I wouldn't say it all rests on Zen, if they get close to Haswell (or IVB) level of per core performance, with much improved efficiency being on 14nm, they'll have lot of wiggle room to get into servers & notebook segment. Now seeing as how the PC sector is in this supposed free fall they'll have to aim for servers long term, if they want to exist 5yrs from now ~ http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2469686Well said.
AMD is a CPU company with the worst CPU architecture for many generation.
If they had a competitive CPU, their APUs would be selling for a lot more for a long time. That's healthy margins & profits for example that they just don't have now.
Once Zen debuts, a Zen based APU with Polaris and HBM2 will make it that no other company can actually compete with that segment. As far as next-gen consoles, AMD again has it in the bag. With strong evidence it's going to be an AMD APU in Nintendo NX, Sony PS4K (or PS5), and very likely the next Xbox as well.
It is an ecosystem. Major consoles on their hardware. On the PC side, they have their API in DX12/Vulkan. It's far from doom and gloom, 2016 will be a great year for AMD.
But it all rests on Zen. So we can't be fully certain, AMD are their worse enemies afterall.
My guesstimate is they have 14nm to perfect Zen, something like 2yrs till 2018 end, & then the make the upcoming APU's worthwhile for everyone including the Prosumers. I remember the (APU) MCM rumor where it was believed that something like that would work well in the HPC environment, that along with HSA (like NVlink & shared mem for Nvidia/IBM) I'd say will get them close to the requisite perf/W number to challenge Intel in this segment.
Computing, as we know it, is morphing into an amalgam of GPU & CPU, like we've never seen before & GPU's are going to be an even bigger part of the future computing landscape. With AR, VR et al the significance of an APU will only increase & AFAIK AMD still makes the best APU.
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