Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
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642
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The recent crypto boom has me worried about this release now too. I've been getting calls everyday at our shop with miners looking to gobble up every RX 480 and 470 they can get their hands on. It appears that there is an actual shortage and the retail prices are going to be 30-40% higher than MSRP for a while. If the capacity they have to make GPU's can't satisfy a small surge in sales, it leaves me really worried that if Vega is a good miner that these things are going to be a repeat of Hawaii all over again and a lot of gamers will end up buying 1080ti's that are easier to get a hold of.
Does your store do preorders? Anyone calling to try to preorder Vega? Obviously it's too early to do so but still curious to see what the early demand is
 

Valantar

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2014
1,792
508
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The recent crypto boom has me worried about this release now too. I've been getting calls everyday at our shop with miners looking to gobble up every RX 480 and 470 they can get their hands on. It appears that there is an actual shortage and the retail prices are going to be 30-40% higher than MSRP for a while. If the capacity they have to make GPU's can't satisfy a small surge in sales, it leaves me really worried that if Vega is a good miner that these things are going to be a repeat of Hawaii all over again and a lot of gamers will end up buying 1080ti's that are easier to get a hold of.
A shortage due to miners isn't alone enough to conclude that they don't have the capacity to meet demand - there are far more factors than immediate demand that apply. How long will demand last? For a mining surge, not long. So it's better to underproduce than overproduce and be left with loads of unsellable stock. Not to mention delivery times: to most of the world, shipping times from east Asian assembly plants are in the vicinity of three weeks. That's a long lead time for increasing production. For all they know, the boom might be over before the cards actually hit store shelves. And so on, and so on. This isn't a "Oh, we'll just turn it up to 11 then" situation.
 

Snarf Snarf

Senior member
Feb 19, 2015
399
327
136
Does your store do preorders? Anyone calling to try to preorder Vega? Obviously it's too early to do so but still curious to see what the early demand is

Given that no one really knows what to expect, most people are in the wait and see camp from what I have gathered. Most of the people willing to wait for Vega are looking for that or a 1080ti and are usually pretty well informed consumers and follow the GPU news pretty regularly. The amount of people who just grabbed a 1080 or a 1070 and will ride it out to Volta is actually pretty high (in regards to my customers) and a lot of them won't even consider Radeon a viable alternative.

A shortage due to miners isn't alone enough to conclude that they don't have the capacity to meet demand - there are far more factors than immediate demand that apply. How long will demand last? For a mining surge, not long. So it's better to underproduce than overproduce and be left with loads of unsellable stock. Not to mention delivery times: to most of the world, shipping times from east Asian assembly plants are in the vicinity of three weeks. That's a long lead time for increasing production. For all they know, the boom might be over before the cards actually hit store shelves. And so on, and so on. This isn't a "Oh, we'll just turn it up to 11 then" situation.

The real concern comes from the unknown right now, will Vega 10 be a mining power house? If it is, I fully expect a repeat of the Hawaii launch where AMD won't be able to keep up with the demand for the cards and we'll see price gouging all over the retail landscape. However, I am hoping that the changes being made to Vega (big clock speed jump, HBCC, and Tiled Rasterizer) will have little effect on hash rate of these cards leaving the RX 400-500 series cards as the de facto MH/$ kings. I say I'm worried about capacity because the RX 500 series isn't exactly a massive change over the 400 series and thus shouldn't have yield issues. Either AMD has preemptively shifted manufacturing capacity to Vega line to build up stock for the impending launch, or GF's foundries are being tied up by other things (Threadripper, Epyc, Vega FE)
 

Valantar

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2014
1,792
508
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The real concern comes from the unknown right now, will Vega 10 be a mining power house? If it is, I fully expect a repeat of the Hawaii launch where AMD won't be able to keep up with the demand for the cards and we'll see price gouging all over the retail landscape. However, I am hoping that the changes being made to Vega (big clock speed jump, HBCC, and Tiled Rasterizer) will have little effect on hash rate of these cards leaving the RX 400-500 series cards as the de facto MH/$ kings. I say I'm worried about capacity because the RX 500 series isn't exactly a massive change over the 400 series and thus shouldn't have yield issues. Either AMD has preemptively shifted manufacturing capacity to Vega line to build up stock for the impending launch, or GF's foundries are being tied up by other things (Threadripper, Epyc, Vega FE)
I have a feeling that you might be right - AMD's mining strength comes from Radeons having a kind of "brute force" approach to performance, while Nvidia has a lot of tricks and tweaks giving them better perf/flop.

