Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
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If that thing is 450-500mm2 + HBM2 with more than 200W TDP and get that performance they <redacted> up big time.

Profanity is not allowed in the technical forums
Markfw
Anandtech Moderator
 
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french toast

Senior member
Feb 22, 2017
988
825
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Now when RX 580 and GTX 1060 are being sold at €300-350 price range, and GTX 1070 goes for €500, I think Vega priced at ~ €500-500 and with 250W TDP is the best thing gamers could get at this moment
Nope sorry.
Those cards are priced like that because of mining not their gaming performance, but granted 300$ is 300$ for what ever reason.

Gtx 1080 is what 500$? Depending on where you live, it will likely out perform Vega on majority of games for at least rest of 2017, it will overclock better in all likelihood, it consumes about half the power- yes things like this do matter with that much difference.

250w? Your having a laugh aren't you?
 

Samwell

Senior member
May 10, 2015
225
47
101
it still cost around 650USD here in eu.We all can only thanks miners.
Btw miners will buy out vega anyway.They buy out everything that is not at 2-3x MSRP.

Situation should get better with next months. In August the increased production will land on the shelfes and it's not anymore so profitable to mine, so not so many people will buy new mining rigs. Of course situation will change if ether skyrockets again.
 

thecoolnessrune

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2005
9,673
580
126
Yeah, I'm not sure what the dicussion is right now with regard to MSRP? The Graphics Card market has been bumped up multiple price brackets because of miners, and the effective price is way higher. There is room for AMD to split the difference between miner markup and MSRP and remain flexible (cut the price after initial "demand" dies). Currently the lowest price 1080 on Newegg is $550USD. Compared to the $400 MSRP, there's plenty of margin in there. If it's a successful mining card, they'll still sell every one that they can make. As such, there's plenty of room with retailers for AMD to cut into that reseller margin. As long as they sell quick to miners, retailers will keep buying them even if the NVIDIA equivalent leaves them more margin.
 

Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
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ok? You're not the first to state that over the past month in these threads. Thanks for your contribution.

And the problem with that is?

I want Vega to succeed. I bought a monitor in preperation for Vega succeeding (I know, I know, daft).

Radeon talked the talk but as more and more info and benchmarks leak out, plus our data from Vega FE, we can see that it can't walk the walk.

So if it can't beat the (15 month old) competition, draws more power than the competition, and doesn't outprice the competition.. How is it not dead in the water?
 

Malogeek

Golden Member
Mar 5, 2017
1,390
778
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yaktribe.org
Because your comments won't change anything and they've been repeated here ad nauseum. You decide if the product is right for you with your wallet.

I'm waiting to see what the AIB versions are like and will decide if the power usage and heat characteristics are fine with me and likely buy one, because I'm hoping to get around 1080 performance for $500 but I definitely do not want to buy a Pascal. If I find that Vega isn't right for me, I'll see if Volta is improved in areas I dislike Pascal for and decide then. I'm also going to see if the AIO version is within my preferred price range.

The point is, I'm going to wait until RX Vega and the AIB versions are out, there are decent reviews and then and only then decide for myself if AMD have truly created a terrible product or not.
 

Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
96
And the rest of us know that Volta is expected H1 2018, with Vega AIB cards liable to arrive in what, 1 month, 2 months after the reference release.. The average prospective buyer could be looking at Q4 before they can get their hands on an AIB Vega.

At this point, poor Volta looks like sheer irony.
 
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Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
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And the problem with that is?

I want Vega to succeed. I bought a monitor in preperation for Vega succeeding (I know, I know, daft).

Radeon talked the talk but as more and more info and benchmarks leak out, plus our data from Vega FE, we can see that it can't walk the walk.

So if it can't beat the (15 month old) competition, draws more power than the competition, and doesn't outprice the competition.. How is it not dead in the water?

Because you will still have a video card that is more performant than the one you had. What does it matter that Vega is competing with 1070s and 1080s? Isn't that a concern for AMD? Why does that matter at all to any of us? Unless you have stock it doesn't matter. This isn't an investment forum so it doesn't matter. Is power seriously your top concern? You spend $500+ on video cards, but less than the power of an incandescent bulb is now the worst thing in computing? As far as price, it generally will line up with the performance of the product vs competing products. Why should AMD automatically price is less than Nvidia? AMD has tried that and it doesn't really work. If they do then great, but expecting they need to is silly.

