Question What will the CPU industry marketshare look like in the future? The Rise of ARM?

[FlameTail]

Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

siliconangle.com

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:

They believe ARM will dominate the future.

 

[poke01]

Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

siliconangle.com

View attachment 99832

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:
View attachment 99831
They believe ARM will dominate the future.

laptops yes, most likely. If everyone makes ARM chips.

Desktop would stay x86. Mainly because of modularity. Newer standards and designs will keep x86 and the IBM PC alive. LPCAMM and better core designs from AMD and Intel.

Maybe, we might even see ARM socketed CPUs go mainstream. If that happens that would be awesome.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

siliconangle.com

View attachment 99832

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:
View attachment 99831
They believe ARM will dominate the future.

Nothing they conflate ARM with in the article is impossible to do just as well on x86.
And well pivoting to ARM isn't that hard to do if it becomes the new standard. It really does come down to Intel getting back to competitiveness as most x86 losses are on them, along with the natural fact of the x86 licence being locked down from new entrants.
And I think the writers are in way over their heads with signs of lacking technical proficiency, to really understand what they are talking about.
That is all I'll say as I'd be here for a long time otherwise.

 

[moinmoin]

Analysis of the future of semiconductors by Siliconangle.

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

How Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom and Qualcomm will lead a trillion-dollar silicon boom - SiliconANGLE

siliconangle.com

View attachment 99832

The article is such a colossal chungus, I am incapable of summarising it. But the key point I would like to highlight is this:
View attachment 99831
They believe ARM will dominate the future.

The link between AI AI AI and ARM is really tenuous.

But I can see how Microsoft and all the OEMs are hoping the following to be true:

"AI PCs will cause PC lifecycles to shorten."

Let's just hope that's not achieved by quickly obsolescing tech and electrical failures.

 

[SteinFG]

Let's just hope that's not achieved by quickly obsolescing tech and electrical failures.

You just won't get any new AI features a year or two after buying a product. Seems like MS wans to double NPU requirements every few years. Well, at least for as long as npu progress is going.

 

[FlameTail]

You just won't get any new AI features a year or two after buying a product. Seems like MS wans to double NPU requirements every few years. Well, at least for as long as npu progress is going.

So, for their 1st gen Copilot+ PCs, Microsoft has specified a minimum of 40 TOPS.

As you mentioned, they are rumoured to double this requirement for their 2nd generation Copilot+ PCs. So something like 80 TOPS?

But current, like the one in the X Elite, do 45 TOPS of INT8. If INT4 becomes the standard for on-device AI, then will the X Elite be able to support 2nd gen Copilot+ PCs? Since, the X Elite's NPU supports INT4, which would theoretically execute at double the speed, aka 90 TOPS.

 

[Doug S]

The link between AI AI AI and ARM is really tenuous.

Tenuous? Its non-existent. "AI PCs" aren't implementing their AI as part of the CPU ISA, its a totally separate block in everyone's implementation. You could get the same AI performance out of a Pentium Pro if someone cared enough to make an SoC that included that core along with a state of the art NPU block.

That graph showing ARM PCs taking reminds me of the graphs that research firms put out after Windows Phone was released showing it quickly rising to #1 in smartphone sales. That had about as much chance as their graph above does of actually happening.

But hey, "theCube Research" got what they wanted - their research is probably being splashed around all over making everyone familiar with a name I had never heard of before. They know few remember actual predictions, but name recognition among the right people will increase their business. By the time this prediction is obviously wrong and laughable they'll have added a bunch of new customers. And it isn't as if the big boys like Gartner have a great track record (I'm not 100% sure but I think they were the one who made that Windows Phone call I mentioned above)

 

[FlameTail]

Exclusive-Arm aims to capture 50% of PC market in five years, CEO says

TAIPEI -Arm Holdings aims to gain more than 50% of the Windows PC market in five years, the chip designer's CEO said, as Microsoft and its hardware partners prepare to launch a new batch of computers based on the British firm's technology. Arm's U.S.-listed shares climbed 2.6% in pre-market...

finance.yahoo.com

TAIPEI -Arm Holdings aims to gain more than 50% of the Windows PC market in five years, the chip designer's CEO said, as Microsoft and its hardware partners prepare to launch a new batch of computers based on the British firm's technology.

