Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
1,714
3,938
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Any hope I had left for RX Vega died with this event. Looks like the worst case scenario is true, RX Vega is around GTX 1080 performance, except it is a much larger (and more power-hungry) chip, which means they can't even price it really low to make it an attractive product without having almost nonexistent margins.

This will probably be the biggest failure in the GPU scene since a long, long time.

Agreed. This must mean it's worse clock-for-clock vs Fury, as FE Edition. I hope now, finally some members will realize that people saying that those miraculous 40% driver improvements will not happen, werent all shills

Still really bad though, I need a new video card, and having a 375W TDP water-cooled card barely beating a 180W 1080GTX, is not really something I have in mind, particularily as GTX20xx cards will be out this autumn.
 

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
666
904
136
Agreed. This must mean it's worse clock-for-clock vs Fury, as FE Edition. I hope now, finally some members will realize that people saying that those miraculous 40% driver improvements will not happen, werent all shills

I just have to wonder what Raja and co. were doing to create such a massive failure. Polaris was in development since before he was with AMD but Vega is a different story. Instead of finally achieving a leap over the old GCN with its first significant revision after leaving the high end GPU market for 2 years, they've basically made zero progress.

Oh well, I still trust AMD will price it well, and performance should look more favorable as new games come out and make use of its advanced features.
 
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Feld

Senior member
Aug 6, 2015
287
95
101
The development of Polaris and Vega were roughly concurrent. Back before the change to astronomical nomenclature, AMD's roadmaps had the next series of chips to be named after Arctic islands. The smaller mainstream chip known as Ellesmere got renamed to Polaris, and the larger enthusiast chip known as Greenland got renamed to Vega. Vega was then delayed by a year+ vs. Polaris, but unless I'm badly misremembering, all indications are that development on both chips began at roughly the same time.

I just have to wonder what Raja and co. were doing to create such a massive failure. Polaris was in development since before he was with AMD but Vega is a different story. Instead of finally achieving a leap over the old GCN with its first significant revision after leaving the high end GPU market for 2 years, they've basically made zero progress.

Oh well, I still trust AMD will price it well, and performance should look more favorable as new games come out and make use of its advanced features.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
I just have to wonder what Raja and co. were doing to create such a massive failure. Polaris was in development since before he was with AMD but Vega is a different story. Instead of finally achieving a leap over the old GCN with its first significant revision after leaving the high end GPU market for 2 years, they've basically made zero progress.

Oh well, I still trust AMD will price it well, and performance should look more favorable as new games come out and make use of its advanced features.


Building a HPC/data center/AI/professional market chip first and foremost. It's clear they've spent their time getting the chip flying in the high margin markets. Gaming is an afterthought.

http://www.tomshardware.de/vega-ben...ngsaufnahme-gaming,testberichte-242375-6.html
 
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Elixer

Lifer
May 7, 2002
10,376
762
126
Incredible. Waited 2 hours in the queue, but gave up. Very unprofessional organization.

This is what I have been told:
They had a FreeSync and a G-Sync system, one equipped with an RX Vega, the other with a GTX 1080, display was some 100 Hz ASUS.
The "contest" was to tell which one performs better. You have 2 minutes with each system. Finito.
Additionally, they have some ASUS gear to show.

That's it. Don't know who is / was responsible for this. What a joke.
Thanks for the first hand information.

So, the new marketing line will be, Gsync is more $$$ than freesync (which everyone already knew), the FE's benches were pretty much on target with RX, and they have no answer to the 1080ti.

I would fire the marketing team. No excuse for "poor Volta" rhetoric, they set the bar so high, and it was obvious they couldn't deliver anything this year.
 

Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
96
Welp.. I have to admit, i'm pretty gutted about that performance.

Now for me it will come down to how much it costs in the UK, how much I can undervolt it, and how much a 1080ti is. I can always just lock my freesync monitor to 144fps.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
126
Reading through some of the posts over r/AMD. It seems opinions are mixed. One twitter post is used as an example of one side being "better" but that same Twitter post has wrong information (stating 4K monitors) so I'd take it with a grain of salt. Where as some posts claiming they were there are saying there wasn't much different. At some point there was a hitch which may have caused for results to skew in one direction (if I had to guess, it was against AMD, otherwise why fix it?) which was fixed and resulted in what seems to be more opinions of similar results.

One poster made me laugh asking if AMD would really OK such an event if their product wasn't superior. Quickly reminded me of the first Pepsi challenge between G-Sync and FreeSync, where AMD okayed it even though there are glaring issues which hurt their product demo. (I'm sure someone here remembers it better and can dig it up.)

Welps, we got a few more days to go. This has been one hell of a ride, if anything else.
 

Tup3x

Golden Member
Dec 31, 2016
1,012
1,002
136
Lets wait for RX Vega, and then come out with torches against AMD.
They did that when they launched Polaris. Even back then it was rather disgusting marketing.

