Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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swilli89

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Mar 23, 2010
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The underlying problem here wasn't the mining sales, but the fact that Polaris didn't bring any raw performance improvements to the table. It offered some new features (e.g. HEVC decoding and HDMI 2.0 output), and better perf/watt than 28nm, but didn't really game any better than Hawaii. AMD kept making 28nm Fiji for a while despite its shortcomings, because it still outperformed Polaris and was the only thing they had that could even attempt to compete with the GTX 1070.

If AMD had a "big" Polaris card,, then there would have been more sales because there would have been a meaningful upgrade path. The lack of R&D funding has hurt the GPU division greatly.
Had this discussion with some posters on a different forum. Woulda been nice if AMD had been able to have a scaled up ~450mm2 Polaris coming in at 4608sp. Understandably its not just a matter of doubling everything.. even identical chips require respins on different processes. However a chip of this size would have worked well against the 1080. It just seems that AMD simply didn't have the manpower available to draft a larger chip based on Polaris.
 

Veradun

Senior member
Jul 29, 2016
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Had this discussion with some posters on a different forum. Woulda been nice if AMD had been able to have a scaled up ~450mm2 Polaris coming in at 4608sp. Understandably its not just a matter of doubling everything.. even identical chips require respins on different processes. However a chip of this size would have worked well against the 1080. It just seems that AMD simply didn't have the manpower available to draft a larger chip based on Polaris.
At 400W.

No, they needed a new architecture. Hopefully that is Vega.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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At 400W.

No, they needed a new architecture. Hopefully that is Vega.

Yup. GCN had hit a wall and needed some serious work.

I wouldn't be surprised if a Vega Nano-like card with more SPs and a higher clock has a lower TDP than the 580.

The curious chip will be Navi though. The speculation from over a year ago was that it would use the same approach has Threadripper and Epyc are using on the CPU side. Attach the smaller die with something (Infinity Fabric) to produce monster size die without having to fab it as one monolithic unit.

What I want to know is if Navi will have additional improvements over Vega from an architectural perspective. Vega already seems to have to have played a large amount of feature catch-up, but there may have been a few things that couldn't make the cut.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
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If AMD can get Infinity Fabric to work with Vega / Navi / whatever next it will be a complete game changer. If they can get basically 100% scaling all the time without needing any developer or driver support per game... GG. They can just make mid sized parts and dual boards for high end and keep their R&D and production costs low while offering great performance across the board, and if you want to upgrade just buy another GPU and stick it in.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Hardly... now the mining hysteria is contagious and it affected nVIDIA too. And seems that nVIDIA will get affected eventually.

Wondering if Intel will take part of that....
Is that what's going on. I was looking at NV GFX cards and noticed the 1070s had gone up in price
 
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Accord99

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2001
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Is tha what's going on. I was looking at NV GFX cards and noticed the 1070s had gone up in price
The 1070 is at least in stock and compares favorably in terms of outright hash rate and especially performance/watt in Ethereum vs Polaris.
 

dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
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The 1070 is at least in stock and compares favorably in terms of outright hash rate and especially performance/watt in Ethereum vs Polaris.
The problem?
The competitor of Polaris is 1060... so is Awesome but Impactical on their fullest impact.

The 1070 is superior due the superior uARCH compared to Polaris....

And is hardly on stock too. Seems that both companies understimated the minners.
 

EXCellR8

Diamond Member
Sep 1, 2010
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any word on the dimensions of that Frontier card? Koduri had mentioned that some of the RX Vega cards will be snappier than FE for gaming... hopefully that doesn't translate into longer cards because I got a limited space issue.
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
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At 400W.

No, they needed a new architecture. Hopefully that is Vega.
Had they simply taken Fiji performance and added what they could with the 14nm power savings (30-40%) they would have at least matched 1080. Neither here nor there now, even though this chip was feasible they simply didn't have the manpower to get it done.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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136
Had they simply taken Fiji performance and added what they could with the 14nm power savings (30-40%) they would have at least matched 1080. Neither here nor there now, even though this chip was feasible they simply didn't have the manpower to get it done.

