What the heck happened? R9 290 series price increase by $100?!

[JDG1980]

I don't think that AMD has a shortage of the chips. It's only a shortage because of the insane demand spike and because of the transition from 7 series to R9. 7 series cards are no longer produced and the reason for the shortage to R9 series (imo) is because some of the cards (290/290x) run way too hot and reference coolers are being phased out while manufacturers are designing and implementing their own.

It is the Tahiti-based cards (7950/7970/280X) that are most in demand by miners. These are continually sold out at most B&M and online retailers, and when Newegg does have them in stock, they're charging well over MSRP.

Tahiti has been on the market for about 2 full years, so I don't see any reason why AMD would have a shortage. These chips are manufactured on the mature 28nm TSMC process, and yields must be pretty good by now. It's just really high demand, and while no doubt there are some gamers picking them up, the majority of this demand seems to be driven by the Litecoin mining crowd. If it were just gamers, then you'd expect the corresponding Nvidia cards to be selling out as well, which they're not.

 

[nwo]

Great post, shows you actually understand cryptocurrencies and mining in general. I think some of you in this thread should read and re-read this post as it explains the fundamentals that some of you are missing.

Yep, great post indeed.

Pretty much the moral of the story is that you can't lose money whichever way you look at it.

 

[Erenhardt]

I sold a meager 700 LTC (again going by early mining standards) for over $30,000. I even gamed on two of the cards frequently, as they were not dedicated to 24/7 mining.
.

I guess you made a mistake here. You mean $3000, right? 700 coins around $4 per coin.
$30,000 would be possible if you sold your coins recently where the price reached $45 a piece.

 

[battletoad]

I guess you made a mistake here. You mean $3000, right? 700 coins around $4 per coin.
$30,000 would be possible if you sold your coins recently where the price reached $45 a piece.

No, I would be sick to my stomach if I did that. I sold the 700 coins at prices between $40-$45. My $30,000 figure was not a mistake.

 

[Erenhardt]

No, I would be sick to my stomach if I did that. I sold the 700 coins at prices between $40-$45. My $30,000 figure was not a mistake.

And now, everyone hates you for being successful, congrats!

 

[ChuckFx]

The R9 situation is getting emotional. Gamers wanted to get those new cards and when they started buying seriously the stocks started to fall quickly. Now, the etailers decided to capitalize on this with much higer prices, defeating the sole purpose of the 200 series of being perfect performance/value. Gamers are now (for some at leat) angry that they just can't put theirs hands on the new GPUs or they have to pay an unjustified premium to their eyes.

Meanwhile, the miners are in acquisition mode and are gearing up, seeing the profits they CAN make, they don't mind the premium.

I guess (and hope) in 1-2 week the demand will slow down. By then, if we believe the rumors, the non-ref cards will hit the market and we may have another surge in demand but this time, driven by the gamers.

The question is, will the price be lowered in time so we can have the original price/performance ratio on the serie.

Some gamers/ enthusiasts are also plain jealous that they didn't jump on the bandwagon while it was a good deal.

 

[RussianSensation]

It's pretty sad actually. Bitcoin mining is out of reach for GPUs, but Litecoin is still doable for now. When Litecoin difficulty becomes too steep, then another NthCoin will take it's place.

If so, good. More free GPU upgrades for years and years. You have not created a solid argument against bitcoins for more than four years and those who haven't listened to you have decades of free GPU upgrades. Now, you keep singing the same tune on LTC and again every month someone is getting a free R9 290 if they don't listen to the naysayers.

Yeah, I don't think PC gamers are stupid enough to buy at those inflated prices. But miners will buy at stupid inflated prices. It is litecoins causing the shortage.

No, they would not. When "miners" are buying GPUs at inflated prices, it's because the expected pay off is so short that another $100-150 price increase is irrelevant. In that context, the price is not really stupidly inflated since the GPU will need just 1 more week to pay for itself. One can buy an R9 290X for $600 that pays for itself in 5-6 weeks or pay $700 for GTX780Ti that is well a $700 out of pocket expense!