If you visit any AMD specific forum you people that are anxiously waiting for Vega. There are few that just didn't want to wait. That's fine. Acting like AMD won't sell cards is just not true. I'm buying one. It's going to be a great upgrade from my Fury. There will be people upgrading from Polaris and older cards.

One argument that needs to die is that AMD shouldn't release Vega at all. That is not the way business works. AMD sunk R&D into Vega. AMD would be wasting more money by not releasing a gaming product. Their product might not sell as well as a better, more performant version, but they still recoup at least some R&D costs. This is business 101 people. I would also argue that Vega's main goal was to get AMD into prosumer systems with FE and HPC/data center/AI with Instinct. If that is their main goal then building gaming cards is just a bonus.
 
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Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
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I dunno. Sunk R&D costs to defray, yes. Still there are some costs to preparing it as a gaming SKU, doing the packaging etc etc. Especially for the AIB's - I really can't see why they'd bother at this point.

It looks likely to be a very hard sell vs Pascal, and a basically impossible one vs Volta - and it definitely isn't totally impossible that GV104 will arrive before AIB versions of Vega do.
 

Crumpet

Senior member
Jan 15, 2017
745
539
96
Because you will still have a video card that is more performant than the one you had. What does it matter that Vega is competing with 1070s and 1080s? Isn't that a concern for AMD? Why does that matter at all to any of us? Unless you have stock it doesn't matter. This isn't an investment forum so it doesn't matter. Is power seriously your top concern? You spend $500+ on video cards, but less than the power of an incandescent bulb is now the worst thing in computing? As far as price, it generally will line up with the performance of the product vs competing products. Why should AMD automatically price is less than Nvidia? AMD has tried that and it doesn't really work. If they do then great, but expecting they need to is silly.

If you visit any AMD specific forum you people that are anxiously waiting for Vega. There are few that just didn't want to wait. That's fine. Acting like AMD won't sell cards is just not true. I'm buying one. It's going to be a great upgrade from my Fury. There will be people upgrading from Polaris and older cards.

One argument that needs to die is that AMD shouldn't release Vega at all. That is not the way business works. AMD sunk R&D into Vega. AMD would be wasting money by not releasing a gaming product. Your product might not sell as well as a better, more performant version, but you still recoup at least some your R&D costs. This is business 101 people. I would also argue that Vega's main goal was to get AMD into prosumer systems with FE and HPC/data center/AI with Instinct. If that is their main goal then building gaming cards is just a bonus.

Hard to argue with that.

You're probably correct, Vega was designed initially to be prosumer, AMD was quoted back in H1 2016 that Vega was designed to be “the fastest GPU in the world for data scientists and immersion engineers” and I have no idea if it does or does not meet that target.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
I dunno. Sunk R&D costs to defray, yes. Still there are some costs to preparing it as a gaming SKU, doing the packaging etc etc. Especially for the AIB's - I really can't see why they'd bother at this point.

It looks likely to be a very hard sell vs Pascal, and a basically impossible one vs Volta - and it definitely isn't totally impossible that GV104 will arrive before AIB versions of Vega do.

You are correct that they have to build the chips which requires more investment, but don't you think their analysts have already run the numbers?

Consumer Volta is a ways off. Nvidia shipped p100 and v100 in June. The PCI-E versions come in December. Feb-Apr for Titan, late May for consumer. I do not think Nvidia is going to give up their astronomically high margin business to release gaming cards. Keep in mind that Vega and Volta architectures are more similar to each other than Vega and Pascal. Performance aside, technically AMD beat Nvidia to the punch in the architectural class and tier Instinct is in. It's also got advanced features that Nvidia doesn't have that are pretty useful for big data.
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,558
1,181
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Beginning to think AMD truly shifted their focus away from gaming and purposely designed Vega for compute workloads. See it equaling the GP102 chips at roughly same efficiency and speed.. Reminds me of before nvidia split the Quadro/Tesla line and Geforce line. Fermi did double duty in both.. but they later distilled that down to Kepler for gaming and saw wonderful efficiency (and thus top end speed) increase.

