What has a greater odd?

[SSSnail]

Assuming you aren't already - winning the lottery jackpot, or collecting Social Security? :hmm:

 

[mnewsham]

At my age? Winning the lottery probably...

 

[Saint Nick]

Good point, better go out and buy $1,000 worth of tickets right now.

 

[xBiffx]

Good point, better go out and buy $1,000 worth of tickets right now.

Doesn't change your odds of winning. Gamblers fallacy.

 

[Capt Caveman]

Doesn't change your odds of winning. Gamblers fallacy.

Sure does.

 

[Saint Nick]

Doesn't change your odds of winning. Gamblers fallacy.

:wub:

 

[homercles337]

<----- P&N.

 

[xBiffx]

Sure does.

Nope. The odds of winning are the same. Each ticket is independent of the other. Doesn't matter how many you buy.

Edit: All you have done by buying more is increase your chances of winning but the odds of a ticket winning are still the same.

Look at it this way. If you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning but you buy two tickets, your odds are not 2 in 4. The odds are still 1 in 4 in two separate chances. By buying two tickets you have not changed the odds that a ticket will win.

 

[SSSnail]

Nope. The odds of winning are the same. Each ticket is independent of the other. Doesn't matter how many you buy.

You're wrong! While the odds of winning remain the same for each ticket, your odds of winning increases as more tickets you own, until you reach 100%, by owning all possible combinations.

 

[xBiffx]

You're wrong! While the odds of winning remain the same for each ticket, your odds of winning increases as more tickets you own, until you reach 100%, by owning all possible combinations.

You haven't changed the odds at all. You are still only going to win with 1 combination of winning numbers. Your chances of winning have gone way up but the odds that a ticket has the right combination is still the same. Each ticket is an independent event.

Edit: You are thinking that the number of tickets matters here. It doesn't. The numbers that get chosen is all that matters. There is only one winning combination and that is how the odds are calculated in this instance. By combining the probabilities of each number showing up in the sequence. The number of tickets isn't part of this calculation at all.

 

[DominionSeraph]

You haven't changed the odds at all. You are still only going to win with 1 combination of winning numbers. Your chances of winning have gone way up but the odds that a ticket has the right combination is still the same. Each ticket is an independent event.

Each ticket is independent but they all apply to ONE person! If any one is the winner then the person is a winner.

I have d6 die.
One roll, and I win on roll of "1"
I have a 1 in 6 chance of winning.

I have a d6 die.
One roll, and I win on a roll of "1", "2", "3", "4", "5," or "6".
Only one is going to come up but I have a 6 in 6 chance of winning. The chance to win is not split among 6 people -- the totality is held by one: Me.

Let's flip a coin!

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<tails>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<tails>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<tails>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<tails>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

"Heads I win, tails I win."
<heads>
Well look at that. I win.

A 50/50 throw doesn't necessarily mean a 50/50 chance of winning, now does it?

 

[HardcoreRobot]

your initial claim:

Doesn't change your odds of winning. Gamblers fallacy.

and now you say:

You haven't changed the odds at all. You are still only going to win with 1 combination of winning numbers. Your chances of winning have gone way up but the odds that a ticket has the right combination is still the same. Each ticket is an independent event.

lol

 

[HardcoreRobot]

and yes, every combination of numbers has the same chance of winning as any other combination, but if you possess more combinations, that increases your chances. you are trying too hard.

 

[xBiffx]

your initial claim:



and now you say:



lol

Odds =! chance. Get a dictionary, then upgrade to a math book.

 

[xBiffx]

Each ticket is independent but they all apply to ONE person! If any one is the winner then the person is a winner.

I have d6 die.
One roll, and I win on roll of "1"
I have a 1 in 6 chance of winning.

I have a d6 die.
One roll, and I win on a roll of "1", "2", "3", "4", "5," or "6".
Only one is going to come up but I have a 6 in 6 chance of winning. The chance to win is not split among 6 people -- the totality is held by one: Me.

The number of tickets does not factor into the calculation at all. Just the probability of the rolls of the dice or in this case the numbers showing up.

The probability of the numbers is the same whether there is one ticket sold or a billion tickets sold. The probability of any ticket having the winning number is the same. All you have done is given yourself more chances to try and match that number.