If a gamer sets up a rig with 3-4 GPU, and 2-3 of them are mining, you can game on the primary. When you leave the house, 3-4 of them are now mining. This idea that gamers and bitcoin miners must always be mutually exclusive is not correct. Another scenario is there are certain days where people only have 2-3 hours of gaming time per day because they have family/job, etc. but the rest of the time the PC can be doing BTC/LTC. They can turn off mining for 3 hours of gaming a night and the PC mines for 21 hours in the day. Therefore, you can easily be a gamer and a miner based on these 2 scenarios. Furthermore, there is another group of people who set up PCs with AMD GPUs and use some of the proceeds from mining to purchase NV GPUs which they game on.

I was in the same wagon but now I can't laugh at them anymore. You can't cast it aside in such a simple whim. Looks like crypto currencies are here to stay and GPU mining too.

People did since 2009. Even now, if you can get a hold of R9 280X/290, it pays for itself in such a short amount of time, that the risk is still worth it, partly because to begin with R9 280X/290 are some of the best values anyway. Worst case scenario if mining fails, those GPUs can be sold. If rates are maintained, you get a free GPU that starts to make $ towards your next GPU upgrade.

 

[96Firebird]

I kinda feel bad for those who waited to buy video cards for gaming, whether it be because of the unknown Mantle performance, waiting for aftermarket coolers, or any other reason. I hope prices come back to what they were when the aftermarket coolers come out, but I don't think that will happen. And then, on top of that, it will probably be hard to find them in stock without refreshing the product page every 5 minutes.

Kinda sucks for those who just want to play games...

 

[Final8ty]

One for the Gossip Goats...

Source
https://twitter.com/thenotablecalls
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1456621?source=email_rt_mc_readmore
http://seekingalpha.com/p/1gynr

http://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showthread.php?p=25465736#post25465736

 

[24601]

I kinda feel bad for those who waited to buy video cards for gaming, whether it be because of the unknown Mantle performance, waiting for aftermarket coolers, or any other reason. I hope prices come back to what they were when the aftermarket coolers come out, but I don't think that will happen. And then, on top of that, it will probably be hard to find them in stock without refreshing the product page every 5 minutes.

Kinda sucks for those who just want to play games...

Nothing's stopping them from buying 6xx/760/770/780s...........

 

[Erenhardt]

If a gamer sets up a rig with 3-4 GPU, and 2-3 of them are mining, you can game on the primary. When you leave the house, 3-4 of them are now mining. This idea that gamers and bitcoin miners must always be mutually exclusive is not correct. Another scenario is there are certain days where people only have 2-3 hours of gaming time per day because they have family/job, etc. but the rest of the time the PC can be doing BTC/LTC. They can turn off mining for 3 hours of gaming a night and the PC mines for 21 hours in the day. Therefore, you can easily be a gamer and a miner based on these 2 scenarios. Furthermore, there is another group of people who set up PCs with AMD GPUs and use some of the proceeds from mining to purchase NV GPUs which they game on.

Totally what I did. I grabbed cheap* 7870 thinking at the worst, I will have best perf/$ card I could get. In best case, it will pay for itself and earn for future upgrade.
(EU pricing sucks)

All the time my PC stays at idle while I read the Internet, I have low-profile miner going in the background that I don't even notice. While I'm afk, I turn performance mining profile. While gaming I just pause mining.

 

[RussianSensation]

http://forums.overclockers.co.uk/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=25465736

I am amazed NV even maintained such high market share in the last 4 years in US/Canada and most of Europe. It's pretty shocking it took the world long enough to realize that AMD's GPUs not only paid for themselves but created a decent base of funds for years of future GPU upgrades. Now all those people who started mining some time in the last four years have enough money to keep buying more "free" GPUs to continue script mining. You end up with a snowball effect where if the prices are maintained at high levels, people will keep buying more GPUs and more people will hear about mining and enter. Once new users' GPUs will pay for themselves, like other miners they will buy even more GPUs since it will cost them nothing a they will use the proceeds for future purchases (and they can sell the hardware to get back the funds they spend on the GPUs if they fear that mining will fail). Unless prices of BTC fall or LTC difficulty goes up a lot more, the shortage is unlikely to stop unless AMD increases production.