As for production capacity, I'd say Ryzen is taking up quite a bit of capacity, as well as the new Macs of various kinds. Also, AMD has seen quite a few inventory write-offs in recent years, so I'm betting they're willing to forego some mining sales to avoid another one of those. If they ramp up production today, the first cards will hit retail in mid July, and the mining bubble might burst at pretty much any time. I doubt they want to be stuck with two-three weeks of maxed out production capacity stock sitting unsellable in warehouses just as Vega launches. Not to mention ramping up Polaris production now would pretty much have to come out of Vega production. Don't think they want that either.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
it leaves me really worried that if Vega is a good miner that these things are going to be a repeat of Hawaii all over again and a lot of gamers will end up buying 1080ti's that are easier to get a hold of.

And potentially cheaper. That's how I got on the NV boat. GTX 780 was going for less than R9 290X when I was buying.
 

nurturedhate

Golden Member
Aug 27, 2011
1,762
759
136
And potentially cheaper. That's how I got on the NV boat. GTX 780 was going for less than R9 290X when I was buying.
That's the same reason I ended up with a 780ti instead of a 290x. Simply wasn't willing to pay $700+ for a 290x compared to around $530ish I think I paid for the 780ti on sale. Massively hoping vega delivers and is available. This 1070 just isn't enough for 1440p/144hz.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,839
5,456
136
Faster than 1080 Ti FE seems tough with no core count increase... even in Doom Vulkan the difference is close to 70%. Aftermarket @ 300 W is another 10-15% on top of that.

I guess they could go cheap like they did with Ryzen, I doubt they want to though.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
Wasn't the 290 not 290x the 780 competitor? Had a MSRP of only $400 vs $550/500 on 290x/780.

None of that mattered when stores (even online retailers) were gouging through the roof for AMD cards.

That's the same reason I ended up with a 780ti instead of a 290x. Simply wasn't willing to pay $700+ for a 290x compared to around $530ish I think I paid for the 780ti on sale. Massively hoping vega delivers and is available. This 1070 just isn't enough for 1440p/144hz.

The kicker was I even waited for custom cards. Then the price gouging basically drove me out of the red camp. Took a few months for the market to stabilize, so I'm glad I didn't wait.
 

Face2Face

Diamond Member
Jun 6, 2001
4,100
215
106
Wasn't the 290 not 290x the 780 competitor? Had a MSRP of only $400 vs $550/500 on 290x/780.

Correct. I remember when I was in the market for another video card after my HD 7950, and the 290 and 290X custom cards were nowhere to be found. Only the terrible reference cards were available. Not only that, BTC mining was in full effect, and so was price gouging. That being said, an aftermarket 780 was very enticing, especially when a lot of them could hit 1150-1200Mhz on the core bringing them ever so close to the stock 780 Ti. We all know how Kepler aged, but back then, they performed very well, and even better when overclocked. There was only a couple 290X's on this forum that could keep up with my 780 @ 1400MHz+

Back in the days when Balla and Silverforce were very active, just to name a few. Ahh, those were the days.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
91
None of that mattered when stores (even online retailers) were gouging through the roof for AMD cards.

My point was you said you bought a cheaper 780 than a 290x... but even MSRP (ignoring miner's buying them all) the 290x is $550 vs $500 on the 780. It was the 290 that was MSRP of $400 and the same speed as the 780.
 

Elfear

Diamond Member
May 30, 2004
7,115
690
126
Correct. I remember when I was in the market for another video card after my HD 7950, and the 290 and 290X custom cards were nowhere to be found. Only the terrible reference cards were available. Not only that, BTC mining was in full effect, and so was price gouging. That being said, an aftermarket 780 was very enticing, especially when a lot of them could hit 1150-1200Mhz on the core bringing them ever so close to the stock 780 Ti. We all know how Kepler aged, but back then, they performed very well, and even better when overclocked. There was only a couple 290X's on this forum that could keep up with my 780 @ 1400MHz+

Back in the days when Balla and Silverforce were very active, just to name a few. Ahh, those were the days.

Indeed. I remember some epic debates about the 290 vs 780.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Back in the days when Balla and Silverforce were very active, just to name a few. Ahh, those were the days.

