So it looks like the shutdown is going to happen. Due to Senator Cruz's decision to drag out the debate on financing the government, it looks like the stripped bill won't be approved until Sunday night. That gives Congress only until Monday to pass a compromise bill between the two parties before the Government shuts down on Tuesday.
Timeline of shutdown
I see no way of avoiding a shutdown, it takes longer then a day to hammer a compromise. As we've seen in this thread the Tea Party seems to relish a government shutdown. I'd bet dollars to donuts that a shutdown will happen next Tuesday.
What does a Government Shutdown mean and what are the consequences?
Military typically gets paid the 1st and the 15th of each month. Will the Military be paid this Tuesday? Will they be paid next 15th? ( I believe they still get paid Tuesday, but not the 15th but don't quote me on this.)
How long will the shutdown last? I fully expect the shutdown to end before the 15th. If it doesn't end on the 15th then the military doesn't get paid. At the same time I see a long long week plus shutdown. The truth of the matter is that there's no room for compromise. The Tea Party has drawn a line in the sand and has left no room for anyone to back down. At the same time my biggest fear is the that shutdown extends into the 18th. A default from the US government would endanger the entire world's economy, and IMO the tea party wouldn't mind seeing the world burn.
What ends the shutdown? McCain, Mcconnel and other Senators hate the idea of the shutdown, they remember last shutdown and what it cost the Republican party. In the end some of the saner congressmen will have to caucus with the Democrats and commit political suicide. This is what's going to drag the shutdown out. A few Republicans will need to jump on their own grenade to end this.
Politically IMO October will lead to the end of the Tea Party. People like to talk about the need to water the tree of liberty with blood and other Internet Tough Guy talk, but when push comes to shove they're never willing to stick their own neck out, to suffer their own discomfort for some noble goal. When the military faces not being paid they'll reject the Tea Party. When old people face the threat of not getting a social security check, or losing out on Medicare they'll abandon the Tea Party. Which isn't to say they won't elect Right wing kooks, but these kooks wont' be Tea Party kooks. They'll lack the discipline to band together to throw the nation over a bridge. The Tea Party as we know it will cease to exist by November.