Well, they needed to move the architecture forward. They didn't have the manpower to both port a highend GPU to 14FF, develop Polaris and do a major architectural overhaul of GCN at the same time. Losing revenue to Nvidia for a couple of generations has consequences, sad to say.
 

crashtech

Lifer
Jan 4, 2013
10,556
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Lurking on this thread like a raptor ready to stoop down upon any new AMD GPU. The waiting, though. It kills.
 

Cookie Monster

Diamond Member
May 7, 2005
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Well, they needed to move the architecture forward. They didn't have the manpower to both port a highend GPU to 14FF, develop Polaris and do a major architectural overhaul of GCN at the same time. Losing revenue to Nvidia for a couple of generations has consequences, sad to say.

Its a big risk they are taking given the position they are in imo. Instead of investing into a high end GCN4 based GPU (they released P10, P11 and P12 which cover the bottom half of the GPU performance spectrum), they skipped this and went straight to GCN5 ala VEGA. The question is, will this pay off in the long run given Volta could easily be what Pascal was to Polaris.

On the other hand, a hypothetical polaris based GPU that accommodates 48CU, 384bit memory interface (something that maintained a TDP of <225W) might have been good for them to atleast have an AMD alternative at the low/mid high end instead of completely giving away the high end for one financial year (and counting) to its competitor. A 20~30% (or higher?) performing part wouldn't have been too bad imo but such is reality that at the end of the day I guess it all came down to ROI given limited resources.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
On the other hand, a hypothetical polaris based GPU that accommodates 48CU, 384bit memory interface (something that maintained a TDP of <225W) might have been good for them to atleast have an AMD alternative at the low/mid high end instead of completely giving away the high end for one financial year (and counting) to its competitor. A 20~30% (or higher?) performing part wouldn't have been too bad imo but such is reality that at the end of the day I guess it all came down to ROI given limited resources.

Yeah, I guess AMD gamble that selling more of a mid range AIB was the best ROI. Would have been true, but miners a draining the well for consumers. Doesn't matter for AMD in terms of unit sales, but it does damage to their image and impact on the gaming community.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
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Now that Vega has been confirmed to be indefinitely delayed,

Where are the apologies from all the people who called me a liar and a troll?





Trolling VC&G again.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director
 
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beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
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On the other hand, a hypothetical polaris based GPU that accommodates 48CU, 384bit memory interface (something that maintained a TDP of <225W) might have been good for them to atleast have an AMD alternative at the low/mid high end instead of completely giving away the high end for one financial year (and counting) to its competitor. A 20~30% (or higher?) performing part wouldn't have been too bad imo but such is reality that at the end of the day I guess it all came down to ROI given limited resources.

Agree it came down to ROI. Polaris is mainstream and probably wasn't that expensive to design. Mainstream means you get the volume to make it profitable. Still it is a problem. Anyone on AMDs camp that bought Hawaii-based card has not had a reason to upgrade in 3 years and 8 month. Fijji did not bring much to the table unless you game at 4k. Polaris also does not bring much vs Hawaii. So most who actually owned a Hawaii-based card gave AMD 0 money. If they bought a new card, it most likely was one from Nvidia.

Still AMD had no choice. Vega, a new GCN uArch, was required.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
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Confirmed? Source?


Miners are going to screw this one up as bad as they did Hawaii, but still. Where did you hear that?

Just about everyone here on this forum was convinced that Vega was going to be announced at Computex and released before the end of June.

I said long before Computex that Vega has been indefinitely delayed.
 

Mockingbird

Senior member
Feb 12, 2017
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Only it's not. Delayed yes, but not "indefinitely". There is release date for Vega FE, and there is a release window for RX Vega.

Radeon Vega FE don't count. It would be like NVIDIA saying that Volta is ready out since V100 GPU Accelerator has been released.

