Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
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Margins on a $300 1080 would be very close to zero.

At this point when they've already much more than payed for their R&D costs on pascal? They can sell it very cheap if they really have/want to.

Totally different if they ever ended up having to launch at cut prices of course, but no risk of that for the forseeable.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,131
30,082
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Margins on a $300 1080 would be very close to zero.

So? They certainly wouldn't be losing any money on now year-old cards like the 1080 by doing so, they would virtually eliminate AMD in the GPU space for now if not forever, and thus open up the potential for 70, 90, 200% margins for all of their cards in the future. I mean, why not?
 

Yakk

Golden Member
May 28, 2016
1,574
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Generally dumping product at cost or loss to eliminate competition is frowned upon, and illegal in many countries.

China is quite sad by this.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
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Margins on a $300 1080 would be very close to zero.

Source?

Also think about the next xx70 series from Volta.

That will sell for ~$300-350 while being faster than a 1080 right now, so why do you think they can't sell a 1080 for those margins considering Volta has whole new R&D budget to fund first.

Lets say Vega is close to 1080 Ti for a way low price like $500. What do you think NVidia will do? Drop prices? Discontinue their whole line and push for Volta?

Why do you think Volta will be cheaper to manufacture than Pascal? Or do you not think the Volta $300-350 part will be faster than a 1080?

Now I don't think we'd see Vega that cheap, but who knows and there is a reason AMD doesn't want to announce pricing and perf before release.
 
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Vesku

Diamond Member
Aug 25, 2005
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I can only assume AMD is going for another silicon spin for gaming Vega. 1080Ti set a high bar for AMD to demand a $600-650 MSRP.
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
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You
Margins on a $300 1080 would be very close to zero.
Any evidence?

Because nvidia released the very similar die size 560 Ti (334mm2) at $249 at on the then brand new 40nm process in 2011 and STILL had great margins that year. So you're saying an entire year later nvidia wouldn't make any money on a $300 330mm2. Sorry but you and I both know you're dead wrong.

Same memory interface width..

Just like many have pointed out there is a GOOD REASON nvidia has taken record profits from consumers.. They have jacked up prices of all their chips up an entire segment.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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Any evidence?

Because nvidia released the very similar die size 560 Ti (334mm2) at $249 at on the then brand new 40nm process in 2011 and STILL had great margins that year. So you're saying an entire year later nvidia wouldn't make any money on a $300 330mm2. Sorry but you and I both know you're dead wrong.

Same memory interface width..

Just like many have pointed out there is a GOOD REASON nvidia has taken record profits from consumers.. They have jacked up prices of all their chips up an entire segment.

If at $549 NVIDIA enjoys a gross profit margin of 60% (probably on the high side honestly...), then that implies a COGS of $220.

Margins on a $300 product with that same exact cost structure would be $80/$300 = ~27%, which would be awful.

Now, I know this might seem decent (it's not...), but also remember that the cost of the entire finished AIB (PCB, VRAM, cooling shroud, box, etc.) is going to be relatively fixed -- the only part that would come down in price in this case would presumably be the GPU. So, NVIDIA's margins on the silicon die itself would probably be much lower than the 27% that I just mentioned.
 

SPBHM

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2012
5,059
413
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Margins on a $300 1080 would be very close to zero.

why? would that be related to GDDR5X? I would think they could make a version of the 1080 with GDDR5 8GHz, I doubt the performance hit is going to be massive, and power usage goes down a little I think, and they could use more basic cards/cooling with that GPU... it would not be unreasonable as a $300 card I don't think...

but that's going on the 1070 direction, better to drop the 1070 to $299 and the effect is the same basically I think...
the 970 was a big seller around $300.
 

CatMerc

Golden Member
Jul 16, 2016
1,114
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If at $549 NVIDIA enjoys a gross profit margin of 60% (probably on the high side honestly...), then that implies a COGS of $220.

Margins on a $300 product with that same exact cost structure would be $80/$300 = ~27%, which would be awful.