The biggest leap of faith is buying the first 1 or 2 GPUs such as R9 290s. Once those 2 are paid for, you just earned $800-$1000 of free GPU hardware. That means the 3rd GPU purchased is 'free' since at that point if you immediately sell all 3, your expected return is always positive [You have +$800-1000 of R9 290s and spend -$400 or -$500 for 3rd GPU out of pocket]. Now 3 GPUs are mining and you can buy 2 more for free in 1 month [because the first 2 are paid for and the funds generated after the first month are buying the next 2 GPUs]. After you have 5 and all of them are now mining. Then it's just how many more you want to keep buying.....

 

[blastingcap]

If you believe that cryptocurrency prices will keep going up, then you might as well just buy the cryptocurrency directly. People mocked me for saying this back when BTC was like $50-100 and now look at it. Same with LTC, it was like $3.50.

No headaches with building rigs, finding video cards and mobos and CPUs and CPU coolers and RAM and PSUs, calibrating settings, dealing with power outages, etc. and you would have earned way more by directly buying it than in mining it.

A friend of mine just bought a ton of coins, and he'll probably wind up making more than most miners trying to get in now, because mining difficulty is exploding whereas he got his coins all in one go RIGHT NOW.

 

[RussianSensation]

If you believe that cryptocurrency prices will keep going up, then you might as well just buy the cryptocurrency directly. People mocked me for saying this back when BTC was like $50-100 and now look at it. Same with LTC, it was like $3.50.

Agreed. However, if you think the risk of crypto-currencies failing is significant, then if you buy GPU hardware, you can at least resell it. If you invest $10K into LTC and it drops to $5 from $30, then what? It's about risk vs. reward. Otherwise, yes, it definitely makes sense to just buy the coins if you think their value will go up and are willing to take on more risk than through a hardware purchase. The other approach could be a combination of investing some funds into LTC and some funds into hardware to dilute some of the risk.

---

I just hope AMD doesn't use their selling data as a signal that it's OK to release a crappy reference cooler for the next generation.

 

[blastingcap]

Agreed. However, if you think the risk of crypto-currencies failing is significant, then if you buy GPU hardware, you can at least resell it. If you invest $10K into LTC and it drops to $5 from $30, then what? It's about risk vs. reward. Otherwise, yes, it definitely makes sense to just buy the coins if you think their value will go up and are willing to take on more risk than through a hardware purchase. The other approach could be a combination of investing some funds into LTC and some funds into hardware to dilute some of the risk.

---

I just hope AMD doesn't use their selling data as a signal that it's OK to release a crappy reference cooler for the next generation.

Yeah, but cryptocurrencies are so high-risk that you might as well go all the way rather than pussyfooting with mining.

Also, difficulty is increasing at an exponential rate--it already doubled in the last 3 weeks and is projected to keep doubling every 3-4 weeks for a long time to come. Cards are also way overpriced right now. And there is definitely depreciation risk if mining doesn't work out, if you buy stuff for mining that you wouldn't have bought anyway.

Traders may want to spread their bets by buying some of every alt-coin out there in the hopes one or more makes it big (quarkcoin, PPcoin, Primecoin, Feathercoin, etc.). That's how they do it in venture capital, Hollywood, etc.--funding a bunch of companies or films in the hopes one turns out to be Google or The Avengers (highest grossing film of 2012).

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I'm using my crypto to reinvest, sell high, buy low, keep stacking it. Riding the pump and dumps to continue building assets for future upgrades.

I'm done mining it personally, diff is skyrocketing and more and more people will dump on mint for minor profits keeping the price down until they bewilder themselves into quitting entirely.

Already using only a fraction of my coins after selling my 7950s to pick up a 780 Ti Classified (if the stupid thing ever hit newegg).

Honestly it was pretty stupid of me to mine in the first place, the payout with a single card solely for gaming instead of two with the other directly dumped into LTC instead would have given me far more currency to play day trader with.

Certainly isn't for everyone, but if you forget getting rich quick and just ride the trollbox you should be able to continue to play the game so long as you get lucky more often than not.

