Which is an unknown. So to gather any information from 290X vs 780 Ti is pointless.
...
Keep telling yourself that. AMD was able to create a chip that's both better at compute and gaming with a die size 78% of NV's, while managing to pack more VRAM (4GB vs. 3GB) but barely using more power than a 780Ti.
Historically speaking AMD has been able to compete with NV using much smaller die sizes. NV's performance advantage on the high end was never commensurate with the gargantuan increase in die size they had vs. AMD's smaller chips. NV would barely net 15-18% more performance despite having 30-50% larger die sizes. Today a 980 is < 10% faster than an R9 290X at 4K despite the latter being just 10% larger. But 980 is a completely new architecture and generation. That means if AMD was able to create a 600mm2 3rd generation GCN chip with HBM, it's a wide chip - meaning it has a lot more shaders, textures and geometry performance compared to the R9 290X. Right now 980 mainly looks so good because 290X was designed so long ago as a competitor to 780Ti not to a 980. AMD obviously has faced delays with Fiji XT but 290X was never designed to be competing with Maxwell's 980 cards. The fact that it isn't that far behind is remarkable if anything.
In case you need a refresher, a 438mm2 R9 290X Hawaii vs. 352mm2 original 925mhz Tahiti gave AMD a
49% increase in GPU power at 4K (GPU limited resolution gives us a good idea of the true capabilities of Hawaii chip's resources).
Digging deeper, R9 290X vs. HD7970 is:
37.5% more shaders
37.5% more TMUs
100% more ROPs
50% wider memory controller
4X the amount of Asynchronous Compute Engines (ACEs increased from 2 to 8)
True Audio DSP block
^^^ AMD accomplished all of that with an increase in die size of only 24.4%. That's nothing short of incredible.
NV needed to increase the die size 91% to move from 294mm2 680 to 561mm2 GTX780Ti to hit their flagship GPU performance targets. And yet, 780Ti doesn't even beat the 290X today at high resolution gaming. Even though hardly anyone today would call Big Daddy Kepler an engineering dud/failure but compared to Hawaii it really is now that the dust has settled. How the hell did NV manage to create a 561mm2 chip that loses both in compute
and gaming to a 438mm2 chip, while barely using less power? That's straight up engineering failure right there.
Kepler was a marketing success above all! Costs more to manufacture a 561mm2 die than a 438mm2 die but the chip is slower. In engineering, I am pretty sure that would be called a dud. D:
A hypothetical 575mm2 Fiji XT would be 31.2% larger than Hawaii XT. AMD doesn't even need to change the amount of ROPs from 64 because they can increase pixel fill-rate throughput 50% alone using Tonga ROPs with 40% memory bandwidth compression.
That means 45% increases in TMUs and shaders are not out of the question. Then we have doubling of geometry performance courtesy of Tonga's architecture as a foundation. If the actual die size is 600mm2, that gives the chip even more potential. The main counter-argument against this is to reduce leakage, AMD reduced transistor density significantly on a 575-600mm2 chip compared to 438mm2 R9 290X. That would explain why a 575-600mm2 chip isn't going to be a 5632 shader part or anything like that.
Unless AMD messed up badly, 45% increase in performance over 290X should be guaranteed at 4K,
which already puts Fiji XT faster than the 980Ti. This includes 0 other tricks AMD might have gained with GCN 3 architecture (or 1.3 if we want to call it that).
The biggest thing holding back Fiji XT are probably going to be drivers and power usage. If it wasn't for perf/watt marketing movement, AMD could have clocked the card another 15% more while actually using 375-400W of power since the AIO CLC would be more than capable of handling it. Of course then NV marketing would have swooped in and ripped the card apart for being a perf/watt failure. Hopefully that means there is 15-20% overclocking headroom left even at the expense of 150W of extra power usage.
Or Fiji is like GM200 and has way less DP performance. Then with the huge die one could easily see how it could beat 980TI by a huge margin. That's my hope. Could not care less about DP.
That's true. In an ideal world, if AMD ditched DP like GM200 and made a 600mm2 HBM1 chip with AIO CLC, then chances are Titan X would lose the performance crown.