videocardzAMD’s official GPU Roadmap for 2016-2018

csbin

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Feb 4, 2013
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http://videocardz.com/59206/amds-official-gpu-roadmap-for-2016-2018



AMD Polaris 10 and Polaris 11 to succeed Radeon Fury and Radeon 300 series

According to the new roadmap, that is slightly more informative than a graph shown at Capsaicin, Polaris architecture might replace both Radeon Fury and Radeon 300 series. This roadmap clearly suggest that all chips might be replaced with silicons based on Polaris architecture. Does this mean there are are no rebrands in Radeon 400 series? Well it might be hard to answer this question right now, but that would be a very good move from AMD.


AMD Radeon R9 490 and R9 480 based on Polaris 10?

New roadmap also sheds some light on what to expect from Radeon 400 series GPU positioning. I think it is highly unlikely Fury series will disappear, instead both Fury and Polaris 10 cards should coexist on the market for some time. AMD otherwise wouldn’t release Radeon Pro Duo, if they were not planning to continue Fiji production.
Also you might have noticed that Fury Series block is much smaller than Polaris 10 block. It could further suggest that Polaris 10 will be used on more cards than just R9 490 series. Polaris 10 could therefore launch as R9 490 and R9 480 series, which I think makes a lot of sense now.
Meanwhile Polaris 11 would fill everything in mid-range and entry-level segments. If I’m right, then AMD made one of the best decisions in years. Rather than keep rebranding existing cards, they are focusing entirely on new architecture. This way if you ever hear about Radeon 400 series, you will immediately know it’s power efficient 14nm FinFET GCN 4.0 architecture.
Furthermore this roadmap also confirms that Polaris 10 and 11 will support HEVC de/encoding and HDMI 2.0, DisplayPort 1.3

AMD Vega and Navi

Moreover, we are told that AMD Vega, first architecture with HBM2, will arrive next year (2017). I think this is important, because some of our readers that were literally counting pixels on Capsaicin graph, were still hoping for late 2016 launch. Well this roadmap clearly says there is no Vega this year, but well it’s just a roadmap, it can always change.
In 2018 AMD will unveil its new Navi architecture that will bring NextGen memory. For now AMD representatives refuse to describe what is hidden behind this phrase.
Also I encourage you to check our new page dedicated to GPU Roadmaps, where we keep the latest information about hew chips.

 

DooKey

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Nov 9, 2005
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What do you think about this roadmap and do you have an opinion on whether it is good or not?
 

parkerface

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Aug 15, 2015
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HBM2 seems plenty nextgen to me. What could Navi's "NextGen" possibly offer that HBM2 won't??
 

maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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Three architectures. It looks like Vega is more than a big Polaris with HBM2.
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
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So AMD is following Nvidia's strategy now of small die first and hoping it leads to bigger profits.
 

R0H1T

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Jan 12, 2013
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I predict Navi will be multi-die on an interposer. Linked up, they will behave as one large chip.
I'd say that's pretty much confirmed, hint scalability :sneaky:


But still there's the hint about next gen memory, so there's a good chance we'll see something along the lines of HBM or HMC, probably something even better.
 
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Adored

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Mar 24, 2016
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Navi is clearly multiple dies on an interposer, there's only one way ahead for silicon.
 

hrga225

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Jan 15, 2016
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HBM2 seems plenty nextgen to me. What could Navi's "NextGen" possibly offer that HBM2 won't??


I believe it will be PIM (processing in memory).

Also,big pro series GPU could be multidie on interposer,cosumer space not so sure.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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I believe it will be PIM (processing in memory).

Also,big pro series GPU could be multidie on interposer,cosumer space not so sure.
Agree with PIM. Cuts down on data transfers so saving power and increasing performance.

Only lowest class might not have interposers. For multi-die to work you scale by mutiplying smaller die, one unit of which should be a mid- range part. If you only use the design for high end parts you throw away the other non-technical advantages of multi-die such as ability to make many parts from one layout, rapid response to varying sales, lower inventory levels needed, etc. Interposer tech should be cheap enough 20 months from now.
 

