So your comparison is flawed from the very beggining.
I think you guys are not understanding me. I'll try it again. For simplicity's sake, let's even assume that R9 290X = GTX780Ti.
561mm2 780Ti -> Kepler = 100%
438mm2 R9 290X -> GCN 1.1 = 100%
Now, if NV were to simply produce a 561mm2 Maxwell, they'd get a 35% increase in IPC courtesy of the new architecture. Let's say that chip is 45% faster than 780Ti from a node shrink, add another 35% for IPC. NV would then end up with a chip that's 100% x 1.45 x 1.35 = 96% faster than 780Ti!
If AMD only makes a 438mm2 die, with a die shrink, let's assume they also get a 45% faster chip than R9 290X. How are they going to make up the 35% IPC deficit Maxwell's architecture brings? They either have to make a much larger chip than 438mm2 and/or GCN 2.0 will need to have a
substantial increase in IPC to just match Maxwell's 35%.
There are 2 things that are still in favour of NV next round even if AMD gets GCN 2.0 to somehow match Maxwell's 35% IPC increase:
1) 780Ti OC is 20% faster than R9 290X OC. (
HardOCP) Based on how much more dense the transistors are inside AMD chips, they produce a lot more heat which is why AMD's 438mm2 chip consumes similar amounts of power to NV's 561mm2. Therefore, if AMD makes a chip larger than 438mm2 and clocks it high, it should have less overclocking headroom than NV's.
All of NV's flagship large monolith chips overclocked better than AMD's equivalent ---> NV's 8800GTX, 285, 480, 580, 780 all overclocked far better on air than 3870, 4870/4890, 5870, 6970 and R9 290X. That's a track record if you ask me. I bet Maxwell's flagship chip will also overclock better than AMD's 20nm.
2) Maxwell has a 2x performance/watt increase on 28nm. That implies on 20nm, it could exceed that.
I don't see how AMD can compete next round unless they have 20-30 Mantle games, seriously improve their drivers, GCN 2.0 brings a 20-25% increase in IPC and they also make a 480-500mm2 die....or unless NV completely screws up Maxwell and delivers a 480mm2 Maxwell as flagship.