AMD said that it will "talk more" about Radeon RX Vega at SIGGRAPH for a very specific reason: AMD doesn't know when the product will be ready.

Notice how the actual launch date for Radeon RX Vega was not mentioned.

If Radeon RX Vega is ready in time for SIGGRAPH, AMD will launch Radeon RX Vega at the event.

If Radeon RX Vega is not ready for SIGGRAPH, AMD will only be making an announced as to when Radeon RX Vega should be available.
 

Veradun

Senior member
Jul 29, 2016
564
780
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Dreams:
Radeon Vega FE don't count. It would be like NVIDIA saying that Volta is ready out since V100 GPU Accelerator has been released.

AMD said that it will "talk more" about Radeon RX Vega at SIGGRAPH for a very specific reason: AMD doesn't know when the product will be ready.

Notice how the actual launch date for Radeon RX Vega was not mentioned.

If Radeon RX Vega is ready in time for SIGGRAPH, AMD will launch Radeon RX Vega at the event.

If Radeon RX Vega is not ready for SIGGRAPH, AMD will only be making an announced as to when Radeon RX Vega should be available.

Facts:
In addition, AMD showcased the highly-anticipated Radeon™ RX Vega graphics card, asserting that the "Vega" architecture based gaming powerhouse is expected to launch at SIGGRAPH 2017

http://www.amd.com/en-us/press-releases/Pages/amd-exhibits-pc-2017may30.aspx
 

T1beriu

Member
Mar 3, 2017
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Mockingbird just take you pile of pathological lying and your defective Crystal redactedto another forum.

Personal attacks are not allowed
Markfw
Anandtech Moderator



Profanity is not allowed in the tech forums.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
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Had they simply taken Fiji performance and added what they could with the 14nm power savings (30-40%) they would have at least matched 1080. Neither here nor there now, even though this chip was feasible they simply didn't have the manpower to get it done.
The negative to this strategy is to always fall further behind. Dying slowly following a rearguard action. There is no way AMD can compete with Nvidia, [Intel also, for that matter] using traditional practices. They arrived at another one.

Well, they needed to move the architecture forward. They didn't have the manpower to both port a highend GPU to 14FF, develop Polaris and do a major architectural overhaul of GCN at the same time. Losing revenue to Nvidia for a couple of generations has consequences, sad to say.
It appears to be increasingly obvious that they are going small die tied together with a very energy and latency efficient network. The old ways could not work well here and being R&D constrained, we get a piecemeal introduction of the tech.

Fiji introduced HBM, Ryzen introduces IF, and we see Vega introducing the HBCC as the penultimate major hurdle, with the Navi die as the last one. A lot of posters keep saying that AMD isn't responding to Nvidia and leaving so much answered, but I really don't think we're seeing a response, but the following of a long term networked small die strategy.

They might have to go with a software configured instead of hardware command processor, like Nvidia, so no main die needed.
The HBCCs can easily connect the various L2 caches in the various Sub units and also link them to the various HBM stacks.
IF appears to be very robust and easily configurable.

Navi is the only chance AND has of ever regaining at least parity with Nvidia. Nvidia can afford a custom process allowing monster 800mm^2 die. There is no way a AMD can compete following that route. Last year, some of us were roughly speculating on the small multi-die strategy and my biggest concern was (1) overcoming the problems of a command processor in a master die, (2) the energy used by data and signal traffic between the various sub-units making the total very inefficient. IF appears to be designed for overcoming these roadblocks, and I can see why they're not opening the tech.

In the world AMD is trying to create, reticle limits pretty much don't matter to maximum size GPUs, and we will know a lot more when Naples and Threadripper are released. The relative efficiency with them to Ryzen is going to show us the efficiency of IF and it's applicability to connecting GPUs.

First to 7nm with a monster stitched together top model. Who wants?
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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The negative to this strategy is to always fall further behind. Dying slowly following a rearguard action. There is no way AMD can compete with Nvidia, [Intel also, for that matter] using traditional practices. They arrived at another one.