Incredible. Waited 2 hours in the queue, but gave up. Very unprofessional organization.

This is what I have been told:
They had a FreeSync and a G-Sync system, one equipped with an RX Vega, the other with a GTX 1080, display was some 100 Hz ASUS.
The "contest" was to tell which one performs better. You have 2 minutes with each system. Finito.
Additionally, they have some ASUS gear to show.

That's it. Don't know who is / was responsible for this. What a joke.
That's the usual "we offer good enough performance". "You aren't going to see any real word difference." In practice, it means they aren't going to be faster. If that would have been the case they would have shown pure raw numbers. And if they used GTX 1080 it means they aren't targeting GTX 1080 Ti. That would mean the VEGA FE numbers are quite accurate.

We'll see...
 
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ozzy702

Golden Member
Nov 1, 2011
1,151
530
136
They did that when they launched Polaris. Even back then it was rather disgusting marketing.


That's the usual "we offer good enough performance". "You aren't going to see any real word difference." In practice, it means they aren't going to be faster. If that would have been the case they would have shown pure raw numbers. And if they used GTX 1080 it means they aren't targeting GTX 1080 Ti. That would mean the VEGA FE numbers are quite accurate.

We'll see...

Agreed. Vega is going to be 18 months late and extremely disappointing. Only way AMD can salvage the PR is to sell it at cost.
 

Magic Hate Ball

Senior member
Feb 2, 2017
290
250
96
Agreed. Vega is going to be 18 months late and extremely disappointing. Only way AMD can salvage the PR is to sell it at cost.

Well, maybe 15 months late, but that's just being picky

I'll take a hot Vega at cost to pair with my C32HG70 (got the pre-order bargain of $575!)
 
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Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
Agreed. Vega is going to be 18 months late and extremely disappointing. Only way AMD can salvage the PR is to sell it at cost.

18 months?? How do you figure? It was originally going to be announced in late 2016. We are now in mid 2017. Basic math suggest it is not 18 months.
 

ozzy702

Golden Member
Nov 1, 2011
1,151
530
136
18 months?? How do you figure? It was originally going to be announced in late 2016. We are now in mid 2017. Basic math suggest it is not 18 months.

Ok, I was remembering wrong, it's only 13 months late to the game. If it's an 1080 competitor (it will cost AMD significantly more to produce) then it's over a year late to the game. AMD will have to sell this thing at near cost to sell units plain and simple. Now if it could hash decent at least they'd have the miners but unless custom ROMs can work miracles I don't see it being popular with how power hungry and hot it runs.

A 1070 mines almost the same for less than half the power. 1070's can also run off a single eight pin. Absolutely no reason to consider Vega unless custom ROMs bump the hash rate up to at least 40mh/s.

I have friends that have been waiting for Vega for a solid year because they were going to buy cheaper freesync monitors, I bet money they change their tunes once this disaster is finally released. At least AMD released a game changing product with Ryzen.
 

iwulff

Junior Member
Jun 3, 2017
24
7
81
Any hope I had left for RX Vega died with this event. Looks like the worst case scenario is true, RX Vega is around GTX 1080 performance, except it is a much larger (and more power-hungry) chip, which means they can't even price it really low to make it an attractive product without having almost nonexistent margins.

This will probably be the biggest failure in the GPU scene since a long, long time.
Reportedly most people found the RX Vega + FreeSync smoother then the 1080 + GSync, which is telling. Perhaps it tells us something about FreeSync vs GSync, but it also could indicate there is a larger then expected difference between Vega and the 1080 at least in the scenario they set up.

When I read these forums or reddit or whatever everyone seems so assured this is going to become a failure. There is not even any speculation in the comments, just people who know what Vega RX really is, a dud. Let's wait 2 weeks and when we have hopefully all the details make a call on it?
 

Samwell

Senior member
May 10, 2015
225
47
101
I just have to wonder what Raja and co. were doing to create such a massive failure. Polaris was in development since before he was with AMD but Vega is a different story. Instead of finally achieving a leap over the old GCN with its first significant revision after leaving the high end GPU market for 2 years, they've basically made zero progress.

Oh well, I still trust AMD will price it well, and performance should look more favorable as new games come out and make use of its advanced features.

If you don't have money and people, what can you do? At the financial analyst day Raja mentioned that till 2015 the AMD management thought GPUs are a shrinking market. Maxwell probably showed them that it's not the case. But till that time AMD probably reduced the r&d in gpus massively and thought that professional/datacenter are the only gpu markets where they'll be able to make money, so focused more on these parts. But reducing r&d won't work out if your rival is going on with full speed.

From 2015 on amd added more people and r&d to the graphics division, but this won't help vega much. Vega was only 1 year from tapeout, so the people could only help in implementing the architecture, but not change it much anymore. Vegas architecture was build at the time in which amd spend the lowest amout on gpu r&d and they added a ton of features. But unfortunately features can be implemented in efficient and non-efficient ways and when you're restricted with way too low ressources the latter is quite probable.
 
