[What If] AMD going out of business?

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Lepton87

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2009
2,544
9
81
If AMD went belly-up and closed its doors how would Intel still produce x64 processors? Aren't they licensing it from AMD?

I'm pretty sure that their cross-license agreement is extremely meticulously written and every contingency is accounted for.
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
If AMD went belly-up and closed its doors how would Intel still produce x64 processors? Aren't they licensing it from AMD?

I'm pretty sure that their cross-license agreement is extremely meticulously written and every contingency is accounted for.

IP (intellectual property) which includes patents and the licensing rights thereof are legally viewed as being an asset of the company. As such, they are technically the property of the creditors which own the company in the event of bankruptcy, regardless prior legal agreements involving the liscencing of that IP.

If AMD went bankrupt, whoever AMD was defaulting in repayment to would then have a legal claim to the IP (and there is a pecking order in terms of who among the creditors gets first dibs).

It would be up to Intel at that point to seek out and re-establish a license for the patents involved in the production of their CPU's.

It could get very dicey for Intel at that point actually because the creditors don't need access to Intel's patents, just their cash. They could hold out for some rather stiff terms of compensation and Intel would have no leverage on the matter because they risk facing an injunction against selling their chips if they refused the terms of renegotiation.

Without question it is in Intel's best financial interest that AMD stay "alive", albeit on the hairy edge of not profitable and not purchaseable. Intel is being a smart monopoly, not like AT&T or RCA, they realize there is some benefit to be had in keeping Kuato alive while eating its lunch.
 

smartpatrol

Senior member
Mar 8, 2006
870
0
0
Yeah, it has always been Intel's strategy to keep AMD on "life support". They leave AMD with no choice but to price their highest-performance CPU around $230. Intel gets the high-priced, high-margin segment all to themselves. AMD is relegated to the cheap low-margin stuff.
 

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
IP (intellectual property) which includes patents and the licensing rights thereof are legally viewed as being an asset of the company. As such, they are technically the property of the creditors which own the company in the event of bankruptcy, regardless prior legal agreements involving the liscencing of that IP.

If AMD went bankrupt, whoever AMD was defaulting in repayment to would then have a legal claim to the IP (and there is a pecking order in terms of who among the creditors gets first dibs).

It would be up to Intel at that point to seek out and re-establish a license for the patents involved in the production of their CPU's.

It could get very dicey for Intel at that point actually because the creditors don't need access to Intel's patents, just their cash. They could hold out for some rather stiff terms of compensation and Intel would have no leverage on the matter because they risk facing an injunction against selling their chips if they refused the terms of renegotiation.

Without question it is in Intel's best financial interest that AMD stay "alive", albeit on the hairy edge of not profitable and not purchaseable. Intel is being a smart monopoly, not like AT&T or RCA, they realize there is some benefit to be had in keeping Kuato alive while eating its lunch.

Do you think intel's monopoly would survive another round of more compelling products from AMD? i don't. intel was able to keep AMD suppressed with the help of OEM's and motherboard manufacturers during K8's hayday, but that is definitely not the case this go around. intel no longer has the luxury of everyone involved turning a blind eye, as there are a lot of legal bodies around the world making sure that won't happen. unless intel has another way of bribing the industry undetected, AMD is sure to take marketshare; more capacity and fair access to the free market.

even if AMD doesn't have the highest perfroming processors on the market, i have no idea, they will have a much easier time breaking the monopoly. Fusion looks like a very attractive ecosystem for consumers and developers, and if Brazos is any indication, consumers are quite interested in the entire thing.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
IP (intellectual property) which includes patents and the licensing rights thereof are legally viewed as being an asset of the company. As such, they are technically the property of the creditors which own the company in the event of bankruptcy, regardless prior legal agreements involving the liscencing of that IP.

If AMD went bankrupt, whoever AMD was defaulting in repayment to would then have a legal claim to the IP (and there is a pecking order in terms of who among the creditors gets first dibs).

It would be up to Intel at that point to seek out and re-establish a license for the patents involved in the production of their CPU's.

It could get very dicey for Intel at that point actually because the creditors don't need access to Intel's patents, just their cash. They could hold out for some rather stiff terms of compensation and Intel would have no leverage on the matter because they risk facing an injunction against selling their chips if they refused the terms of renegotiation.

Without question it is in Intel's best financial interest that AMD stay "alive", albeit on the hairy edge of not profitable and not purchaseable. Intel is being a smart monopoly, not like AT&T or RCA, they realize there is some benefit to be had in keeping Kuato alive while eating its lunch.

Assuming AMD went bankrupt, it would in all probability be pre-packaged. AMD's creditors aren't going to want patents - why would a equipment leasing company want .1% of some bizarre patent for example.

