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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I sympathize with Trump supporters whose jobs have been outsourced or taken by foreigners, but they are fighting a war that has already been lost. I think there was a time for that battle in the 70s and 80s, but with automation it's a moot point. Even Chinese are automating away their factory workforce as quickly as they can, and if they can't compete, Americans have no chance. It simply costs more to keep an American worker alive than a robot costs to do same job. Even if we had slave labor, we still couldn't compete in the long run. The only way we'll have a workforce that is able to compete with automation is universal basic income and universal single payer health coverage, along with an elimination of minimum wage to allow cost to employer to fall to parity with automation. This way, an employee will cost an employer less than keeping such an employee alive costs, because the government will be taking care of basic needs, and employment will be for disposable income.
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,242
86
I sympathize with Trump supporters whose jobs have been outsourced or taken by foreigners, but they are fighting a war that has already been lost. I think there was a time for that battle in the 70s and 80s, but with automation it's a moot point. Even Chinese are automating away their factory workforce as quickly as they can, and if they can't compete, Americans have no chance. It simply costs more to keep an American worker alive than a robot costs to do same job. Even if we had slave labor, we still couldn't compete in the long run. The only way we'll have a workforce that is able to compete with automation is universal basic income and universal single payer health coverage, along with an elimination of minimum wage to allow cost to employer to fall to parity with automation. This way, an employee will cost an employer less than keeping such an employee alive costs, because the government will be taking care of basic needs, and employment will be for disposable income.

You also only have to contrast the tightly planned and integrated "miracle" economies of the east to see where america goes wrong in both those departments, as a direct consequence of conservative laissez faire ideology.
 

Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,044
4,804
136
I sympathize with Trump supporters whose jobs have been outsourced or taken by foreigners, but they are fighting a war that has already been lost. I think there was a time for that battle in the 70s and 80s, but with automation it's a moot point. Even Chinese are automating away their factory workforce as quickly as they can, and if they can't compete, Americans have no chance. It simply costs more to keep an American worker alive than a robot costs to do same job. Even if we had slave labor, we still couldn't compete in the long run. The only way we'll have a workforce that is able to compete with automation is universal basic income and universal single payer health coverage, along with an elimination of minimum wage to allow cost to employer to fall to parity with automation. This way, an employee will cost an employer less than keeping such an employee alive costs, because the government will be taking care of basic needs, and employment will be for disposable income.
No thank you to your socialism suggestion.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
136
I have to credit this guy, who is a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, not exactly a hornets nest of Socialism.
https://youtu.be/SStZxI1rH-A?t=1836

Thank you for sharing. That's one heck of a conversation. I think I needed that man's wisdom and approach to discuss basic income with "small government" types. He supports it for those very reasons and logically lays out how/what/where/why. It was thoroughly insightful.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Thank you for sharing. That's one heck of a conversation. I think I needed that man's wisdom and approach to discuss basic income with "small government" types. He supports it for those very reasons and logically lays out how/what/where/why. It was thoroughly insightful.
He is not very popular now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/us/middlebury-college-charles-murray-bell-curve-protest.html
I haven't read the book, so I can't comment on his other views wrt genetic differences, but he makes some good points in the video about automation and the future.
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,242
86
He is not very popular now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/us/middlebury-college-charles-murray-bell-curve-protest.html
I haven't read the book, so I can't comment on his other views wrt genetic differences, but he makes some good points in the video about automation and the future.

I read the book when it came out, and it basically dismisses the flynn effect which rather puts a damper on the central thesis that iq measures g. There's a certain irony today when his conclusions are most popular with the low edu/iq trump crowd, which is probably the opposite of what he was hoping for. And that's generally the case for these conservative dinosaurs characteristically stuck on the wrong side of history with respect to liberalization of the academic class.

I also watched a few min of that youtube link, and he draws a clear distinction between trade/movement of goods vs services (meaning people). The EU and such have basically made that moot, reactionary brexiteers notwithstanding. So he's similarly stuck fighting that culture war against multi-culturalism, which he's not going to be on the right side of history for either.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
136
He is not very popular now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/us/middlebury-college-charles-murray-bell-curve-protest.html
I haven't read the book, so I can't comment on his other views wrt genetic differences, but he makes some good points in the video about automation and the future.

Yeah, you did not share that video for the bell curve segment. Neither did I praise it for that. Though I will readily say anything so clear and candid is refreshing from the talking point babble of news media. And anyone who is literally arguing FOR basic income and single payer is probably not hating on those who would benefit from it the most.

He's coming from a place that is familiar, I know conservatives whose ego can best be described as "bootstraps", dignity of working male, of intact family structures, etc. He argues for progressive economics from a conservative point of view and if our country is to have those things it must cross the aisle and appeal to a broad voting base. Those who voted for Trump would kill for this guy's message for a better future.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
This one is pretty good too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urXPwjT5s1s
I am not a big fan of Kristol, since he is in large part responsible for the mess we are in now on so many levels. Scorched earth obstructionism is originally his strategy going back to Hillarycare. And of course he is a PNAC neocon.
But he does invite interesting people to talk and asks interesting questions.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
136
"Next gen" automation is moving from prototyping to field deployment.