Good memory. It's funny how things change over time. There were so many people actively posting a few years ago that I don't, or, rarely see now-a-days.
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
121
Given that no one really knows what to expect, most people are in the wait and see camp from what I have gathered. Most of the people willing to wait for Vega are looking for that or a 1080ti and are usually pretty well informed consumers and follow the GPU news pretty regularly. The amount of people who just grabbed a 1080 or a 1070 and will ride it out to Volta is actually pretty high (in regards to my customers) and a lot of them won't even consider Radeon a viable alternative.



The real concern comes from the unknown right now, will Vega 10 be a mining power house? If it is, I fully expect a repeat of the Hawaii launch where AMD won't be able to keep up with the demand for the cards and we'll see price gouging all over the retail landscape. However, I am hoping that the changes being made to Vega (big clock speed jump, HBCC, and Tiled Rasterizer) will have little effect on hash rate of these cards leaving the RX 400-500 series cards as the de facto MH/$ kings. I say I'm worried about capacity because the RX 500 series isn't exactly a massive change over the 400 series and thus shouldn't have yield issues. Either AMD has preemptively shifted manufacturing capacity to Vega line to build up stock for the impending launch, or GF's foundries are being tied up by other things (Threadripper, Epyc, Vega FE)
Ya I guess I'm in the camp of its painfully obvious what Vega 10 performance is going to be about and whether you want one or not. If you waited this long to see Vega 10 performance only to buy a gtx 1080ti you're a hilarious human being who should have never played this waiting game.

I committed to Vega 10 when I went freesync. The only way I'd give up on Vega is if it's not going to be possible for me to get it. Then I'll just give up on gaming again until Volta. I waited 1.25 years for Vega to release. Another half year won't hurt me if I can't pick up Vega by September.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
My point was you said you bought a cheaper 780 than a 290x... but even MSRP (ignoring miner's buying them all) the 290x is $550 vs $500 on the 780. It was the 290 that was MSRP of $400 and the same speed as the 780.

Oh, that was a typo on my behalf, since I meant 290, not the 290X. My 780 Lightning cost less than the MSI 290 TwinFZR (or however it was written) back then.

The gouging was real back then!
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
91
Oh, that was a typo on my behalf, since I meant 290, not the 290X. My 780 Lightning cost less than the MSI 290 TwinFZR (or however it was written) back then.

The gouging was real back then!

Oh ya, was over $100 extra for 290s often. Sadly AMD didn't cash in just the retailers
 
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tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,355
642
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Indeed. I remember some epic debates about the 290 vs 780.
Because then we actually had choices.
Now, we're getting screwed into an "ecosystem". That's why I'm getting Vega, because Vega even $100 more expensive than a GTX 1080Ti is "cheaper" as a package deal. I wish it was completely unlocked and Nvidia and AMD competed. IMO, this is only going to hurt Nvidia long run as people slowly figure out that Async is more important than FPS. I'd rather have 50FPS and async than 65 FPS average and no async. That's why I'm getting Vega. Not because it's the faster chip. But the cheaper ecosystem.

The new debate now to me is the ecosystem debate, which is why I tell people AMD is for those who don't want to spend a lot, and Nvidia is for those who aren't as price conscious. That's really all the debate boils down to for the MAJORITY of people once you factor in purchasing an Async monitor.

That's why I think it's funny people are cross shopping a GTX 1080Ti and Vega, as if they didn't know their Gsync tax threshold yet.
 
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tg2708

Senior member
May 23, 2013
687
20
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gsync or free sync helps but as a person that has a 1080 ti with a gsync monitor the 50 fps is noticeable albeit not as bad as without it. But then again if its not 75 or over fps wise the game does not feel all that smooth. In a racing game it slightly less noticeable though. I went nvidia for the sole reason of not wanting to wait this long, as a brand agnostic person I needed the performance now, the 290, 480 (after giving the former to my cousin), 980 ti (newer games suffer), 1070 and 1080 was not cutting it. Also alot of the games I play tend to favor nvidia more. 60 fps is good but as you get to the 75-80 mark with most settings at max then the game offers up a whole new experience with the added fluidity. While I agree the ti is more expensive than it should due to lack of competition its still a mighty fine card and as of now the only card at this price range that I felt like I got my moneys worth from. Amd might indeed have a faster card but as it stands I'm in the nvidia camp because amd took too long to offer the performance I needed and Im not letting my gsync monitor (amazing monitor) go to waste......but in a year or two I might reconsider depending on how things turn out.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
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Now, we're getting screwed into an "ecosystem". That's why I'm getting Vega, because Vega even $100 more expensive than a GTX 1080Ti is "cheaper" as a package deal. I wish it was completely unlocked and Nvidia and AMD competed.