If AMD were to be dissolved the patents would be put up for auction - and you can bet Intel would buy every one it felt it needed.
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
Do you think intel's monopoly would survive another round of more compelling products from AMD? i don't. intel was able to keep AMD suppressed with the help of OEM's and motherboard manufacturers during K8's hayday, but that is definitely not the case this go around. intel no longer has the luxury of everyone involved turning a blind eye, as there are a lot of legal bodies around the world making sure that won't happen. unless intel has another way of bribing the industry undetected, AMD is sure to take marketshare; more capacity and fair access to the free market.

even if AMD doesn't have the highest perfroming processors on the market, i have no idea, they will have a much easier time breaking the monopoly. Fusion looks like a very attractive ecosystem for consumers and developers, and if Brazos is any indication, consumers are quite interested in the entire thing.

Unfortunately AMD is, and will always be, capacity constrained by their foundry of choice.

No foundry is going to build-out in advance on a new node in anticipation/expectation of AMD delivering a product that could take 80-90% of the market. Not even a doubling of their marketshare would be a reasonable/responsible build-out of node capacity.

This is one of the flexibilities you give up when you go fabless. As an IDM you can make the executive decision to build capacity like mad, provided you have the cash or the creditors, in anticipation of taking the market by storm. Not so if you are having a foundry build your chips for you.

Assuming AMD went bankrupt, it would in all probability be pre-packaged. AMD's creditors aren't going to want patents - why would a equipment leasing company want .1% of some bizarre patent for example.

If AMD were to be dissolved the patents would be put up for auction - and you can bet Intel would buy every one it felt it needed.

Fab's owned by companies that rank in the top 20 do not lease their tools, they buy them outright.

That said, AMD doesn't own tools, not the multi-million dollar fab kind anyways, GloFo does.

What AMD does owe is a couple billion to the banks. The banks aren't about to take pennies on the dollar for the debt by being foolish in letting go the crown jewels of IP in a firesale. That has simply never happened, for good reason.

At any rate the only way the creditors would gain control of the actual assets of AMD is if AMD was liquidated. That's unlikely as it was for Qimonda or United Airlines.

But worst case scenario, a total liquidation, the IP would go to the bondholders (the banks) and there would be an auction for the patents and Intel would likely buy them but not for pennies on the dollar as every IP troll company out there knows if they can get a key x64 patent then they can write their own checks when it comes time to negotiate with Intel.
 

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
Unfortunately AMD is, and will always be, capacity constrained by their foundry of choice.

No foundry is going to build-out in advance on a new node in anticipation/expectation of AMD delivering a product that could take 80-90% of the market. Not even a doubling of their marketshare would be a reasonable/responsible build-out of node capacity.

This is one of the flexibilities you give up when you go fabless. As an IDM you can make the executive decision to build capacity like mad, provided you have the cash or the creditors, in anticipation of taking the market by storm. Not so if you are having a foundry build your chips for you.

It's not about whether or not they are at full capacity at any given point, but how much marketshare that capacity, constrained or not, will afford them. They could be capacity constrained at 30% or more, so it's kind of irrelevant.

They have two foundries at their disposal, and are currently manufacturing products at both. To think they don't have access to more capacity than they did in 2003-2005 is silly. Both foundries are shrinking nodes, and bringing on new production capabilities, so capacity will rise further.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
I wasn't thinking tooling, I was thinking computers, cars, buildings, that sort of thing.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
It's not about whether or not they are at full capacity at any given point, but how much marketshare that capacity, constrained or not, will afford them. They could be capacity constrained at 30% or more, so it's kind of irrelevant.

They have two foundries at their disposal, and are currently manufacturing products at both. To think they don't have access to more capacity than they did in 2003-2005 is silly. Both foundries are shrinking nodes, and bringing on new production capabilities, so capacity will rise further.

That foundry capacity has to be reserved months, and sometimes up to a year in advance.

It not like AMD can go to GloFo and say "Ship us 40,000 more chips next month".

Manufacturing is not like ordering from Newegg.
 
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podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
102
106
This is one of the flexibilities you give up when you go fabless. As an IDM you can make the executive decision to build capacity like mad, provided you have the cash or the creditors, in anticipation of taking the market by storm. Not so if you are having a foundry build your chips for you.

Actually I would say AMD is in better shape now than before in this respect. Before, they didn't have the money for all that capex. Now GloFlo does. And since they share a common set of owners...
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,131
5,658
126
The Death of AMD has been predicted forever. The closest they ever came to that point was when Intel locked them out of CPU Sockets after Socket 7. AMD rejigged Socket 7 into Super Socket 7 and they have grown in Marketshare and into a more established Industry Leader ever since.
 

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
That foundry capacity has to reserved months, and sometimes up to a year in advance.

It not like AMD can go to GloFo and say "Ship us 40,000 more chips next month".

Manufacturing is not like ordering from Newegg.

i'm sure AMD thought of that
 
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Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
i'm sure AMD thought of that

Please expand upon this.

What contingencies has AMD put in place across the entire supply chain that they could increase their supply in less that say, three months?

Edit: The above is a trick question in a way. So I'll let you answer the same question with a 5 month timeframe.