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Ancalagon44

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2010
3,274
202
106
If you don't have money and people, what can you do? At the financial analyst day Raja mentioned that till 2015 the AMD management thought GPUs are a shrinking market. Maxwell probably showed them that it's not the case. But till that time AMD probably reduced the r&d in gpus massively and thought that professional/datacenter are the only gpu markets where they'll be able to make money, so focused more on these parts. But reducing r&d won't work out if your rival is going on with full speed.

From 2015 on amd added more people and r&d to the graphics division, but this won't help vega much. Vega was only 1 year from tapeout, so the people could only help in implementing the architecture, but not change it much anymore. Vegas architecture was build at the time in which amd spend the lowest amout on gpu r&d and they added a ton of features. But unfortunately features can be implemented in efficient and non-efficient ways and when you're restricted with way too low ressources the latter is quite probable.

Could be what happened.

In which case, I think AMD will release Vega 10 and 11 soon to middling reception. As fast as a 1080 but at far higher power draw, and not all that profitable for AMD.

Next year will see the release of Vega 20 and Vega 21, with Navi pushed back to 2019. Vega 20 and 21 will have improved power draw and IPC, maybe higher clockspeed if we are lucky.

Source: my own prediction, no basis in anything.
 

guskline

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2006
5,338
476
126
Stuka87 is correct. The drummer boy video is right up there with Joe Macri's FuryX "overclocker's dream" comment.

Sad.
 

Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
1,714
3,938
136
One of my biggest gripes with Vega isn't it's performance now , but that it will have to compete up until the entire year of 2018. That means that even against GTX 3xxx series. That's ridiculous!

 

Veradun

Senior member
Jul 29, 2016
564
780
136
Well... that slide says Vega will address a bigger market in 2018 than in 2017.

I'll leave conclusions to the reader
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Well... that slide says Vega will address a bigger market in 2018 than in 2017.

I'll leave conclusions to the reader

From the slide it seems to me that Consoles will address higher TAM volume in 2018 vs 2017, not Vega.
 

Guru

Senior member
May 5, 2017
830
361
106
Raja needs to be fired NOW! He has delivered failure after failure, AMD needs a better lead in the GPU segment, its clear that their GPU's are too imbalanced. Too heavy on the shaders and pixel starved, as well as feeding those shaders is a big issue for them.

I was holding out hope that with optimizations in the driver and a bit higher and more stable clocks the RX Vega will gain 10% on the Vega FE and beat the 1080 in most games, but this is just not the case.

AMD sucks in DX11 even more now, GCN 4.0 and the 400/500 series are actually way more DX11 efficient and it seems like their DX12/Vulkan advantage with GCN 4 is gone with Vega as well.

At this point upscaling the RX 580 will be a much wiser choice and its actually going to consume less power as well. GCN 4 also seems to scale more with cores, so adding 1000 cores is likely to increase performance over the RX 580 at same clocks and memory bandwidth by over 60%. Add in increased clocks to 1600MHz, GDDR5x memory and more like 70% added performance. At about 4000 processing cores which is almost double its current cores it would be over 100% faster than a 580, meaning competitive with the 1080.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
146
Raja needs to be fired NOW! He has delivered failure after failure, AMD needs a better lead in the GPU segment, its clear that their GPU's are too imbalanced. Too heavy on the shaders and pixel starved, as well as feeding those shaders is a big issue for them.

I was holding out hope that with optimizations in the driver and a bit higher and more stable clocks the RX Vega will gain 10% on the Vega FE and beat the 1080 in most games, but this is just not the case.

AMD sucks in DX11 even more now, GCN 4.0 and the 400/500 series are actually way more DX11 efficient and it seems like their DX12/Vulkan advantage with GCN 4 is gone with Vega as well.

At this point upscaling the RX 580 will be a much wiser choice and its actually going to consume less power as well. GCN 4 also seems to scale more with cores, so adding 1000 cores is likely to increase performance over the RX 580 at same clocks and memory bandwidth by over 60%. Add in increased clocks to 1600MHz, GDDR5x memory and more like 70% added performance. At about 4000 processing cores which is almost double its current cores it would be over 100% faster than a 580, meaning competitive with the 1080.

If the speculation about the timing of Vega tapeout and the previous management design path is true, then Raja was more or less brought on board too late to address much of Polaris or even Vega, to truly "fix" whatever might be inherently wrong with it. I think it has been said before, many times, that Navi would be the first true Raja team design. Hell, it's entirely possible that Vega would have been an even greater disaster were it not for Raja's team eking out whatever improvements they could. Or not, no one knows (publicly, anyway). AMD knows, though. I think it's best to let them decide what is best for AMD going forward and clearly, new management and overall design is light-years ahead of what they had prior to Su.
 
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