Well played AMD

[strummer]

Looking at the prices of the processors dropping, there is no way I'm not going to buy a dual core AMD. It is obvious that AMD is trying to mute the impact of Conroe's release by putting a real premium on Conroe's speed advantage, making potential buyers be willing to pony up that premium for the extra speed. Good for us consumers in the short run, I just hope that it is good for us in the long run as well. AMD is trying to protect market share. Probably not a good time to buy AMD stock.

The question is whether I go 939 or AM2. It is not a question of AMD or Conroe, since I am a fan of the underdog and realize just how much we need AMD to be a player in the market. I'm willing to take something that is 10% or 15% slower to essentially do my part in keeping AMD viable.

So I humbly ask the informed out there to give me your opinions regarding 939 vs. AM2. My last build was with an Opteron 146 that I got a deal on from Monarch back in the winter - so I am a little out of the loop build-wise.

 

[Unkno]

if you already have DDR ram and a 939 mobo, then you might as well stay with 939......if not, i dont see a reason why you should get 939 since AM2 will be the future (unless you want to save money, then buy 939)

 

[gramboh]

How is there a premium for Core 2 Duo speed advantage? What chip does AMD have in the $300-350US range that is faster than an E6600? I agree though, great time for consumers, good deals from both companies, no longer have to shell out $500 for a decent dual core chip.

 

[BlueWeasel]

From a performance standpoint, there's not much difference between s939 and AM2. If you want to use your current DDR, then just stick with 939 and pop in a cheap X2.

 

[Munky]

If it's a new build, then go with AM2. Not because it offers any tangible performance advantage over s939, but because DDR2 mem will be better priced compared to DDR, which is on its way to extinction. Also, since AMD is currently focusing on AM2, you might find lower prices on AM2 cpus than comparable s939 cpu's. And lastly, there's a chance that AM2 will be compatible with K8L, although I wouldnt bet on it.

 

[agent2099]

As munky said, if you are building from scratch you will probably find better prices for AM2 and DDR2 vs 939+DDR.

 

[strummer]

Thanks for the replies - I will probably go with AM2.

 

[Viditor]

Probably not a good time to buy AMD stock

It's probably the best time...the whole idea is to buy when they're down and sell when they're riding high.

 

[Henny]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Probably not a good time to buy AMD stock

It's probably the best time...the whole idea is to buy when they're down and sell when they're riding high.

You're right but AMD's stock price could be in store for a major drop.

- Their margins will evaporate while they drop price to try and compete with Intel
- They're late with 65 nm
- They have ambitious Fab plans (F30 retrofit, NY Fab, etc) which will require billion's worth of capital spending.
- The ATI merger sounds good on paper but the devil's in the details. The are not experienced with successful aquisitions and the revenue stream from ATI will quickly dry up. How successful will they be at integrating the two companies (it's far from trivial).

I won't go long on AMD until I see evidence of some light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[Rock Hydra]

Well played in one area, though investors are not happy with the ATI acquisition right now and it's showing in stock prices.

 

[996GT2]

Another reason to go AM2 is for the overclocking; it seems that the AM2 chips so far have been very good overclockers. Not saying that 939 is bad at all, but AM2 seems to be a bit more consistent.

 

[dainthomas]

Originally posted by: gramboh
How is there a premium for Core 2 Duo speed advantage?

You'll have to drop ~$200 extra to pick up a Conroe over the base X2. Gamers would probably be better off putting this toward their graphics card(s).

 

[996GT2]

Originally posted by: dainthomas

Originally posted by: gramboh
How is there a premium for Core 2 Duo speed advantage?

You'll have to drop ~$200 extra to pick up a Conroe over the base X2. Gamers would probably be better off putting this toward their graphics card(s).

The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $100 more than a 3800+. But the performance of even the base 1.83 GHz Conroe is almost at the level of the Athlon X2 5000+.

 

[dainthomas]

Originally posted by: 996GT2

Originally posted by: dainthomas

Originally posted by: gramboh
How is there a premium for Core 2 Duo speed advantage?