Bonus points if you can answer why it is a trick question. Feel free to ask your Zoner friends.
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,118
59
91
i'm sure AMD thought of that

Sure :hmm:

And how many 32nm fabs is GloFo bringing on-line in June? Compared to how many that Intel needs for servicing their 80% of the market?

If the numbers are to be interpretted as giving us an indication of how much marketshare they see BullDozer taking, and you seem to be arguing that they would, then it looks like they aren't planning for anything more than just holding their current market share given that GloFo doesn't have any more fab space for 32nm in 2011 than they did for 65nm in 2007.
 

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
oh please, give it up both of you. spin spin spin. can either one of you claim with a straight face that AMD has less capacity now than they had 5 years ago? it's a real head scratcher why you'd even try. lol

i'm not sure what either one of you are debating, but my assertion is that they have enough capacity with 2 foundries to take significant marketshare.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
Yes, AMD has 100% less capacity than they had 5 years ago. AMD doesn't have any foundries.

Now would you please answer my questions?
 
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piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
in other words, they have more capacity than they had 5 years ago, available to gain marketshare.

what question do you need answered? i'll try to help you out.
 

iCyborg

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2008
1,327
52
91
And how many 32nm fabs is GloFo bringing on-line in June? Compared to how many that Intel needs for servicing their 80% of the market?
There's one in USA coming up in summer, but not at full production until 2012.

I don't think AMD is capacity constrained currently, they sold ~4M Brazos and could have sold more if they had ordered more, not because Glo-Fo couldn't produce enough. Similarly for Bulldozer, especially on the server side, their share is what? 5-6%? Sure they would be capacity constrained to overthrow Intel from the leader place, but that's an unrealistic goal in the near term. Getting to 15-25% would be a more reasonable goal, and I think they have capacity for that.
 

Martimus

Diamond Member
Apr 24, 2007
4,488
153
106
There's one in USA coming up in summer, but not at full production until 2012.

I don't think AMD is capacity constrained currently, they sold ~4M Brazos and could have sold more if they had ordered more, not because Glo-Fo couldn't produce enough. Similarly for Bulldozer, especially on the server side, their share is what? 5-6%? Sure they would be capacity constrained to overthrow Intel from the leader place, but that's an unrealistic goal in the near term. Getting to 15-25% would be a more reasonable goal, and I think they have capacity for that.

GloFo doesn't produce Brazos, TSMC does.

I thought that the NY fab is a 22nm fab? I didn't think it would come online for 32nm at all. Maybe I was mistaken.
 

(sic)Klown12

Senior member
Nov 27, 2010
572
0
76
According to GloFo's website, the New York fab is 28nm and below, so it won't be producing the first gen Bulldozer or Llano products. Those are coming from Dresden and maybe Singapore.
 
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iCyborg

Golden Member
Aug 8, 2008
1,327
52
91
GloFo doesn't produce Brazos, TSMC does.

I thought that the NY fab is a 22nm fab? I didn't think it would come online for 32nm at all. Maybe I was mistaken.
I stand corrected for TSMC, should've said a fab instead of guessing which of the two it is

Yeah, the one in NY won't be producing Llano/Bulldozer, it was just a side comment, now I see that he said 32nm fabs, and not any...
 

podspi

Golden Member
Jan 11, 2011
1,982
102
106
Please expand upon this.

What contingencies has AMD put in place across the entire supply chain that they could increase their supply in less that say, three months?

Edit: The above is a trick question in a way. So I'll let you answer the same question with a 5 month timeframe.

Bonus points if you can answer why it is a trick question. Feel free to ask your Zoner friends.


Probably the same contingencies that Intel has put in place


I don't know what Intel's capital utilization is (on the important nodes) but increasing production that quickly would probably be difficult for either company. I still maintain that AMD as a customer of TSMC and GloFlo is probably in a better position to increase capacity (defined as units deliverable - let's not be TOO pedantic :sneaky than they were five years ago. Let's face it, there aren't too many companies that can afford to just build a fab. It's good to be Intel.
 

sonoran

Member
May 9, 2002
174
0
0
Please expand upon this.

What contingencies has AMD put in place across the entire supply chain that they could increase their supply in less that say, three months?

Edit: The above is a trick question in a way. So I'll let you answer the same question with a 5 month timeframe.

Bonus points if you can answer why it is a trick question. Feel free to ask your Zoner friends.

It's a trick question because you can't get some FAB tools delivered in that timeframe.
 
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Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
It's a trick question because you can't some FAB tools delivered in that timeframe.


I'll even let the pie man have tooling already installed and ready to be powered on.

Still can't be done, because the cycle time of an SOI wafer is three months. So in the five months picture that gives you two months to bring up capacity, get yields up, and start running production wafers.

Not Going To Happen.

Of course you could pay about a bajillion and a half dollars to get them to run you some (very) hot lots ahead of other customers.

Also Not Going To Happen.
 

SteveHeinz

Junior Member
May 2, 2011
1
0
0
www.squidoo.com
Intel would be fine without AMD... besides AMD is the one that has had to have IBM's help to figure out 32nm technology.

That being said I am curious to see what happens in early Q 3.
 
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