Edit: Let me put it yet another way. If only one ticket was sold and you got it would you be guaranteed a win? What if you bought two, are the odds any more likely that you will win? And on and on.

 

[mnewsham]

The number of tickets does not factor into the calculation at all. Just the probability of the rolls of the dice or in this case the numbers showing up.

The probability of the numbers is the same whether there is one ticket sold or a billion tickets sold. The probability of any ticket having the winning number is the same. All you have done is given yourself more chances to try and match that number.

there are 175,711,536 different combinations if i buy 175,711,535 different combinations I wont have ANY greater chance of winning? o_o

 

[BoberFett]

Nope. The odds of winning are the same. Each ticket is independent of the other. Doesn't matter how many you buy.

Edit: All you have done by buying more is increase your chances of winning but the odds of a ticket winning are still the same.

Look at it this way. If you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning but you buy two tickets, your odds are not 2 in 4. The odds are still 1 in 4 in two separate chances. By buying two tickets you have not changed the odds that a ticket will win.

If the odds are one in four, and you choose two of the four possibilities, then yes. You have gone from 25% chance to 50%. That's math.

As for Powerball, buying one ticket vs one thousand tickets is statistical noise and your near guarantee of losing $1000 isn't offset by the minute increase to your chance of winning. But mathematically speaking your chances are increased.

 

[BoberFett]

The number of tickets does not factor into the calculation at all. Just the probability of the rolls of the dice or in this case the numbers showing up.

The probability of the numbers is the same whether there is one ticket sold or a billion tickets sold. The probability of any ticket having the winning number is the same. All you have done is given yourself more chances to try and match that number.

Edit: Let me put it yet another way. If only one ticket was sold and you got it would you be guaranteed a win? What if you bought two, are the odds any more likely that you will win? And on and on.

Holy logic/math fail Batman!

 

[xBiffx]

there are 175,711,536 different combinations if i buy 175,711,535 different combinations I wont have ANY greater chance of winning? o_o

Chance yes, of course, odds no. The odds of winning are still 1 in 175,711,536. Same odds if you had bought a single ticket.

 

[xBiffx]

If the odds are one in four, and you choose two of the four possibilities, then yes. You have gone from 25% chance to 50%. That's math.

As for Powerball, buying one ticket vs one thousand tickets is statistical noise and your near guarantee of losing $1000 isn't offset by the minute increase to your chance of winning. But mathematically speaking your chances are increased.

Again chance =! odds.

 

[DominionSeraph]

Odds =! chance.

odds&#8194; &#8194;[odz] Show IPA
noun ( usually used with a plural verb )
1.
the probability that something is so, will occur, or is more likely to occur than something else: The odds are that it will rain today.

chance&#8194; &#8194;[chans, chahns] Show IPA noun, verb, chanced, chanc·ing, adjective
noun
3.
a possibility or probability of anything happening: a fifty-percent chance of success.

 

[zinfamous]

Nope. The odds of winning are the same. Each ticket is independent of the other. Doesn't matter how many you buy.

Edit: All you have done by buying more is increase your chances of winning but the odds of a ticket winning are still the same.

Look at it this way. If you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning but you buy two tickets, your odds are not 2 in 4. The odds are still 1 in 4 in two separate chances. By buying two tickets you have not changed the odds that a ticket will win.

well, I think if you start approaching 200mill+ tickets it does matter. Something about hitting the proper percentage of possible combinations, right?

 

[mnewsham]

Chance yes, of course, odds no. The odds of winning are still 1 in 175,711,536. Same odds if you had bought a single ticket.

except YOUR odds (you the fucking person in possession of the tickets) is 175,711,535 in 175,711,536 each ticket is a separate event yes, however they are all brought together by you the singular owner making YOUR odds almost 100% of winning, each individual ticket wont get increased odds you as a person do.

 

[xBiffx]

well, I think if you start approaching 200mill+ tickets it does matter. Something about hitting the proper percentage of possible combinations, right?

But then the odds are getting to where someone else is going to pick the same combination.

 

[crownjules]

Geez fucking christ. I just read this same exact debate on another forum.