You'll have to drop ~$200 extra to pick up a Conroe over the base X2. Gamers would probably be better off putting this toward their graphics card(s).

The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $100 more than a 3800+. But the performance of even the base 1.83 GHz Conroe is almost at the level of the Athlon X2 5000+.

I was counting mobo also. You can pick up a cheapo NF4 for alot less than a Conroe compatible board (now at least).

 

[dandragonrage]

Originally posted by: 996GT2
The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $30 more than a 3800+.

Fixed

And stop spreading FUD about Conroe motherboards. ASRock's ConroeXFire is like $80 and will probably come down.

 

[jlbenedict]

Originally posted by: dandragonrage

Originally posted by: 996GT2
The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $30 more than a 3800+.

Fixed

And stop spreading FUD about Conroe motherboards. ASRock's ConroeXFire is like $80 and will probably come down.

Using a superior kick @$$ processor in an ASSROCK motherboard is pure FUD

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Henny

Originally posted by: Viditor

Probably not a good time to buy AMD stock

It's probably the best time...the whole idea is to buy when they're down and sell when they're riding high.

You're right but AMD's stock price could be in store for a major drop.

- Their margins will evaporate while they drop price to try and compete with Intel
- They're late with 65 nm
- They have ambitious Fab plans (F30 retrofit, NY Fab, etc) which will require billion's worth of capital spending.
- The ATI merger sounds good on paper but the devil's in the details. The are not experienced with successful aquisitions and the revenue stream from ATI will quickly dry up. How successful will they be at integrating the two companies (it's far from trivial).

I won't go long on AMD until I see evidence of some light at the end of the tunnel.

You see, this is the problem...people see the fantastic benchmarks on C2D and assume that it's all over...

1. Even at the most optimistic reality-based estimates, C2D won't have enough volume to hurt AMD's sales until next year at least.
2. All AMD has to do is change the mix for desktop parts towards the mid to low end, this will continue (or at the least maintain) their profitability there...of course server parts (by far the most profitable) will continue to grow as Woodcrest doesn't even effect their 4P system sales and still has several months to go for qualification of their platforms. (AMD should easily attain their goal of 30% marketshare in servers by the end of the year).
3. There are strong suggestions that Dell is adopting AMD across it's whole line, and that is a previously untapped market for AMD (in servers, mobiles, and desktops). AMD is now an excellent match for Dell's need to expand into greater low cost/high profit systems.
4. How are they late with 65nm?
5. As to Fabs, I guess you hadn't heard that NY is giving them $900 million on the Fab there, and that the EU is helping to finance the Refit of Fab 30? Their Cap Ex for next year is only $2.5 billion total, and I assume that includes changes for ATI as well...

I can understand not wanting to invest, but by the time your objections are proven out, the stock will be back in the high 40s (at least).

 

[dandragonrage]

Originally posted by: jlbenedict

Originally posted by: dandragonrage

Originally posted by: 996GT2
The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $30 more than a 3800+.

Fixed

And stop spreading FUD about Conroe motherboards. ASRock's ConroeXFire is like $80 and will probably come down.

Using a superior kick @$$ processor in an ASSROCK motherboard is pure FUD

It'll still outperform any AM2 combo

 

[JonnyBlaze]

Originally posted by: jlbenedict

Originally posted by: dandragonrage

Originally posted by: 996GT2
The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $30 more than a 3800+.

Fixed

And stop spreading FUD about Conroe motherboards. ASRock's ConroeXFire is like $80 and will probably come down.

Using a superior kick @$$ processor in an ASSROCK motherboard is pure FUD

looks like a fine board to me

http://www.vr-zone.com/?i=3779&s=6

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: dandragonrage

Originally posted by: 996GT2
The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $30 more than a 3800+.

Fixed

And stop spreading FUD about Conroe motherboards. ASRock's ConroeXFire is like $80 and will probably come down.

You mean the one with the ATI (AMD) chips?...cool!
The cheapest I've seen it at (at least from any place reputable) is $95 at Monarch.