I will state again I am obviously withholding final judgement until I see reputable RX Vega benchmarks but if it does indeed barely beat a 1080 at such a huge die size and power consumption then I will be forced to believe RTG has shifted its focus.
 

Malogeek

Golden Member
Mar 5, 2017
1,390
778
136
yaktribe.org
Beginning to think AMD truly shifted their focus away from gaming and purposely designed Vega for compute workloads.
More that they tried to fill both purposes with a single design, which as you mentioned Nvidia has done before as well and just as with Vega, paid for it with large chips, heat and power usage. AMD just don't have the resources of Nvidia and this is the result of trying to fill both markets. They desperately need to get into the professional market more so this is their answer to that this time around.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
Hard to argue with that.

You're probably correct, Vega was designed initially to be prosumer, AMD was quoted back in H1 2016 that Vega was designed to be “the fastest GPU in the world for data scientists and immersion engineers” and I have no idea if it does or does not meet that target.

They also told us they are targeting high margin business @ financial analyst day. Keep in mind what they said about Polaris. Polaris was to get them into the gaming tiers that sell the most cards. Now they are going high margin? That is a 180 change in strategy in 1 card generation. It only makes sense if they are going after non-gaming market segments first and foremost. I think it's the right call for the business. It's clear gaming Vega is suffering for it because they can only build one chip for everything.

If you think about it, AMD has always been the company pushing boundaries with tech. Nvidia on the other hand is very good at delivering exactly what the market needs at the time their products release. AMD's advanced tech and wide compute heavy architecture is really more suited for non-gaming anyways. I think non-gaming industries are more likely to fully use their chips. Gaming development is nightmare of trying to convince devs to use your features. Additionally there are only so many devs that are even capable of exploiting GPU architectures to their fullest. Better for AMD to think outside of gaming like Nvidia has been doing.
 
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sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
149
106
It only makes sense if they are going after non-gaming market segments first and foremost. I think it's the right call for the business. It's clear gaming Vega is suffering for it because they can only build one chip for everything.

Vega is as bad for non-gaming market as it is for gaming. Vega is to late to the market and the competition is disrupting the market with a big bang product.

If you think about it, AMD has always been the company pushing boundaries with tech. Nvidia on the other hand is very good at delivering exactly what the market needs at the time their products release. AMD's advanced tech and wide compute heavy architecture is really more suited for non-gaming anyways. I think non-gaming industries are more likely to fully use their chips. Gaming development is nightmare of trying to convince devs to use your features. Additionally there are only so many devs that are even capable of exploiting GPU architectures to their fullest. Better for AMD to think outside of gaming like Nvidia has been doing.

That isnt even close to the truth. nVidia is pushing much more boundries. Pascal is superior to Polaris in every way. Maxwell is superior to Hawaii and Fiji. Fermi was a powerhouse with an architecture copied by AMD. There are only a few generations where AMD has pushed more boundries and delivered a better product.
 

OatisCampbell

Senior member
Jun 26, 2013
302
83
101
that is because 4k Gsync displays cost $300 more compared to freesync meaning that RX Vega will cost the same as GTX 1080 meaning it will sell very poorly.
I think it will sell fine at $499 MSRP. Freesync, mining,fans, dx12, are all big factors.

Personally I think if it comes with an AIO water cooler it will sell out at $549..
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,011
6,459
136
I will state again I am obviously withholding final judgement until I see reputable RX Vega benchmarks but if it does indeed barely beat a 1080 at such a huge die size and power consumption then I will be forced to believe RTG has shifted its focus.

If that's the case, that's the case, but I think a lot of people would have liked AMD to be more forthcoming about it. If they have limited wafers (likely the case considering they have Ryzen, Epyc, and soon their APUs to release all using the same 14 nm GF fab, and RX Vega cannot be sold at a good margin because it isn't a good gaming chip then AMD is far better off not selling it and using the dies for professional cards which have higher margins or for other products.
 

96Firebird

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 2010
5,712
316
126
I think it will sell fine at $499 MSRP. Freesync, mining,fans, dx12, are all big factors.

Personally I think if it comes with an AIO water cooler it will sell out at $549..

These are the same factors that were to sell AMD cards in the past, but they have not moved marketshare much. They need something disruptive, and this doesn't seem to be it.
 
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