lmao I like how people keep calling out biff on how he was wrong about the Gambler's Fallacy and he just ignores it and continues to post the same stupid math over and over thinking he is right.
1 to 5 odds is not the same as 16.7% chance of winning. Sorry but odds are not a percentage. Yep, your chance does go up but the odds that a ticket wins stays the same as has been said before. You are only going to win once with those twenty unique tickets so odds of you winning are 1 to 999,999.
Odds tell you the ratio that a winning event occurs to a loosing event.
Chance tells you the fraction of the time you can expect to see an event.
Wrong.
You buy 20 tickets, of course the odds of each ticket stays the same. Because they're EACH TICKETS. But you bought 20 of them, therefore you as a 20-ticket holder has increased ODDS.
And how about that Gambler's Fallacy? Hmm?
There is only one way to win this lottery. In this case there are 999,999 ways to lose. No matter how many tickets you buy the odds of winning that lottery is 1 to 999,999. If there were 20 winning numbers then the odds of winning in that case would be 20 to 999,999.
Suppose there are 1,000,000 ways to win, and I buy a ticket for each and every one of those ways. Then I will have a winning ticket, guaranteed.
Yes. If there are only 1,000,000 possibilities for the tickets and there are 1,000,000 ways to win that you basically just said every ticket is a winner in not so few words.
Yes. If there are only 1,000,000 possibilities for the tickets and there are 1,000,000 ways to win that you basically just said every ticket is a winner in not so few words.
OK, this thread needs a little boost to hit legendary status--like 0.99999 = 1 and plane on a treadmill.
Meaning, we need more ATers ITT displaying self-ownage and math retardation.
Thus, I am now in agreement with xBiffx.
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You guys are fucking insane. It's the Monty Hall problem, obviously: No earlier outcome (individual lottery ticket, or each successive ball pulled in drawing) will have any effect on the next ticket or ball pulled.
So, clearly--you dumbsticks--You are stuck with 1000 individual, identical odds of winning.
DUH!
This kid is a fvcking idiot and a troll.
Idiot because he was wrong about his crap math and yapping wrongly about Gambler's Fallacy.
It's real obvious he's realized he was wrong and now ignoring Gambler's Fallacy and pretending to insist on his stupidity.
NO WAY he's a total brain dead. Just. no. way. I have faith in humanity.
Biff:
Yeah OK I fucked up my previous post. My meaning is my previous previous post:
According to your logic, if I bought every possible number combination, my chances/odds of winning would remain unchanged. In reality, it would be 1.
I'll concede I was wrong on calling this the traditional Gambler's Fallacy if you will concede that you are wrong in saying that odds are the same as chance. I've really been just waiting for you to admit something before addressing that. But since you won't, I won't. So goes the intertubes.
Okay, I will give you credit for being legitimate.
You acknowledge that you're wrong about GF, good. It's not the same on my end because I'm NOT wrong. YOU ARE. It's not the matter of me pretending otherwise.
I encourage you. Read my posts. I've explained over and over again, yet you just don't get it.
You are so so terribly WRONG.
Okay, I will give you credit for being legitimate.
You acknowledge that you're wrong about GF, good. It's not the same on my end because I'm NOT wrong. YOU ARE. It's not the matter of me pretending otherwise.
I encourage you. Read my posts. I've explained over and over again, yet you just don't get it.
You are so so terribly WRONG.
Yes, your chance is exactly 1 but your odds ratio doesn't change. It doesn't tell you how likely you will win it just tells you the ratio of how many times a winning number can occur to a loosing number. Odds tell you nothing of how often you should expect to see your numbers, that is chance.
xBiffX is saying that if I lay a chip down on every square, the odds that I will win are still 1 to 37, or that I will win only once in every 38 spins, on average.
No that is not what I am saying. Saying you have 1 in 37 odds is not the same as saying you will win once in every 38 spins. Odds do not tell you how many times you can expect to win, that's chance. Odds tells you how many wining scenarios there are vs. losing scenarios. You still can only win one way everytime so by putting money on every square you haven't made that winning number any more favorable (its still a 1 to 37 possibility) but you have made sure that you will win by making the chance of hitting it 1.
No that is not what I am saying. Saying you have 1 in 37 odds is not the same as saying you will win once in every 38 spins. Odds do not tell you how many times you can expect to win, that's chance. Odds tells you how many wining scenarios there are vs. losing scenarios. You still can only win one way everytime so by putting money on every square you haven't made that winning number any more favorable (its still a 1 to 37 possibility) but you have made sure that you will win by making the chance of hitting it 1.
You will win. What are you saying?
I have 5 numbers to choose: 1 2 3 4 5
One of these numbers is a winning number. You buy tickets for all of these numbers. One of these numbers is guaranteed to be picked. Since you hold tickets for all the numbers, you are guaranteed to hold the winning ticket.
In this case, there is no "chance".
I am saying you will win. But that's not to say there is no chance. Your chance of winning is 1. But the odds for that lottery are still 1 to 4 even if you bought every ticket. Odds can only tell you how many wins can happen vs. losses, not how often you can expect to win.