Now, I know this might seem decent (it's not...), but also remember that the cost of the entire finished AIB (PCB, VRAM, cooling shroud, box, etc.) is going to be relatively fixed -- the only part that would come down in price in this case would presumably be the GPU. So, NVIDIA's margins on the silicon die itself would probably be much lower than the 27% that I just mentioned.
60% margin for the entire company, which sells cards that have next to nothing margin wise at the bottom, and they do so by the millions.

1080's gross margin is far higher. It's a 314mm^2 die on a PCB that's no better than 480/580.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
The whole point of the demo was to show off Threadripper and its I/O capabilites, not Vega. As such you would want to add enough GPUs to the point where there is no GPU bottleneck, and then show that Threadripper is still capable of keeping up. It's still a crappy demo mind you, as it should instead have been done as a comparison with a slower CPU, like they did with the DOTA2 streaming demo, which didn't feature FPS numbers either, but still did a perfect job of getting the message across.

Either way though this is all irrelevant. I just found this 60FPS recording of the demo, and it quite clearly shows that the refresh rate was 30 Hz, not 60 Hz, so all of the number I mentioned above should be cut in half.

So unless crossfire scaling was terrible, a single Vega FE is basically the same speed as Fury X (possible 20-30% faster if they were running the 1.2 version of Prey). I can only assume that these drivers must be extremely premature, otherwise it just doesn't make any sense*.

*another possibility is of course that the frame with 2.7 tears, was very unrepresentative of the performance.

Not sure if it was the image used for the calculation but it was the only image I saw here, and when I first saw it it was definitely not impressive with the math some people churned out:



Basically a door, some shadows and one enemy.

Watching that video you linked, I don't know how anyone could walk away with it with any confidence. I'll just assume the drivers aren't ready - but if that were the case, AMD should have not shown that live footage.

AMD gonna do what AMD gonna do. I'm still giving AMD the benefit of the doubt, especially after Ryzen.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
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Not sure if it was the image used for the calculation but it was the only image I saw here, and when I first saw it it was definitely not impressive with the math some people churned out:



Basically a door, some shadows and one enemy.

Watching that video you linked, I don't know how anyone could walk away with it with any confidence. I'll just assume the drivers aren't ready - but if that were the case, AMD should have not shown that live footage.

AMD gonna do what AMD gonna do. I'm still giving AMD the benefit of the doubt, especially after Ryzen.

Care to show that scene on a 1080 / 1080 Ti @ 4k?
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
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Send me a Steam key and I'd gladly reproduce it for you

Haha I don't own it either. I tried looking online for youtube videos of it but haven't seen any and without playing the game I don't even know what to really look for. I'm assuming its near the end of the game since it's a big fight scene.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
Haha I don't own it either. I tried looking online for youtube videos of it but haven't seen any and without playing the game I don't even know what to really look for. I'm assuming its near the end of the game since it's a big fight scene.

I'm taking a bargain bin approach due to some bad PR the dev studio said (my own form of making a stance). Only thing I know regarding the footage and not sure if it was accurate or just a troll, the post basically said something like "LOL first level" - pretty sure I read it at NeoGaf, but again with no actual knowledge on the game dunno where the scene happened.

EDIT:

Found that post. Twas Neogaf. But now reading it in more context, troll post regarding 7-stages of grief, ie Denial.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=238670400&postcount=407

Funny thing, is re-reading through that thread from the start. The excitement, expectations, and then the commentary while the stream was going on.

Woof, tough crowd for AMD.
 
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beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,231
1,604
136
If at $549 NVIDIA enjoys a gross profit margin of 60% (probably on the high side honestly...), then that implies a COGS of $220.

Margins on a $300 product with that same exact cost structure would be $80/$300 = ~27%, which would be awful.

Now, I know this might seem decent (it's not...), but also remember that the cost of the entire finished AIB (PCB, VRAM, cooling shroud, box, etc.) is going to be relatively fixed -- the only part that would come down in price in this case would presumably be the GPU. So, NVIDIA's margins on the silicon die itself would probably be much lower than the 27% that I just mentioned.

