What is your long-term (5-20 years) prediction for the US economy?

[TheDoc9]

till other countries catch up in terms of standard of living. When equilibrium hits maybe then we'll see something.

This, it's the point of this crash.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

"democracy" is inefficient and ultimately doesnt work. the whole world realizes this and knows the us has spent itself into the ground and is out of money. us economic power is on a permanent decline, which is why it is desperately going around the world starting wars to hold on to its power. corporations know this and are looking to manufacture and sell outside the us. in the long term, the standard of living is going to decline in the us and improve in the rest of the world. it makes a lot of sense. too bad for you if youre stuck in the us though

 

[FoBoT]

Republicans and Democrats don't have the stones to fix the government financial problems (debt+unfunded liabilities of $100+ trillion), therefore, the long term global economic outlook is utter failure. doomed. mega depression. riots/war/death/destruction, etc etc

 

[Doppel]

Macro indicators have gotten worse for the average person for the past few decades and I expect this to continue.

 

[Jaskalas]

Macro indicators have gotten worse for the average person for the past few decades and I expect this to continue.

Yes, and the thing is... there is nothing that we are willing to do about it. If there is anything we even can do.

 

[sportage]

The question to ask is, what will the quality of life be like?
Seniors getting sicker and dying with no healthcare.
No affordable college education.
Nonexistent affordable healthcare.
Few schools. Few teachers.
A society of a few very wealthy, and then all the rest.
Not enough prisons and jails.
Gangs, guns and drugs controlling the streets in every city.
A huge homeless population.
Only minimum wage jobs with absolutely no benefits.
More and more guns. More and more crime.
More and more wars.

 

[Fingolfin269]

My opinion is that on average, over the next 20 years, our economy will remain relatively flat. There may be some ups and downs but I see a long period of general consistency ahead of us. Even if the economy gets a little worse I seriously doubt any of us will ever see the US fall into 3rd world status.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Not really, the more people that are working -> the greater our overall production level -> lower real prices -> an increase in real purchasing power.

The issue you missed is, who gets the benefit of the production? Just because people are working doesn't mean that they're not working for slave wages. In theory we could have 96% employment with most of the employed people only earning $1 a day with the wealthy keeping the vast majority of the wealth produced, which seems to be what happens in some third world countries (as opposed to ones where little is produced).

 

[dmcowen674]

In theory we could have 96% employment with most of the employed people only earning $1 a day with the wealthy keeping the vast majority of the wealth produced

You just gave Republicans an orgasm

 

[Jadow]

You just gave Republicans an orgasm

lol

 

[senseamp]

US is going to be a banana Republic where the rich oligarchs buy off politicians and brainwash the poor masses to preserve their wealth. Middle class is a goner. The poor will be pitted against the middle class. How dare some workers have pensions when you don't.

 

[Doppel]

Not really, the more people that are working -> the greater our overall production level -> lower real prices -> an increase in real purchasing power.

Oh, so that's how it is in China, right?

US is going to be a banana Republic where the rich oligarchs buy off politicians and brainwash the poor masses to preserve their wealth. Middle class is a goner. The poor will be pitted against the middle class. How dare some workers have pensions when you don't.

The dynamic you describe is for the most part already in existence except for the middle class goner, which will take a long time to dissolve (if it does, should nothing change).

 

[Macamus Prime]

Between this and the garbageman plowing your wife post, you Sir are on a roll this morning.

There is hate and disgust towards those who actually work in this country. And, I don't know why.

Those who shift numbers and spreadsheets by cutting jobs are rewarded.

They justify killing off the American worker by stating there are savings and that the worker is lazy, on drugs, a thug, uneducated, worthless, greedy and all sorts of shit.

 

[Trianon]

Interesting letter from Bill Gross of PIMCO:

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/School-Daze-School-Daze-Good-Old-Golden-Rule-Days.aspx

 

[MotF Bane]

Where's the choice for "we're all fucked"?

 

[QuantumPion]

You just gave Republicans an orgasm

Sig line example once again. It is liberals who want masses of perpetually poor underclass working people to keep them in power. Why else would they be in favor of permanent welfare, permanent unemployment, public housing, illegal immigration, etc. Policies meant to keep people poor and dependent on you.

 

[Saint Nick]

I think that the black market will start to become a much more common way to make ends meet.

 

[BurnItDwn]

I think in 5-10 years, the standard of living in China will improve enough that they are no longer a "cheap labor pool."

As China catches up, I suspect more and more factories will be reopened in the USA

I think in 10-15 years, the standard of living in India will have improved enough that they are no longer a "cheap labor pool"

As India catches up, I suspect more and more IT jobs will open in the USA.


However, it's going to take time for them to catch up. And, once they catch up, there will most likely be some other "developing" country with a large labor pool for jobs to go to, however, China and India are FVCKIN HUGE, once their middle classes develop, they are going to become much bigger consumers than the USA....

Anyhow
It's going to continue being rough and miserable for the near term, however, in 20 years, I think things will be a lot better.

 

[Trianon]

More brilliant ideas from Congress - revise already rigged CPI calculation.

http://www.tradesignalonline.com/charts/news.aspx?id=815113&filter=&catid=0

with leadership ideas like this I am not holding my hopes too high for good outcome:

If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.

According to congressional aides familiar with the discussions, the proposal would shift how the Consumer Price Index is calculated to reflect how people tend to change spending patterns when prices increase. For example, consumers tend to drive less when gas prices increase dramatically.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

We're fucked. That sums it up.

 

[matt0611]

Oh, so that's how it is in China, right?The dynamic you describe is for the most part already in existence except for the middle class goner, which will take a long time to dissolve (if it does, should nothing change).

It would be, except the Chinese government manipulates their currency to prevent this.

And yes, wages are still increasing in China even with that.
The Chinese are starting to let the yuan slowly rise.

Its been shown throughout history, prices fell from 1800->1900.
People were much better off. Increases in production causes a fall in real prices. The same amount of money chasing more goods always lowers prices all things being equal.

 

[Doppel]

This is why the US is fvcked right now:

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/mzuck...why-the-jobs-situation-is-worse-than-it-looks

Total payrolls today amount to 131 million, but this figure is lower than it was at the beginning of the year 2000, even though our population has grown by nearly 30 million.

The economy is absolutely fvcked, it really is, it's going to be years before it recovers and many don't think it will recover to the point it used to be, like at all.

 

[Trianon]

get ready for QE3:

http://bloom.bg/ioDdcX#ooid=xlYmpqMjqGaY5EJ9gmju7N5CkV1abEKL

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Sig line example once again. It is liberals who want masses of perpetually poor underclass working people to keep them in power. Why else would they be in favor of permanent welfare, permanent unemployment, public housing, illegal immigration, etc. Policies meant to keep people poor and dependent on you.

Which raises the question, what is it that the conservatives want? I'm guessing that the conversatives want masses of perpetually poor underclass working people to keep them and their wealthy buddies in power. Why else would the conservatives be in favor of global labor arbitrage policies such as foreign outsourcing, H-1B and L-1 visas, and mass immigration, economic policies that will eventually reduce American wages and the standard of living down to third world levels? The conservatives support policies that will allow the rich to take, as profit, larger and larger percentages of working people's contribution to wealth production. The conservatives ultimate goal is thus for a small percentage of the population to be very rich ("the haves and the have mores") with the vast majority of the populace being working poor. Did I mention that they are also in favor of transforming the nation into a Christian version of Iran?

 

[Infohawk]

nm