Samwell

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May 10, 2015
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Interposers with HBM should be down to Mainstream only without low-end, but for amd i also expect Multidie Interposer Solutions at least in the High-End.
The problem is this:


Navi will probable be 10nm and this is even worse in cost, the numbers are also just for SoCs and not Gpus which are more complicated. Somewhere i have read, that at 10nm you will need a revenue of 1 billion $ per die for breakeven. Only then you start to earn money. With Multidie Chips you have a developing cost for the technology, but you need to design 1 die less. AMD doesn't earn enough with gpus to keep on developing so many dies. With Multidie Chips 2 Dies would be enough. Low-End, 2x Low-end on interposer, middle end and 2x middle end for the top.

And whoever says that double chips are bad because of scaling and so on. This won't be the case on these gpus, on interposers you can let 2 gpus behave like 1 without crappy cf/sli.
 

xpea

Senior member
Feb 14, 2014
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Navi is clearly multiple dies on an interposer, there's only one way ahead for silicon.
It all depend on your goal. If you target the best Perf/Watt, then its not competitive. For best yields on production, yes multi die is a good solution.

PS: what cost the most energy in today's GPUs is not calculation, but moving data. And moving data between GPUs will kill the efficiency compared to a single die...
 
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May 11, 2008
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I predict Navi will be multi-die on an interposer. Linked up, they will behave as one large chip.

I think so too. GMI links are suited for that.
Or a cpu and a gpu together on an interposer with hbm2.

http://www.dvhardware.net/article62989.html

AMD is working on a coherent data fabric that will eliminate PCIe latency, the first product to receive this technology will be an upcoming exascale-class HSA (Heterogeneous System Architecture) multi-chip-module (MCM) for the server market.

The new interconnect method will offer nearly seven times more performance than the traditional PCIe interface: four Global Memory Interconnects (GMI) will reportedly offer a latency-free 100GB/s link between the CPU and GPU, much more than the 15GB/s at about 500ns latency provided by PCIe x16.

The first MCM with the coherent fabric will reportedly feature a Zeppelin CPU (presumably with Zen-based cores) and a Greenland GPU with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) on the same chip package. The slide below reveals the Greenland GPU promises 4 teraflops of raw computing power and mentions there's a 500GB/s link between the GPU and the HBM.

The chip will support DDR4-3200 memory, which will talk to the CPU at the same 100GB/s. The product is expected sometime in the 2016-2017 timeframe.
 

maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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It all depend on your goal. If you target the best Perf/Watt, then its not competitive. For best yields on production yield, its a good solution.

PS: what cost the most energy in today's GPUs is not calculation, but moving data. And moving data between GPUs will kill the efficiency compared to a single die...
Agreed, but why do you think its absolutely necessary to move a lot of data between processing units.

Another path, seeing that you are not die area limited in an absolute sense is to have more processing units clocked at a lower, much more efficient level. Wider and slower. Many design variables.
 

Adored

Senior member
Mar 24, 2016
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It all depend on your goal. If you target the best Perf/Watt, then its not competitive. For best yields on production yield, its a good solution.

PS: what cost the most energy in today's GPUs is not calculation, but moving data. And moving data between GPUs will kill the efficiency compared to a single die...

There are ways to increase perf/Watt, as mentioned earlier there is PIM. Zero copy being another thing that AMD has been doing for a couple of years now and also having specialist dies ie for audio, physics etc could be an option, or the "control die" method with shader banks either side. It'll be done eventually by some method.

The real deal will be at 10nm when from the get-go, multiple small dies are far ahead of one large die in performance. Even if perf/Watt is slightly higher overall, the raw perf and TTM is what will count by far. There is simply no way a larger monolithic die can compete on yields or price early on in a new node.
 
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I remember from the xbox 360 gpu that the embedded dram was able to perform logical operations on its own.