You can't use full card price for margin calculation and then later say that due to board price margin is actually lower. It's a contradiction. $549 is the card price for FE. Asus and co for sure also get a piece of the pie so NV sells FE for less than $549 to Asus. We also don't know what NV actually charges for the the chip itself and most cards sold aren't FE but AIB custom where NV pays $0 for the board. For all we know the margin on the full card is much smaller for say Asus than what NV get from selling the chip. NV maybe charges $400 for a full GP104. The rest of the money goes into the AIBs pocket (well part of it. Most into board cost, development and marketing).
 

antihelten

Golden Member
Feb 2, 2012
1,764
274
126
Not sure if it was the image used for the calculation but it was the only image I saw here, and when I first saw it it was definitely not impressive with the math some people churned out:



Basically a door, some shadows and one enemy.

Watching that video you linked, I don't know how anyone could walk away with it with any confidence. I'll just assume the drivers aren't ready - but if that were the case, AMD should have not shown that live footage.

AMD gonna do what AMD gonna do. I'm still giving AMD the benefit of the doubt, especially after Ryzen.

I'm not really sure how the content of the scene in this frame (a door, some shadows and one enemy) would have any influence on the quality of the math (which is based on calculating the height of the screen tears)?

Obviously one could argue that the frame in question isn't the most representative of overall performance, but that doesn't really have anything to do with the math itself (only the conclusions drawn from said math).

Also I agree that the demo doesn't exactly inspire confidence in Vega, but then again it wasn't really supposed to (the demo was about showing off TR's I/O capabilities, not Vega)
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
I'm not really sure how the content of the scene in this frame (a door, some shadows and one enemy) would have any influence on the quality of the math (which is based on calculating the height of the screen tears)?

Obviously one could argue that the frame in question isn't the most representative of overall performance, but that doesn't really have anything to do with the math itself (only the conclusions drawn from said math).

If it was the scene used for the math, it isn't a very demanding scene.

Also I agree that the demo doesn't exactly inspire confidence in Vega, but then again it wasn't really supposed to (the demo was about showing off TR's I/O capabilities, not Vega)

Would have been more of a showcase for Threadripper if they showed 2xVega while content creation or streaming was going on in the background. Or, at least something that would tax more than 32 lanes and 8 cores. It showed nothing of Threadripper's capabilities, and only showed a poor demonstration of CFX Vega.
 

nurturedhate

Golden Member
Aug 27, 2011
1,767
773
136
The scene is about halfway through the game and it's completely obvious from Su the demo is about the threadripper platform and not an "OMG look at Vega" demo.

Also the game is fantastic.
 

Malogeek

Golden Member
Mar 5, 2017
1,390
778
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yaktribe.org
The scene is about halfway through the game and it's completely obvious from Su the demo is about the threadripper platform and not an "OMG look at Vega" demo.
That won't stop people from trying to extrapolate performance metrics from the demo, form opinions on apparent high/low performance and initiate countless click-bait articles on Vega.
 

antihelten

Golden Member
Feb 2, 2012
1,764
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If it was the scene used for the math, it isn't a very demanding scene.

Would have been more of a showcase for Threadripper if they showed 2xVega while content creation or streaming was going on in the background. Or, at least something that would tax more than 32 lanes and 8 cores. It showed nothing of Threadripper's capabilities, and only showed a poor demonstration of CFX Vega.

Agreed on both counts.
 

nurturedhate

Golden Member
Aug 27, 2011
1,767
773
136
That won't stop people from trying to extrapolate performance metrics from the demo, form opinions on apparent high/low performance and initiate countless click-bait articles on Vega.

Agreed and just like you said it's just click bait and thread crapping for the most part. It's taking something out of context and applying preconceived notions about it.
 

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
136
The scene is about halfway through the game and it's completely obvious from Su the demo is about the threadripper platform and not an "OMG look at Vega" demo.

Also the game is fantastic.
It's a pc game designed around 4 core 8 thread machines and at 4k very high is completely gpu bound anyway. How is that ever going to demo threadripper in any meaningful way?
 
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