Also, I believe the E6400 (I think the E6300 is being cancelled) is to be released in Q4...this makes sense as it would cut into the Pentium D sales quite hard.

 

[yacoub]

Originally posted by: Viditor
Also, I believe the E6400 (I think the E6300 is being cancelled) is to be released in Q4...this makes sense as it would cut into the Pentium D sales quite hard.

LINKS PLEASE. I don't believe they'd kill the chip that would sell the best for them, let alone delay the one above it simply because their old chips aren't selling well (and obviously at this point everyone will wait for the C2Ds and buy cheap X2 AMDs in the meantime.

 

[meksta]

that asrock board is based on the 945p chipset. I guess they were one of the few that had implemented VRM11 on those boards. Not sure about DDR2-800 support though. Asrock also has a board based on the VIA chipset that supports conroe....(with ddr and agp also! lol)

truth is at this time there isn't a mainstream conroe mobo. You either have cheap (legacy chipsets) for $60-80, expensive (based on p965) for $130-150 or super expensive for > $200 (975x ones). I think/hope p965 boards will drop in price to the $100 range.

 

[coldpower27]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: dandragonrage

Originally posted by: 996GT2
The base Conroe has a retail price of around $180, and even with some price gouging I can't imagine it costing more than $30 more than a 3800+.

Fixed

And stop spreading FUD about Conroe motherboards. ASRock's ConroeXFire is like $80 and will probably come down.

You mean the one with the ATI (AMD) chips?...cool!
The cheapest I've seen it at (at least from any place reputable) is $95 at Monarch.

Also, I believe the E6400 (I think the E6300 is being cancelled) is to be released in Q4...this makes sense as it would cut into the Pentium D sales quite hard.

Viditor, unless you can provide a link to back this information up regarding the Core 2 Duo, being cancell for the E6300, please don't misinform anyone else.

As well as has been said yes the ASRock mobo is based on the 945P chipset, which just needs to be updated with the VRM11 voltage regulator to support Core 2 Duo, this is likely the lowest chipset for Core 2 Duo with 1066FSB support.

 

[dandragonrage]

Originally posted by: Viditor
The cheapest I've seen it at (at least from any place reputable) is $95 at Monarch.

eWiz

 

[strummer]

Originally posted by: Rock Hydra
Well played in one area, though investors are not happy with the ATI acquisition right now and it's showing in stock prices.

Intuitively, I can see investor concerns with the ATI move. They are already battling Intel for the technological edge in the desktop chip market, now they will also have to battle nVidia in another market. There is just so much energy that can be expended by a company.

Does the ATI move provide any synergy? I don't see it - it is a move away from their core business - the server market, where their presence is strongest. Is the move an act of desperation by AMD to diversify and perhaps change focus from competing with Intel in the desktop market to competing with nVidia et al, an arena where roles will be reversed and they will be the 500-pound gorilla in the room for a change. I don't know.

Contrary to what someone said upthread, now is not the time to buy AMD stock. The price cuts in for their desktop processors may be somewhat discounted already, but a price war is never good for a company. There will be even greater downward pressure on prices, while the cost of goods sold will, of course, face upward pressure. It is rather obvious - the same processor that was selling for $390 last week is now selling for $155. The only way to offset that is to capture more marketshare. The price cuts have to be part of a long term strategy to mute the impact of Intel's technological lead (at least in desktops). AMD really should have gotten more out of the really significant edge they held over Intel with K8. The Intel/Dell partnership really paid huge dividends to Intel with regards to that. Intel has all the tools that AMD was lacking to really exploit their latest competitive advantage. The thing Intel needs to really exploit the situation is for software to become more demanding, so that consumers will see a point of paying the premium for an Intel chip.

I said "well done" by AMD because they did what they had to do. It is medicine that they had to take to keep themselves being a viable long term player. BTW - in my opinion, now is not the time to buy Intel stock, either. Their competitive advantage with Conroe is of great importance to gaming enthusiasts, yet little importance to the general computer buying population (at least right now). There is rarely only one side injured in a war, and this price war between AMD/Intel is not going to be an exception to that rule.