I don't think AMD GFX has 'arrived' at another point yet. They are paving the way - but NV is a moving target with a huge treasure chest. From what I've seen so far, TRG needs to be executing much better than they are. Honestly, what I hope for at, at this point, is that Ryzen and the Ryzen based APU will take up all the production capacity at GF. Then TRG (the radeon group) can move back to TSMC. I think this would be the best play for them (doesn't seem like GF has done as well executing on large ASICs).

As far as the multi-die strategy, so long as NV is able to stay ahead of AMD with ~400mm2 GPUs, AMD will have a tough time grabbing back market share. The engineering for stitching together two dice with some fast and wide fabric will be very challenging, IMHO. Unless IF scales up really to that level, AMD will need some customer interconnect system, and even then, there will be latency issues with off-die communication of shared info.
 

Snarf Snarf

Senior member
Feb 19, 2015
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It's the long play on AMD's part, I don't think Radeon is going anywhere, worst case scenario they still have a very robust semi-custom portfolio. I wish we had some insight on where the delays were coming from, GF shouldn't be having any issues after having 14nm for this long. It has to either be HBM supply issues or this really is a completely different uarch that requires a whole new driver approach than before.Vega is already in the wild is it not? There's that game streaming service that you pay for per minute that came out and is already using Vega to power it's cloud service.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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I don't think AMD GFX has 'arrived' at another point yet. They are paving the way - but NV is a moving target with a huge treasure chest. From what I've seen so far, TRG needs to be executing much better than they are. Honestly, what I hope for at, at this point, is that Ryzen and the Ryzen based APU will take up all the production capacity at GF. Then TRG (the radeon group) can move back to TSMC. I think this would be the best play for them (doesn't seem like GF has done as well executing on large ASICs).

As far as the multi-die strategy, so long as NV is able to stay ahead of AMD with ~400mm2 GPUs, AMD will have a tough time grabbing back market share. The engineering for stitching together two dice with some fast and wide fabric will be very challenging, IMHO. Unless IF scales up really to that level, AMD will need some customer interconnect system, and even then, there will be latency issues with off-die communication of shared info.
By arrive, I mean another strategy. I never meant they have finished the journey.

Yes, they appear to be delayed.

Ryzen appears more energy efficient than Intel so GloFlo/Samsung process can't be that bad. Porting to TSMC is a non starter long term. Nvidia will have 1st call on wafers.

Executing large ASICs don't matter with the small-die approach. That is one of it's great value. Early good yield access to new nodes. Do you really think AMD stating quite clearly their early bold [foolhardy?] move to 7nm has nothing to do with yields? They must be fabbing small die for both CPUs and GPUs.

There is no true reticle limit to composite ASIC size. Interposer limits become the barriers to max size. What about a 1000mm^2 + stitched together top model clocked for great energy efficiency.

IF can scale to 512 bits at least, according to AMD. As I said, Naples and Threadripper will tell a lot more of it's capabilities.

Last year in the multi-die thread, I linked a Xilink paper showing signal latency using an SI interposer is the same as on die. I am assuming the multi-die are all on a shared interposer, not through the PCB.

Why do you think multi-die means 2? I'm thinking 1 to 8 ratio, top to bottom. Huge product stack, small development cost.

Small die are lot cheaper/mm^2. We might very well have a much larger AMD die competing with a smaller Nvidia one, while costing equal or even less to fab.

Certainly development cost has large savings, similarly fabbing one product must be amazing for inventory control and product flexibility. [Points to Ryzen]

The amazing thing is we that we have a stated goal as scalability in Navi, before the comments were removed [Raja spilled the beans too early?]. We have a very early use of 7nm. New nodes being traditional only used for small mobile ASICs due to associated costs and dfficulties with larger ones. We have the CPU side following a similar strategy. Is it really such a leap?
 
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