean we are looking at mid-range GPUs?
 

Headfoot

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2008
4,444
641
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Does that mean we are looking at mid-range GPUs?
I'm just speculating, but I think these may be both the high end and mid range (big and little vega) for the Vega/Polaris family, but mid-range relative to the 16nm process node. And if big vega only targets 1080 levels of performance then AMD wont get above mid-range performance versus the market (i.e. nVidia) for the entire generation. I hope that's not the case but it seems like it may come to pass.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
It was nice to see that Vega is up and running at the AMD Horizon event today (near the end of presentation). Hopefully, Vega launches around the same time as RyZen
 

Ancalagon44

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2010
3,274
202
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imo Vega 11 is the smaller chip and is a refresh of Polaris 10 with Vega GFX9 architecture . This architecture is supposed to bring a new Compute unit design and improvements to efficiency and throughput. AMD seems to be calling it NCU (New Compute unit or Next Compute unit). The Vega NCU combined with 20% higher clocks as seen in Vega 10 and probably G5X should bring a significant improvement in performance for Vega 11 over Polaris 10. imo AMD will be targetting the USD 199 - USD 299 price segment for Vega 11 and its variants (partially cut Vega 11 ). If the perf/sp (IPC improvements) are 15-20% this chip could turn out to be very impressive.

Vega 10 is the big flagship chip and the first GPU with Vega GFX 9 IP . Vega 10 will launch in Q1 2017. Vega 11 is most likely to come in late Q2 2017 (towards mid 2017).

I've heard rumours like this, but it would surprise me, because it would mean Polaris 10 would be the shortest lived AMD chip ever made. Only a few months on the market before it is replaced!

Besides which, the Polaris 10 currently competes very well with the Nvidia 1060, and in fact, with recent driver updates, is now solidly ahead of it. Makes no sense to replace it now when it is making AMD money.

Personally I think Big Vega will slot in between 1080 and Titan, and Small Vega will be around 1070 level.
 

flopper

Senior member
Dec 16, 2005
739
19
76
I've heard rumours like this, but it would surprise me, because it would mean Polaris 10 would be the shortest lived AMD chip ever made. Only a few months on the market before it is replaced!

Besides which, the Polaris 10 currently competes very well with the Nvidia 1060, and in fact, with recent driver updates, is now solidly ahead of it. Makes no sense to replace it now when it is making AMD money.

Personally I think Big Vega will slot in between 1080 and Titan, and Small Vega will be around 1070 level.

You replace if the new is better way better and cheaper in the long run for the same pricepoint. so while I dont think that may happen in this case its a possibility.
still the Vega demoed does 4k as well or better than the 1080.
and they be having a card along the way that address the 1070 market also.
no reason to demo that card btw...
 

Ancalagon44

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2010
3,274
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You replace if the new is better way better and cheaper in the long run for the same pricepoint. so while I dont think that may happen in this case its a possibility.
still the Vega demoed does 4k as well or better than the 1080.
and they be having a card along the way that address the 1070 market also.
no reason to demo that card btw...

You also have to consider return on investment though.

They will only replace in one of two scenarios:
1. Polaris 10 is not competitive in the market place and needs to be replaced.
2. Polaris 10 has made a decent return on investment and the timing is right to introduce a replacement.

I think it is competitive in the marketplace, but I'd be surprised if it was already made a decent return on investment. So, that is why I don't think it will happen.
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
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Polaris derivatives are also used by Apple and both big consoles. I'd venture to say AMD has at least reached a minimum of profitable ROI already from Polaris.
 

Ancalagon44

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2010
3,274
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Polaris derivatives are also used by Apple and both big consoles. I'd venture to say AMD has at least reached a minimum of profitable ROI already from Polaris.

The PS4 and Xbox One don't use any Polaris technology - only the PS4 Pro uses something like Polaris 10. And bear in mind, while much of the IP is shared with Polaris, Polaris 10 will still require a lot of work that only benefits Polaris 10. Ie, the taping out of the design, the marketing, the shipping, etc etc.
 

Dave2150

Senior member
Jan 20, 2015
639
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It was nice to see that Vega is up and running at the AMD Horizon event today (near the end of presentation). Hopefully, Vega launches around the same time as RyZen

Indeed, I do hope a release date is leaked soon. I'm hoping it's Q1 2017, though I guess it could still be June if they are waiting for yields to improve?
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
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Indeed, I do hope a release date is leaked soon. I'm hoping it's Q1 2017, though I guess it could still be June if they are waiting for yields to improve?
My guess is May. Last year we got the first public demo of Polaris later in January and it released in June. This year we got a demo earlier in December so if thats any indication it seems like we are looking at a May release.
 
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