Just as an aside, does anyone else get irritated with tests that exclude minimums?
I know right. I really liked that Xbitlabs included these measurements, but ever since Anton Shilov and some other key guys left, that site is nearly dead. At least we still have HardOCP. Since minimum frames sometimes capture a problem with a game engine or system glitch, I would prefer FCAT testing, especially for multi-GPU setups. But almost no one does that anymore......
We all knew that the 980ti was coming but it came in the worst way for AMD. This just cannot be good. There is no way it is good.
So if guys like us more or less had a good idea based on leaks that 980Ti would be a slightly cut-down GM200 6GB card where after-market 980Ti cards would tie or beat the Titan X, do you honestly think AMD was completely unaware of this for the last 3-4 months? You think they don't have anyone from their firm browsing AT, TechReport, TechPowerup, Videocardz, ChipHell forums? AMD had a very good idea where they needed to aim performance wise a long time ago.
The 980ti launched at $649 and it equal to the titan X. No one expected that outcome.
I expected it to be 95% as fast as the Titan X for $699. You can go read my posts. I was off by $50. I even got into an argument with some TX owners when I kept saying how 980Ti will make Titan X obsolete and a rip-off. I mentioned that after-market cards will come factory pre-overclocked and beat the Titan X. I guess you missed those posts. Other gamers in this thread and other threads also fully expected 980TI to be 90-95% as fast as the Titan X and for after-market cards to beat the Titan X.
I even sighted 780Ghz review charts from TPU weeks before the 980Ti launched. To say that "no one expected" 980Ti to tie a Titan X is not correct.
I mean, sure we thought aftermarket 980ti's would make the titanX look bad. But, I dont think many expected the reference model to only be 2-4% slower. No one was betting on it being 649, it was a nice dream but no one truly expected this outcome.
You are right. We didn't expect a reference 980Ti to be 2-4% within Titan X. For all intents and purposes though 2-4% or 95% as fast as the Titan X are identical in terms of gaming experience without measuring benches. Many did expect after-market 980Ti to beat the Titan X. Since a lot of gamers on our forums buy open air cooled after-market card, I am not even sure how the reference card's performance matters that much. Once Asus DCUII, MSI Lightning, Galax HOF, Gigabyte Windforce 3X, EVGA Classified cards come out, that's when the real pressure on AMD will fall since then we are talking 15-20% faster clocked 980Ti cards. At that point I agree with you that if Fiji XT only beats the 980Ti by 5-10%, it will be in trouble unless after-market version of Fiji also raise clocks 15%, or Fiji XT can overclock 15-20% in the hands of users. 7970/R9 290X could all overclock at least 15%.
Surely AMD had their whole fiji attack based around the 1000$ titan X.
How do we know that? That random $850 MSRP rumour? WCCFtech said 980Ti would cost $799 and it came out $150 less. That $850 rumour could just be another BS they pulled out of thin air.
We don't know at all if Fiji XT was going to be a $549 card, $649, $699, $749, $849. Only AMD knows.
The delay, they missed the opportunity to really make a the splash they could have. I think this is a devastation. A massive massive blow. I am not sure if others see it, but there is no way around it. This is gonna hurt for AMD.
I am impressed by 980Ti but it's not enough to make statements like the ones you are making. On paper a 4096 shader Fiji XT is faster than the 980Ti at 4K.
TPU has it
39% faster at 1440P and
37% at 4K against the 290X.
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/NVIDIA/GeForce_GTX_980_Ti/31.html
Is that good? Yes. Does that mean a total devastation to AMD? I don't think so. If Fiji XT is a 4096 shader, 256 TMU, 64 Tonga ROP card with 1.05Ghz clock it should beat the 980Ti at both of those resolutions. We have 3 weeks to find out.
Who is really expecting a fiji that is 20% faster than the titanx? I think that is a just way to optimistic. I believe fiji might offer titanX performance but with a water cooler. The whole FURY strategy, their premium brand.............it was completely crushed by the launching of the 980ti. The thunder, i am really thinking....it has been stripped away.
