Vote, Is Nvidia Stock a HOT DEAL?

[jonnyapple83]

Hello all,

I've been watching NVIDIA and other stocks for the last 3 years now. There was a time about 2 years around October where I was very disappointed to see my beloved NVIDIA Stock hit 7$ when I had bought it for 18$. Thankfully within a few months the NVDA share price recovered and I was able to sell for about 22$.


So today I see NVDA has plunged down to a 9-10$ range. How do you other tech/market junkies feel about this? Are there fundamental issues with NVIDIA?s long term future prospects that make this a risky buy?

Doom 3 seems to run great on NVIDIA cards and I am sure Half-life 2 will also run well (but maybe not as well as on ATI cards).

So if anyone is interested let me know your opinions, on what in my opinion seems like a great 0.5-2 year long term investment in NVDA.

 

[usernamemax20charact]

Can you say off topic? Unless you plan on giving us free Nvidia stock....

 

[Redline]

Vote, Is Nvidia Stock a HOT DEAL?

You could've at least added a 'Poll' - sheesh! :roll:

 

[toant103]

sure.

 

[Jaxidian]

Yes, that post should have gone into OT. However, if you would have rephrased it to say something like this:

nVidia Stock at $9-$10 - Very hot IMO
Reasons are this:
1) ...
2) ...
3) ...

Then it might have been appropriate for here. Remember, this forum is ONLY for posting deals that ARE hot, not for asking if deals are hot or getting into an economics discussion.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Long term, an S&P 500 index mutual fund beats most individual stocks and the majority of other mutual funds.

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
Long term, an S&P 500 index mutual fund beats most individual stocks and the majority of other mutual funds.

werd

 

[SSibalNom]

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
Long term, an S&P 500 index mutual fund beats most individual stocks and the majority of other mutual funds.

werd

no market will ever beat the return rate on a fat cocaine rock turned into crack and sold in macarthur park!

 

[Corporate Thug]

Originally posted by: SSibalNom

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
Long term, an S&P 500 index mutual fund beats most individual stocks and the majority of other mutual funds.

werd

no market will ever beat the return rate on a fat cocaine rock turned into crack and sold in macarthur park!

:laugh:

 

[rile0161]

Do I get a free 6800 as a shareholder?

 

[Yobbo]

Originally posted by: rile0161
Do I get a free 6800 as a shareholder?

I would buy a share or two then...

 

[zainali]

ati is hurting them. the problem is not with the 6800. if you read the reports more closely they say the 6800 is flying off the shelf. it is the mainstream stuff that is hurting them with sales down in the mainstream sector.

 

[Dacalo]

Originally posted by: zainali
ati is hurting them. the problem is not with the 6800. if you read the reports more closely they say the 6800 is flying off the shelf. it is the mainstream stuff that is hurting them with sales down in the mainstream sector.

Yep mainstream and lowe-end, which make up majority of the sales. Past two years, Nvidia has lost a tremendous amount of market share, while ATi's profit has doubled.

 

[InlineFive]

Anand's 6800s are croaking too.

 

[thedealmaker]

Its market share is being taken by ATI continously, look at the xbox thing then you know already.

 

[Wag]

Oooh. We doing stock speculation on Hot Deals now?

So is ATT any good?

 

[usernamemax20charact]

Originally posted by: Wag
Oooh. We doing stock speculation on Hot Deals now?

So is ATT any good?

No. I'd stay away from ATT. They're losing marketshare to rivals big time.

 

[abracadabra1]

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons
Long term, an S&P 500 index mutual fund beats most individual stocks and the majority of other mutual funds.

indeed

 

[XNice]

Originally posted by: SSibalNom
no market will ever beat the return rate on a fat cocaine rock turned into crack and sold in macarthur park!

*nod*

a nice quote from Robin Williams, "Cocaine is god's way of saying, you make too much money." lol

 

[DefRef]

I bought at the IPO and watched it soar and split twice, it seemed invincible and was added to a major index (escapes me - S&P 500?), but about 2-1/2 yrs. ago, it dove from ~$75 along with all the other tech stocks and it's been Suckville ever since. Who knew?

The ATI fanchimps did a sackdance on Nvidia head when Xbox 2 switched over to ATI, but M$ was no fun to work with so NV prolly let it go rather than try to fight on price with legendary lowballers ATI. Not that ATI is suddenly back in the usual #2 slot, performance-wise, that may be a bad thing for M$. Heh.

If you think Nvidia is gonna rebound, then this is a hot deal.

 

[Tweakmeister]

I've been following NVDA and ATYT for some time and actually was in ATYT for a while and rode the wave.