 

[rtsurfer]

I'm using my crypto to reinvest, sell high, buy low, keep stacking it. Riding the pump and dumps to continue building assets for future upgrades.

I'm done mining it personally, diff is skyrocketing and more and more people will dump on mint for minor profits keeping the price down until they bewilder themselves into quitting entirely.

Already using only a fraction of my coins after selling my 7950s to pick up a 780 Ti Classified (if the stupid thing ever hit newegg).

Honestly it was pretty stupid of me to mine in the first place, the payout with a single card solely for gaming instead of two with the other directly dumped into LTC instead would have given me far more currency to play day trader with.

Certainly isn't for everyone, but if you forget getting rich quick and just ride the trollbox you should be able to continue to play the game so long as you get lucky more often than not.

Are you specifically waiting for Neweeg fot the classy..?
Why..?

They were instock last night at EVGA website and were quickly sold out.
You could have probably gotten one if you were looking for it.

 

[ultimatebob]

Draw your own conclusions guys.

Man, that's a lot of setup and installation work for... what... $200 a day once he gets all that set up?

That's assuming that he doesn't have to upgrade the wiring coming into his house to power all that equipment... it would likely take weeks for the power company to do that.

Hell, by the time he's finished setting up those systems the difficulty would have increased yet again. If the price of Litecoin doesn't go up with it, now he's only making $150 a day and dropping quickly.

If he's that passionate about Litecoin, he should just buy 500 of them and get it over with.

 

[Pandora's Box]

If you believe that cryptocurrency prices will keep going up, then you might as well just buy the cryptocurrency directly. People mocked me for saying this back when BTC was like $50-100 and now look at it. Same with LTC, it was like $3.50.

No headaches with building rigs, finding video cards and mobos and CPUs and CPU coolers and RAM and PSUs, calibrating settings, dealing with power outages, etc. and you would have earned way more by directly buying it than in mining it.

A friend of mine just bought a ton of coins, and he'll probably wind up making more than most miners trying to get in now, because mining difficulty is exploding whereas he got his coins all in one go RIGHT NOW.

Yeah I just bought some LiteCoins myself. Only 3 so the risk is low, more for curiosities sake than anything.

 

[Pandora's Box]

Man, that's a lot of setup and installation work for... what... $200 a day once he gets all that set up?

Hell, by the time he's finished setting up those systems the difficulty would have increased yet again. If the price of Litecoin doesn't go up, now he's only making $150 a day and dropping quickly.

yeah that's insane. That's like 18 grand in video cards....

 

[BallaTheFeared]

Are you specifically waiting for Neweeg fot the classy..?
Why..?

They were instock last night at EVGA website and were quickly sold out.
You could have probably gotten one if you were looking for it.

Because I like Newegg, and I don't want a $740 video card on the bank statement

 

[rtsurfer]

Because I like Newegg, and I don't want a $740 video card on the bank statement

Partially got it.
I think i get why you don't want it on the bank statement (wife and family).

So do you plan to buy it with Bitcoins directly.?
Does Newegg take Bitcoins.

Sorry for all the questions.
I am curious as to what your plan is.

 

[rtsurfer]

yeah that's insane. That's like 18 grand in video cards....

Man, that's a lot of setup and installation work for... what... $200 a day once he gets all that set up?

That's assuming that he doesn't have to upgrade the wiring coming into his house to power all that equipment... it would likely take weeks for the power company to do that.

Hell, by the time he's finished setting up those systems the difficulty would have increased yet again. If the price of Litecoin doesn't go up with it, now he's only making $150 a day and dropping quickly.

If he's that passionate about Litecoin, he should just buy 500 of them and get it over with.

Found some more

http://imgur.com/a/olq6e

 

[Pandora's Box]

Found some more

lol thats insane. i can't wait for the house/building to burn down from all those systems being daisy chained into like 3 outlets.

 

[JDG1980]

lol thats insane. i can't wait for the house/building to burn down from all those systems being daisy chained into like 3 outlets.

That's what circuit breakers are for. Unless he deliberately messes around with the electrical box to bypass the breaker, all that would happen if he overloads a circuit is that the breaker trips, cutting off power.