LOL, what are you talking about. If Fiji XT beats 980Ti by 10% at $699, a lot of gamers will consider that a win. I'll go on to say that winning by a 7-8% at 4K garnered the 980 a ton of praise over the 290X but now you are saying the Fiji is doomed without contemplating that it if beats the Titan X by 5%, 980Ti becomes like the 290X performance wise at 4K.
Look at how well R9 290X is aging today. It's faster than both the 780Ti and 970 at 4K and 980 is barely faster!
290X is only a 2816 shader card. What happens if AMD releases a 1.05Ghz 4096 shader card? 980Ti is beaten. Alternatively, double the performance of an R9 280X puts
Fiji XT at
106% on this chart.
Nvidia had been sitting on the 980ti and dropped it anyway.
Ya so instead of diverting all the attention to AMD, why aren't you discussing how NV had 980Ti chips manufactured on the 36th week of 2014 but they still kept milking 980 at $550 and sitting on thousands of GM200-310 dies?
I honestly think that Nvidia going ahead and launching says the opposite. That they arent worried about fiji at all. If they really really were afraid, they would have held back and made a reactionary move. We know that nvidia could extract 20% more performance out of the gm200. They could create a 300watt monster. I dont think they are afraid at all.
I believe this is a huge punch in the gut. I just wonder why AMD put off fiji for soo long. Were they having issues? What was/is the problem. Were they the ones afraid and waiting for nvidia to launch first?
We won't know the answers to most of these questions until Fiji cards launch.
With water cooling, AMD can probably surpass the 980ti performance. But at what cost? I think it will take a lot. And by that time, there will be vendor overclocked 980ti models that raise the bar another 20%. I just do not see how this ends well for fiji. It is worst case scenario if you ask me.
There are all kinds of other possibilities. I'll mention the first 1 - You are right and AMD flops this generation, most R9 300 cards and re-brands and Fiji XT is barely faster than 980.
There are other possibilities. AMD goes all in into the mid-range and high-end segments.
1. Fully unlocked Tonga smokes 960. This should be easy considering today since a 960 can't beat a 285. That means Full 285 >>> 960. If AMD adds HVEC for 4K decoding/encoding and HDMI 2.0, that's about game over for the 960 against a 2048 shader 4GB 285.
2. Revised R9 290 beats 970. This should be easy since today a 290X > 970 at higher resolutions. Actually even a faster clocked after-market R9 290 could give a GTX970 a run for the $. If AMD managed to reduce the power usage and performance is roughly equal, I would take a 4GB card over a 3.5GB card. That's another win.
3. Revised 290X comes very close to a 980 for $100 less. That should be very easy considering how little of a lead 980 has left today.
4. Fiji PRO at $499 smokes 980 by 15%. 980 would have no response against a 3500 shader Fiji Pro with HBM. Alternatively, AMD positions Fiji PRO at $549 and it offers 95% of 980Ti's performance. That would make 980Ti and Fiji Pro competitive with each other on the price/performance curve but either way Fiji Pro should smash 980 into the ground.
I think even though NV dropped 980's price to $499, it'll need to drop it another $50 after AMD's launch.
5. AMD launches an air-cooled Fiji XT with Titan X performance for $599. That would undercut the 980Ti. However, at that point I would probably recommend the 980Ti for its 6GB of VRAM and 20% overclocking headroom unless Fiji XT overclocks 15-20% on air as well.
6. We still don't know how fast a water-cooled Fiji XT might be. What if it can run at 1250mhz at 75C? What if it's a dud overclocker that can't overclock even 5%?
Here is a more interesting question to you since you are so gloom and doom on AMD :
>>> When since HD4800 series did AMD ever launch a new generation of GPUs that was less competitive than NV's in price/performance? I can't recall. Every generation since HD4800 AMD leads on price/performance in almost all segments. If Fiji cards can't compete with 980/980Ti/Titan X, well AMD will have to adjust their prices accordingly. It's that simple. Whenever few times NV has the lead on price/performance with 670/680, AMD makes quick adjustments.