Wow.

The ultimate reckoning for x86?

 

[SpudLobby]

Exclusive-Arm aims to capture 50% of PC market in five years, CEO says

TAIPEI -Arm Holdings aims to gain more than 50% of the Windows PC market in five years, the chip designer's CEO said, as Microsoft and its hardware partners prepare to launch a new batch of computers based on the British firm's technology. Arm's U.S.-listed shares climbed 2.6% in pre-market...

finance.yahoo.com

Wow.

The ultimate reckoning for x86?

Obviously the axis of AMD here and on Reddit are going to eat sh$! they’ve handed Arm vendors a window for WoA to take off as viable, which probably won’t reverse lol.

But right now it’s just Qualcomm. They’re exceeding expectations on the partnership front, but I wouldn’t even bet they get to 50 in 5 years with QC and AMD/Sammy Exynos/Nvidia’s Intel 3 part (and say there’s a few follow-ups with a similar balance of cost and limited deployment). Not to mention Soundwave is Surface only, too. Exynos if it even happens with the 2500 would be Samsung who commands little marketshare.

Unless Nvidia really goes all-in beyond a midrange cheap-fab part they update, you really need MediaTek. They have the IP and economies of scale from phones, and would be interested in going from 0 to N% marketshare at margins Intel or even AMD don’t do. They also have actual vertically integrated advantages with connectivity I guess, or maybe license Nvidia GPU IP.

And so far we’ve heard not enough about that. Even if they had one good part launching tomorrow, they really would need good gaming drivers and ideally multiple dice to hit the $600-1000 and then $1K and up stuff imo and gaming is going to take time.


I just don’t see it lmao, this is insane cheap talk. Not in 5 years with where we’re starting right now. 2035? Would bet in favor of it! But not 2029.

 

[jpiniero]

Yeah I'm not seeing it. Corpos (the majority of the market) don't even bother to switch to AMD, so why would they even consider WoA?

 

[Saylick]

Yeah I'm not seeing it. Corpos (the majority of the market) don't even bother to switch to AMD, so why would they even consider WoA?

Maybe because MS is the one backing it. I presume that MS would be willing to throw status quo under the bus if it meant proliferation of Windows in more devices.

 

[adroc_thurston]

if it meant proliferation of Windows in more devices.

You're just carving the same TAM out between different vendors.
PC TAM ain't ever going back to the 2021 peak.

 

[Saylick]

You're just carving the same TAM out between different vendors.
PC TAM ain't ever going back to the 2021 peak.

But what if the hardware lets you carve out a bigger TAM? Isn't that what this whole AI play is all about? MS has everyone in a vice making AI chips for them.

 

[adroc_thurston]

But what if the hardware lets you carve out a bigger TAM?

How.

Isn't that what this whole AI play is all about?

No, it's an attempt to combat PC refresh cycle slowdown.
2024 PC TAM is still below 2019 levels, after all.

MS has everyone in a vice making AI chips for them.

They had Intel making 4.5W tablet chips and before that, Bay Trails and windows tablets went about nowhere!

 

[B-Riz]

Yeah I'm not seeing it. Corpos (the majority of the market) don't even bother to switch to AMD, so why would they even consider WoA?

Waiting for the day the Fortune 500 companies start buying WoA laptops en masse for employee use...

Your point is hilariously correct, I am stuck (work laptop) on some mediocre "new" Intel 4c8t chip, when AMD has had 6/12 and 8/16 in mobile for a while. The CPU goes to 100% more often than not :|

 

[moinmoin]

How.

Hype.

But yeah, even if that's successful it won't amount to anything more than a temporary bubble (again).

 

[FlameTail]

We have news, my friends.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/mediatek-designs-arm-based-chip-microsofts-ai-laptops-say-sources-2024-06-11/

The Nvidia effort for its PC chip involves help from MediaTek, according to a person familiar with the matter. The MediaTek effort for a PC chip is separate from its collaboration with Nvidia, two of the people said.

So both Nvidia and Mediatek are individually working on their own ARM PC SoCs. A two pronged attack!


This is a photo from Mediatek's Computex 2024 Keynote, where the CEOs of ARM, Mediatek and Nvidia stand shoulder to shoulder as one. A sign of things go come.