From wiki :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenos_(graphics_chip)

NEC designed eDRAM die includes additional logic (192 parallel pixel processors) for color, alpha compositing, alpha blending, Z/stencil buffering, and anti-aliasing called “Intelligent Memory”, giving developers 4-sample anti-aliasing at very little performance cost.

If i remember correctly, this technology is patented by Microsoft. But maybe there are other ways to do this as well. I do not know how long it takes before patents expire. Was it not 15 years ? Around 2003 the development of the hardware (xb0x360) started. 2018 would be 15 years later so, maybe microsoft will license their patents to gpu producers. Since AMD and Microsoft are succesful partners, why would AMD not license some of Microsoft patents. Or use it in a hypothetical next generation xbox.

It would make sense that by that time we should start to see (the development of) HBM2 alike memory with additional logic.
 
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20 years for a patent in the US. Very interesting stuff nonetheless

Aha, thank you.
Is it possible to renew the patent ?

Yeah, i just read some more about PIM. I find it very interesting indeed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_RAM

starting with a system with a separate CPU chip and DRAM chip(s), add small amounts of "coprocessor" computational ability to the DRAM, working within the limits of the DRAM process and adding only small amounts of area to the DRAM, to do things that would otherwise be slowed down by the narrow bottleneck between CPU and DRAM: zero-fill selected areas of memory, copy large blocks of data from one location to another, find where (if anywhere) a given byte occurs in some block of data, etc. The resulting system—the unchanged CPU chip, and "smart DRAM" chip(s) -- is at least as fast as the original system, and potentially slightly lower in cost. The cost of the small amount of extra area is expected to be more than paid back in savings in expensive test time, since there is now enough computational capability on a "smart DRAM" for a wafer full of DRAM to do most testing internally in parallel, rather than the traditional approach of fully testing one DRAM chip at a time with an expensive external automatic test equipment.[1]

I had to think of the xbox360 gpu with edram right away.
 
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I do however wonder how much of a benefit it still is when the databus becomes wider (like 4096 bit wide).
 

RussianSensation

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Sep 5, 2003
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So AMD is following Nvidia's strategy now of small die first and hoping it leads to bigger profits.

As monstercameron point out, ATi/AMD has been doing small die for a long time. What changed in 2012 is both AMD/NV moved small/mid-range die to flagship prices. To this date a lot of people on this forum and online deny it since they don't like the idea of accepting that they are paying $550+ for a next gen mid-range card.

This new generational strategy roll-out (bifurcating a generation) was put into motion in 2012 with $500-550 680/7970. Polaris is rumored to be even smaller than GP104 so in my eyes a Pitcairn successor, not even an HD7950/7970 successor!

Don't forget that Pitcairn outperformed AMD's last generation HD6970 flagship. The difference was 6970 was a 389mm2 die not a 596mm2 one.

Remember at the time when HD7000 came out, 28nm was a cutting edge node.

HD7870 = 212mm2



HD7970 = 365mm2 per GPU-Z or 352mm2 per AMD.



It wasn't until R9 290X that AMD started moving towards larger die.



Finally maxing out 28nm at 596mm2 with Fiji.



That means if we break down AMD's 28nm node, it went:

Segment 1 = 7850/7870 = 212mm2 = lower end/low mid-range
Segment 2 = 7950/7970/7970Ghz = 352-365mm2 = mid-range/upper-mid-range
Segment 3 = R9 290/290X/390/390X = 438mm2 = high-end
Segment 4 = Fury X = 596mm2 = enthusiast

I highly doubt that if Polaris 10 is 230-240mm2 that Vega 10 is a 580-610mm2 14nm part. Therefore, I expect a somewhat similar segment roll-out on 14nm for AMD. This would allow them to leave room to bring more performance in 2018 with 550-610mm2 Vega 10 successor. Of course I am just speculating because NV was able to manufacture 610mm2 P100 already.

That's why I think for Hawaii users, Polaris 10 isn't really meant to be a true generational upgrade. That's most likely Vega.

AMD is not even trying to hide that Polaris 10 isn't a next gen flagship card.

 
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