What has a greater odd?

[dank69]

Nice thread Biff you really got something going here. I have a scenario for you though that requires your wisdom.

I have a friend. He isn't really bright so I don't want to use real names. We will call him Biff. Biff runs his own lottery every day. He has a basket with 50 plastic balls in it and each ball has a different integer on it from 1 to 50. Each night he draws a ball out of the basket, and anyone that has an official ticket that has the same number on it that the ball does wins $100. He then returns the ball to the basket for the next night's drawing. The cost of a ticket is $1. Every day I buy 50 tickets, each one with a different integer on it from 1 to 50. I place those tickets in a safe box until after the drawing each night.

My question for you is this: What are the odds that the safe box contains a winning ticket at the time of the drawing tonight, assuming I purchased the 50 tickets as usual, place them all in the box, they have not been removed from the box at the time of the drawing and the box and its contents have not been damaged or destroyed in any way by the time of the drawing? I'm trying to figure out if I have a magic lucky odds beating box. :hmm: TIA.

 

[Saint Nick]

ITT we argue semantics.

What have I done?

 

[xBiffx]

What have I done?

Nothing..none of this is your fault whatsoever. Don't feel responsible.

 

[FoBoT]

Gee, and I thought I was pedantic. You take the cake, man.

i disagree , you , as Mr. Pedantic, are shirley the most pedantic, otherwise you'll need to change your member name to something else, like "Mr. lessthanReallyPedantic" or something very nice and catchy

 

[Schfifty Five]

My head hurts from reading this thread.

I must admit though, it's made the morning go by fairly quickly. woot!

 

[Gargen]

I said odds, he didn't. I am not allowed to make a statement about his statement? Did I break some sort of rule by pointing something else, aside from what he mentioned, out? And from there this thing exploded into a misuse/misplacement of terms. The point is you can buy as many tickets as you want but it doesn't change the ratio of winning ways to losing ways. All you have done is given yourself that many more opportunities to try those 1 to 176 million odds. Odds are not cumulative. Its a figure based on the game and not the number of tickets. The only way to change them is to change the number of winning combinations picked (ways to win) and/or the number of numbers that make up the combination (ways to lose).

But if odds are not cumulative, how are the odds of winning MegaMillions 1 in 176 million at all? Shouldn't it then be the odds of matching each number is ~1 in 50, because you can't combine the odds of each number in to the odds of hitting the jackpot?

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

But if odds are not cumulative, how are the odds of winning MegaMillions 1 in 176 million at all? Shouldn't it then be the odds of matching each number is ~1 in 50, because you can't combine the odds of each number in to the odds of hitting the jackpot?

You can't change the odds, dude. You just can't, ok?

 

[Schfifty Five]

If I buy 10 tickets (with different combinations), then MY odds of winning will be --

(Ways to succeed) : (Ways to fail)

10 : 175,711,526

with total possible combinations equaling 175,711,536.

If I buy 100 tickets, then MY odds of winning will be --

(Ways to succeed) : (Ways to fail)

100 : 175711,436

with total possible combinations equaling 175,711,536.

So yes, your odds can change.


edit: changed some wording.

 

[zinfamous]

Nice thread Biff you really got something going here. I have a scenario for you though that requires your wisdom.

I have a friend. He isn't really bright so I don't want to use real names. We will call him Biff. Biff runs his own lottery every day. He has a basket with 50 plastic balls in it and each ball has a different integer on it from 1 to 50. Each night he draws a ball out of the basket, and anyone that has an official ticket that has the same number on it that the ball does wins $100. He then returns the ball to the basket for the next night's drawing. The cost of a ticket is $1. Every day I buy 50 tickets, each one with a different integer on it from 1 to 50. I place those tickets in a safe box until after the drawing each night.

My question for you is this: What are the odds that the safe box contains a winning ticket at the time of the drawing tonight, assuming I purchased the 50 tickets as usual, place them all in the box, they have not been removed from the box at the time of the drawing and the box and its contents have not been damaged or destroyed in any way by the time of the drawing? I'm trying to figure out if I have a magic lucky odds beating box. :hmm: TIA.

You should tell your friend to start charging $0.50 for each ticket. See--he will sell more tickets, and thus make more money!

 

[xBiffx]

If I buy 10 tickets (with different combinations), then MY odds of winning will be --

(Ways to succeed) : (Ways to fail)

10 : 175,711,526

with total possible combinations equaling 175,711,536.

If I buy 100 tickets, then MY odds of winning will be --

(Ways to succeed) : (Ways to fail)

100 : 175711,436

with total possible combinations equaling 175,711,536.

So yes, your odds can change.


edit: changed some wording.

How did you give yourself more ways to win? There is still one winning number, not 10, not 100. Those 100 tickets still only have one way to win/match the number drawn, not 100 ways.

Short and sweet answer here.

 

[Jaepheth]

Ok, last attempt...

The odds are DEFINED as P(win) : P(lose). So it's the number of ways to win to the number of ways to lose.

Mega millions has 175,711,536 possible outcomes.

