The point being, Gaza is just one front and just one of many places fairly short range missiles can be fired into Israel from. Because these missiles are cheap and easy to make,
given the hatreds, means that many will be deployed. But at the same time, the facts that these missiles lack much a descent guidance system means most of the damage will be
to farm fields and the like. They may land somewhere, but exactly where they land is random. Occasionally they may hit something more vital, but as of yet, the physical damage is less than the terror value. Because the damage radius, with conventional explosives is fairly small.
The problem for Israel, who has no lack of precision guided weapons is that by the time they get to the point where the missiles were fired from, those firing at Israel are long gone. So instead they are left punishing the innocent civilians who were not engaged in hostile actions even though, from the air, the damage Israel can do is very considerable.
But the metrics of this conflict have changed greatly since the mid 1990's when all the Plaestinians had were rocks and bottles to use against Israeli tanks. Because very effective anti tanks weapons are now filtering into the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah. As Israel found to its surprise when they tried to invade Southern Lebanon some 18 months ago.
Because the politics of intimidation only works under two conditions. (1) You can inflict so much damage that the opposition dares not attack you. (2) That you have the boots on the ground presence to receive the terrorists the intimidated population will turn over to prevent losing what they have. Which is the other problem, the residents have nothing of value to lose because Gaza is only marginally more habitual than the Sinai desert no one wants. So Israel is reduced to intimidation from the air, exactly the same tactic the terrorists are using.
But its not rocket science to predict that in another decade or so, the missiles will have longer ranges, perhaps some sort of guidance system, and that at least low tech biological and chemical weapons will start to be used as war heads. And Israel will need an exponentially increasing sized buffer zone as launching points all over will come to be used. Including perhaps using sea based launching points from small boats. And buffer zones simply too large for a nation of some six million people to maintain.
On the Arab streets, one would have to look under the belly of snakes to find any entity more popular than Israel. Around 96% either want Israel gone or pushed back to their pre 1967 war borders. The Arab street may accept Israel but not past its pre 1967 borders. And flush with oil money and with a tradition of giving to the needy, both Hamas and Hezbollah have funding. And while leaders of Arab States are reluctant to take on Israel, Hezbollah has captured the aspirations by finally striking a blow in Lebanon.
So at this point, at least in my mind, Israel is at a cross roads as its former 60 year strategy is now visibly becoming questionable even though Israeli military hegemony remains in tact. Israel can try to increase the intimidation which has visible failed in Lebanon, or they can finally go to the peace table while their position is as strong as it is. Which is the only thing that can ramp down the hatreds. And when I say go to the peace table, I mean with something less than we get everything Israel formerly demanded. Even Arifat came very close to inking a deal, but he absolutely would not sign away the right to return that still drives much of this conflict. As it is, if the Annapolis peace conference yields nothing, Abbas and Fatah will likely be so weakened that Hamas will end up being the democratically elected government of the West Bank also.
given the hatreds, means that many will be deployed. But at the same time, the facts that these missiles lack much a descent guidance system means most of the damage will be
to farm fields and the like. They may land somewhere, but exactly where they land is random. Occasionally they may hit something more vital, but as of yet, the physical damage is less than the terror value. Because the damage radius, with conventional explosives is fairly small.
The problem for Israel, who has no lack of precision guided weapons is that by the time they get to the point where the missiles were fired from, those firing at Israel are long gone. So instead they are left punishing the innocent civilians who were not engaged in hostile actions even though, from the air, the damage Israel can do is very considerable.
But the metrics of this conflict have changed greatly since the mid 1990's when all the Plaestinians had were rocks and bottles to use against Israeli tanks. Because very effective anti tanks weapons are now filtering into the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah. As Israel found to its surprise when they tried to invade Southern Lebanon some 18 months ago.
Because the politics of intimidation only works under two conditions. (1) You can inflict so much damage that the opposition dares not attack you. (2) That you have the boots on the ground presence to receive the terrorists the intimidated population will turn over to prevent losing what they have. Which is the other problem, the residents have nothing of value to lose because Gaza is only marginally more habitual than the Sinai desert no one wants. So Israel is reduced to intimidation from the air, exactly the same tactic the terrorists are using.
But its not rocket science to predict that in another decade or so, the missiles will have longer ranges, perhaps some sort of guidance system, and that at least low tech biological and chemical weapons will start to be used as war heads. And Israel will need an exponentially increasing sized buffer zone as launching points all over will come to be used. Including perhaps using sea based launching points from small boats. And buffer zones simply too large for a nation of some six million people to maintain.
On the Arab streets, one would have to look under the belly of snakes to find any entity more popular than Israel. Around 96% either want Israel gone or pushed back to their pre 1967 war borders. The Arab street may accept Israel but not past its pre 1967 borders. And flush with oil money and with a tradition of giving to the needy, both Hamas and Hezbollah have funding. And while leaders of Arab States are reluctant to take on Israel, Hezbollah has captured the aspirations by finally striking a blow in Lebanon.
So at this point, at least in my mind, Israel is at a cross roads as its former 60 year strategy is now visibly becoming questionable even though Israeli military hegemony remains in tact. Israel can try to increase the intimidation which has visible failed in Lebanon, or they can finally go to the peace table while their position is as strong as it is. Which is the only thing that can ramp down the hatreds. And when I say go to the peace table, I mean with something less than we get everything Israel formerly demanded. Even Arifat came very close to inking a deal, but he absolutely would not sign away the right to return that still drives much of this conflict. As it is, if the Annapolis peace conference yields nothing, Abbas and Fatah will likely be so weakened that Hamas will end up being the democratically elected government of the West Bank also.