When the typical investor on here looks at them, they think mainly retail sales, or sales to the end user. NVDA's core group of buyers are the OEMs....

No doubt titles like Doom3, and HL2 will boost sales. One should not only look at these, but look at OEM sales and other chipset sales to companies like console makers (Xbox, GameCube, etc.).

I was delighted (not for those currently invested mind you) to see the stock come back down from the skies. NVDA has more cash than debt (always a good thing), but lagging free cash flow. Additionally, I feel the P/E ratio of ~29 is still high, although no where near it's previously astronomical ratio.

All in all, I am seriously considering investing in NVDA, but will probably wait to see Monday what's happening. After hours trading NVDA is already up a little.

Comments above are opinion only, I do not currently own shares in any of the stocks listed, and I'm typing on t40p with Ati M9000 with a 9800 Pro in the gaming system right next to me. Those 6800's do look nice though...

 

[sumrtym]

Originally posted by: DefRef
I bought at the IPO and watched it soar and split twice, it seemed invincible and was added to a major index (escapes me - S&P 500?), but about 2-1/2 yrs. ago, it dove from ~$75 along with all the other tech stocks and it's been Suckville ever since. Who knew?

Me, actually. I started a simulated mutual fund to track my investment ability over 2 years ago. I don't actively manage it (trade it everyday) so costs of it are low (not a lot of buy/sell fees), only typically trading a stock maybe once every few years. In that > 2 year time frame:

1. My return has been 54.88% vs the S&P500 of 2.66%.
2. That's a annualized return of 24.34% vs. 1.18% for the S&P500.
3. For this year, I'm down 0.80%. S&P500 is down 2.81%, Dow down 4.70%, and Nasdaq down 9.07%.

I have risk moderated. Out of 21 stocks, only two are down from the purchase prices and they are down less than 11% each. Currunt sector allocation is:

Financials 41.10%
Energy 19.95%
Industrials 19.26%
Information Technology 6.64%
Utilities 5.31%
Health Care 4.02%
Consumer Discretionary 3.72%

I've been thinking about starting a hedge fund and charging for services, myself.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Me, actually. I started a simulated mutual fund to track my investment ability over 2 years ago. ...
1. My return has been 54.88% vs the S&P500 of 2.66%.

Something like 20-30% of actively managed funds do outperform the S&P 500 in the short term. Of course the other 70-80% fail to, some very badly. High risk investing can mean either high payoff or huge losses. Or both over time

Earn +25% a year consistently for 10 years straight and you can make millions with you hedge fund, but a lot of other smart people have tried and failed.

Don't let me stop you though. I'm investing for the 25+ year term so I perfer to go with safe and steady over rolling the dice.

 

[Tweakmeister]

Wow sumrtym sounds like you've definately got things going for yourself.

I guess this thread is starting to go OT, but you bring up an excellent point - diversification.

 

[sumrtym]

Originally posted by: DaveSimmons

Me, actually. I started a simulated mutual fund to track my investment ability over 2 years ago. ...
1. My return has been 54.88% vs the S&P500 of 2.66%.

Something like 20-30% of actively managed funds do outperform the S&P 500 in the short term. Of course the other 70-80% fail to, some very badly. High risk investing can mean either high payoff or huge losses. Or both over time

Earn +25% a year consistently for 10 years straight and you can make millions with you hedge fund, but a lot of other smart people have tried and failed.

Don't let me stop you though. I'm investing for the 25+ year term so I perfer to go with safe and steady over rolling the dice.

I think you're missing the point. I'm not actively trading these stocks. Every one that I've added to the fund is still in it. I pick LONG-TERM, good companies, but would sell if I saw a reason. I don't worry about short-term drops. Accordingly, what I have put together contains less risk than the S&P500 with better returns.

And when I say "hedge fund", that's because it's about the only way to start a fund yourself. So saying, I absolutely REFUSE to ever short a stock (which most hedge fund managers do). Something about unlimited risk with limited return doesn't appeal to me, no matter what direction people think the market is headed.

By adhering to my strategy of picking good companies, staying up on their issues, paying attention to management and profitability, and also not ignoring dividend paying stocks, I've been able to achieve those high returns at a lower than average risk, and be able to further diversify the fund by using the dividends to purchase additional stocks in other companies without selling any that I consider worth keeping (thus, not trying to chase one higher performer stock over one I don't think will do quite as well). That's where fund managers make their mistakes.

EDIT:In case it wasn't clear above, those performance figures for my simulated fund vs. the S&P 500 are over the EXACT same time period for both funds.