If I buy 1 ticket then I have 1 way of winning and 175,711,535 ways of losing
Odds = 1:175,711,535

If I buy 2 tickets; then there are 2 outcomes in which I win, and 175,711,534 losing outcomes
Odds = 2:175,711,534

If I buy 3 tickets; then there are 3 ways I can win, and 175,711,533 ways I can lose.
Odds = 3:175,711,533

If I buy 4 tickets; I now own 4 possibly winning tickets, and there are 175,711,532 ways I could conceivably lose.
Odds = 4:175,711,532

...

If I buy 203,479 tickets; then 203,479 of the possible combinations will result in me winning; and there would be 175,508,057 losing outcomes.
Odds = 203,479:175,508,057

...

If I buy 10,000,000 tickets; then I own 10,000,000 of the possible outcomes and could lose by one of the other 165,711,536 outcomes.
Odds = 10,000,000:165,711,536

...

If I buy 175,711,535 tickets, all with different combinations, then I have 175,711,535 possible ways of winning, and 1 combination that would result in my losing.
Odds = 175,711,535:1

And finally, if I buy 175,711,536 tickets; that is, every possible combination, then there are no ways in which I can not win.
Odds = 175,711,536:0


I think Biff is using a confused version of Bookmaker's odds instead of the odds of winning. Which would not be relevant to a lottery because there's no bookie involved.

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

I think Biff is using a confused version of Bookmaker's odds instead of the odds of winning. Which would not be relevant to a lottery because there's no bookie involved.

On the wiki page it gives this example:

Example #1: There are 5 pink marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 8 purple marbles. What are the odds in favor of picking one blue marble?

xBiffX would have us believe that the odds of picking a blue marble are only 1 to 13, since the other blue marble will not be the one chosen.

To put it another way, he is saying a person can't increase his odds of winning by changing his guess (wrt to the color of the ball chosen) from blue to pink.

 

[dank69]

How did you give yourself more ways to win? There is still one winning number, not 10, not 100. Those 100 tickets still only have one way to win/match the number drawn, not 100 ways.

Short and sweet answer here.

Lol, niceeeee!

OP thinks he is right but asks question anyway, then rates up the answer that agrees with his original assumption. Meanwhile the correct responses have more thumbs up...

 

[xBiffx]

On the wiki page it gives this example:
Quote:
Example #1: There are 5 pink marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 8 purple marbles. What are the odds in favor of picking one blue marble?
xBiffX would have us believe that the odds of picking a blue marble are only 1 to 13, since the other blue marble will not be the one chosen.

The odds of picking a blue marble are 2 to 13. Not 1 to 13. There are two ways to win.

To put it another way, he is saying a person can't increase his odds of winning by changing his guess (wrt to the color of the ball chosen) from blue to pink.

I didn't say that at all.

The odds of picking a pink are 5 to 10 or simply 1 to 2. The odds of picking a purple are 8 to 7.

The odds of picking each individual color are the same. The odds of picking one color vs. another are of course different. By picking two marbles the odds of picking blue is still 2 to 13 because you didn't change how many blue marbles you had to begin with or the number of marbles, just how many you picked, which is independent of the odds. Your chance at beating those odds has surely changed.

 

[Schfifty Five]

How did you give yourself more ways to win? There is still one winning number, not 10, not 100. Those 100 tickets still only have one way to win/match the number drawn, not 100 ways.

Short and sweet answer here.

Because each of the 10 tickets I bought are potentially winning tickets. They are FOR me winning, not against.

Just going by the link you supplied earlier.

 

[Gargen]

Biff, still waiting for you to explain why, if you can't combine odds, the megamillions jackpot can be expressed as 1 in 176 million rather than needing to be expressed as a series of ~1 in 50 odds.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Biff, still waiting for you to explain why, if you can't combine odds, the megamillions jackpot can be expressed as 1 in 176 million rather than needing to be expressed as a series of ~1 in 50 odds.

Biff sure did make a lot of new friends in this thread didn't he?

 

[SSSnail]

Biff sure did make a lot of new friends in this thread didn't he?

From what I can tell, he made at least one friend from Texas, who hasn't woke up, apparently.

 

[zinfamous]

well, we'll get a *somewhat* decent chance to see just how correct xBiffx is, won't we?

 

[SSSnail]

well, we'll get a *somewhat* decent chance to see just how correct xBiffx is, won't we?

His odds of being correct are about the same as me winning the jackpot with 48 as the mega number.

 

[KillerBee]

It costs $175,711,536 to cover every number combination

So each of the 122 puts up a measly $1,440,258
Winning cash option is $462 million

Subtract %35 tax leaves $300 million

Winnings split among the ATOT 122 players = $2.451 million each

so a guaranteed $1 million each!
(unless someone else happens to win too)

 

[busydude]

It costs $175,711,536 to cover every number combination

So each of the 122 puts up a measly $1,440,258
Winning cash option is $462 million

Subtract %35 tax leaves $300 million

Winnings split among the ATOT 122 players = $2.451 million each

so a guaranteed $1 million each!

Provided we are the only people with that number. There can be many others sharing the same combination.

 

[KillerBee]

Provided we are the only people with that number. There can be many others sharing the same combination.

Well it would have worked last game