Burger-flipping robot replaces humans on first day at work
The robotic kitchen assistant, which its makers say can be installed in just five minutes, is the brainchild of Miso Robotics.
“Much like self-driving vehicles, our system continuously learns from its experiences to improve over time”

I'd say the video in that article can leave an impression of its potential and future applications. It is not just designed to flip burgers.
This new wave of labor replacement has only just begun.
 

jmagg

Platinum Member
Nov 21, 2001
2,059
386
126
I wonder when automation and basic income takes over, who will have the funds to buy the automated goods, besides the dirty capitalists themselves.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
136
I wonder when automation and basic income takes over, who will have the funds to buy the automated goods, besides the dirty capitalists themselves.
The point of basic income is people have those funds. It solves the very issue you speak of.
Moreover, that income is just a portion of the economy. The rest will remain in coexisting "free market" / Capitalist endeavors.

This is a slide into automation as more labor and more jobs are lost to it. We don't start with 50% or greater unemployment. So discussions need to clarify at which point on that scale they want clarification on. Though to be truthful, I've no clue what we'll employ people for when the transition is complete. We need to get closer to the event horizon to be able to peer through to see what awaits us on the other side. All we can really say is current trends are hurling us towards certain... eventualities. The rest is pure speculation.

But for the near future, Capitalism with a proper safety net seems like the safest bet. Something that can cope with the decline of labor.
 

jmagg

Platinum Member
Nov 21, 2001
2,059
386
126
What generates the funds for the basic income? Basic income covers food, shelter, *and an i phone? Capitalism loves inflation. It seems total automation would seriously deflate the dollar, eventually making the rich poorer. It also seems the better business plan would be to take a small hit at the top and pay a living wage, and keep the ball rolling.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
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What generates the funds for the basic income?

Current taxes are large enough to cover that cost. As automation increases we'll need to ensure production remains taxed.
It is profit from the sales of products that fuels the economy, as true in the future as it is today. We just have to keep the value of that GDP moving through the economy, through our consumers.
 

jmagg

Platinum Member
Nov 21, 2001
2,059
386
126
IMO, jobs and a living wage are the answers to poverty. Most humans need to be productive to be happy in the long run. I realize it can take generations of work ethic and sound parenting to make it happen.
 
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Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,044
4,804
136
IMO, jobs and a living wage are the answers to poverty. Most humans need to be productive to be happy in the long run. I realize it can take generations of work ethic and sound parenting to make it happen.
Not everybody subscribes to Maslow's hierarchy of needs and people who are not productive shouldn't prosper off the hard work of those who are.
 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
Not everybody subscribes to Maslow's hierarchy of needs and people who are not productive shouldn't prosper off the hard work of those who are.

Income is arbitrary, especially in the public sector or upper management. Then we have the issue of money making money via passive income through -- get this -- others' hard work!
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
Those paths are blocked and mostly end in disaster.
It's not that outcomes can or should be made equal, it's that the worst outcome should lighten up.
And yes, even people that do everything right in the world still don't "make it". World's a big place... !@#$ happens.

Besides, this whole topic is predicated on the loss of value. You don't "fix" that, you cope with it.
Doubling down on mythical bootstraps is the same thing as "let them eat cake". It also ends the same way.

What blocks the path of someone to become more than a frycook? I agree that it is difficult for a low-quality worker to pull themselves up, but that's largely due to intelligence being primarily genetic and upbringing also being passed down generationally. That's why we need massive birth control and eugenics programs, not UBI.

Well, we could release them from the social contract and see if those walls on gated communities are high enough.

They'll be high enough.

 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,522
759
146
What blocks the path of someone to become more than a frycook? I agree that it is difficult for a low-quality worker to pull themselves up, but that's largely due to intelligence being primarily genetic and upbringing also being passed down generationally.

There isn't enough seats for all qualified nursing applicants, despite the ridiculous amount of money that goes into education. A nurse here starts at $85k because of it. That's an example of a barrier. Then we have the problem of distribution of wealth and income. These can be driven to a more equitable ratio without harming productivity.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,582
7,645
136
What blocks the path of someone to become more than a frycook?

Job offers without the absurd qualification of spending 30-50k at college? I mean maybe it's a matter of location... but there's a LARGE segment of America that doesn't have !@#$. Brought on in no small part by stagnant wages and rising costs. People don't make half what they did 40 years ago.

And don't kid yourself... flipping burgers is just the first application. Everything goes by the end of this story.
The world is about to be revolutionized in a big way. Bigger than Agrarian to Industrial.
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
There isn't enough seats for all qualified nursing applicants, despite the ridiculous amount of money that goes into education. A nurse here starts at $85k because of it. That's an example of a barrier. Then we have the problem of distribution of wealth and income. These can be driven to a more equitable ratio without harming productivity.

So the solution is to keep a permanent underclass of people receiving only the minimal income required for life, therefore by definition being staying in poverty and at risk of having more children who in turn cannot get a job outside of the most menial of labor.

Jobs have been replaced by computers and machines for over a century and it has never affected unemployment rates. People can and generally will find new lines of work if allowed to (e.g. if living in a nation where welfare doesn't pay more than employment).
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
Job offers without the absurd qualification of spending 30-50k at college? I mean maybe it's a matter of location... but there's a LARGE segment of America that doesn't have !@#$. Brought on in no small part by stagnant wages and rising costs. People don't make half what they did 40 years ago.

And don't kid yourself... flipping burgers is just the first application. Everything goes by the end of this story.
The world is about to be revolutionized in a big way. Bigger than Agrarian to Industrial.

College is virtually free for those that are poor and can be accepted into a decent public college. Of course, that requires that one doesn't drop out of high school and sleep through algebra.

Wages haven't fallen that much actually, it's mostly just that benefits increasingly eat a bigger chunk of wages. We're talking more like 10% lower, and considering that there are billions of non-Americans that would love to compete with us, those at risk should have been counting their lucky stars decades ago.

 
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