Yeah I really can't believe that Nvidia doesn't get enough "hate" from reviewers for not supporting Adaptive Sync. It's a bloody free standard! Every GPU they release that doesn't support an display standard should be blasted as a negative. Why should you have to pay them an extra $100-300 for the same features.
 

ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
1,120
260
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Yeah I really can't believe that Nvidia doesn't get enough "hate" from reviewers for not supporting Adaptive Sync. It's a bloody free standard! Every GPU they release that doesn't support an display standard should be blasted as a negative. Why should you have to pay them an extra $100-300 for the same features.

That 'free standard' (I wouldn't call it that when it's dictated by the likes of HDMI Forum and VESA but I guess other video hardware (like AMD or Intel) and display manufacturers get more say in it than just Nvidia) was only just recently ratified with HDMI 2.1 ...

The first maybe 'open' (bad word here) implementation of the adaptive sync is arguably an AMD extension rather than an industry standard. You can criticize Nvidia's pricing strategy all you want but don't just blindly hark on them for not supporting another one of their competitor's proprietary standards when things like Free Sync and HSA when they are not sanctioned by industry wide forums ...

You maybe have a point if Nvidia tomorrow declared no intentions to support HDMI 2.1 in their future products but until then let's just wait and see ...
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
1,475
136
Zen and Vega represent AMD's attempt to re-enter high performance CPU and GPU. imo AMD's last reasonably successful high end GPU was R9 290 / R9 290X . Fiji was an unimpressive GPU against the competition 980 Ti especially the after market 980 Ti cards which were 20% faster than Fiji. It was also affected by cost/yield/volume issues which made it an outright disaster.

https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/ASUS/GTX_980_Ti_Matrix/23.html
http://www.hardwarecanucks.com/foru...69855-msi-gtx-980-ti-gaming-6g-review-18.html

If Vega fails against 1080 Ti / Titan XP then some heads at AMD RTG will roll. If Vega can beat them and remain competitive against Volta with a refresh next year on 14nm+ then AMD truly will be back in the GPU market as they are in the CPU market.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
3,430
1,018
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The first maybe 'open' (bad word here) implementation of the adaptive sync is arguably an AMD extension rather than an industry standard.

What are you talking about?

Adaptive-Sync is a proven and widely adopted technology. The technology has been a standard component of VESA’s embedded DisplayPort (eDP™) specification since its initial rollout in 2009. As a result, Adaptive-Sync technology is already incorporated into many of the building block components for displays that rely on eDP for internal video signaling. Newly introduced to the DisplayPort 1.2a specification for external displays, this technology is now formally known as DisplayPort Adaptive-Sync.

https://www.vesa.org/news/vesa-adds-adaptive-sync-to-popular-displayport-video-standard/

Nvidia had no issues supporting it in their laptops and calling it GSync there. I'm not talking about Freesync which covers Displayport as well as HDMI and other features like LFC.

I'm talking about the displayport standard that Nvidia has ignored for years so they can force you to buy a more expensive monitor where they get a solid $100 or more profit off and lock you into their hardware.

Almost every monitor you can buy now will have adaptive sync.

That's why so many people are holding out for Vega since it will support their monitor.
 

ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
1,120
260
136
What are you talking about?



https://www.vesa.org/news/vesa-adds-adaptive-sync-to-popular-displayport-video-standard/

Nvidia had no issues supporting it in their laptops and calling it GSync there. I'm not talking about Freesync which covers Displayport as well as HDMI and other features like LFC.

I'm talking about the displayport standard that Nvidia has ignored for years so they can force you to buy a more expensive monitor where they get a solid $100 or more profit off and lock you into their hardware.

Almost every monitor you can buy now will have adaptive sync.

That's why so many people are holding out for Vega since it will support their monitor.

Well adaptive refresh rates are not an absolute requirement in the DisplayPort 1.3 specs ...

What good is that if the standards aren't mandatory but only voluntary ? (I don't even think DP 1.4 makes adaptive sync a requirement either!)

If we want Nvidia to listen to us we have to make it clear with the rest of the manufacturers who will get through to them ...

If we really want a true baseline then we'll do it with HDMI 2.1 since variable refresh rates are guaranteed in the spec. (Maybe better luck next time when VESA makes adaptive sync a requirement for DP 1.5 ?)
 
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