What would an AMD bankruptcy mean?

[bryanW1995]

It's a realistic thread, we just all know that wreckage wouldn't have written it if nvidia was having financial difficulties instead of amd. Interestingly enough, nvidia would be a natural buyer for amd if they went downhill. they could certainly use the x86 license, and they would be primed going forward to not only sell their own gpus but limit them to just their own proprietary cpus (and maybe some apples if the $$ was right). I wonder if anti-trust regulators would ok the deal b/c of the continued competition for intel or if they would nix it for giving nvidia a near-monopoly in the discrete gpu market?

 

[akugami]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995
It's a realistic thread, we just all know that wreckage wouldn't have written it if nvidia was having financial difficulties instead of amd.

There's your problem right there. We all know Wreckage's agenda is to spread FUD against AMD. Even when he posts something that is valid, his past history is going to dictate that the thread gets crapped to hell.

AMD isn't in any great condition and they could certainly use at least four solid quarters and a profitable fiscal year. The latest quarter wasn't too bad if you think about the fact that the markets are still depressed.

Interestingly enough, nvidia would be a natural buyer for amd if they went downhill. they could certainly use the x86 license, and they would be primed going forward to not only sell their own gpus but limit them to just their own proprietary cpus (and maybe some apples if the $$ was right). I wonder if anti-trust regulators would ok the deal b/c of the continued competition for intel or if they would nix it for giving nvidia a near-monopoly in the discrete gpu market?

I don't believe that the x86 licensing terms between AMD and Intel are transferable. If AMD was bought by another company, I think the original x86 IP's from AMD are obviously transferable to the new company but the ones that AMD has implemented via the AMD/Intel cross license is null and void.

I believe the original x86 CPU patent has expired so nVidia could build an x86 CPU right now even without buying AMD but a lot of the advancements in the x86 design implemented by AMD and Intel would not be available and they would be stuck with an outdated CPU.

Not sure nVidia would pick up ATI unless it was very cheap.

 

[konakona]

Originally posted by: Ben90

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: Mr Fox



Ummm like isn't their daddy saudi ?

United Arab Emirates actually. Although it remains unclear if they have interest beyond their take over of the fabs.

Glad Bush isnt our pres still
"B-B-But they had weapons of nano-destruction!"

lol
/thread

 

[lavaheadache]

i forsee some nvidia struggle coming up too. I'm sure if AMD can get their next few cpu's and gpu's out smoothly as they have with phenom II's and hd48xx series and now the 58xx series, they will start becoming profitably sound again.


Just wondering how with all the good things to be said about what's happening at AMD, all we keep hearing from this valued member is red team dooms day phophecies and green pom poms shaking.

IF this thread was posted by anybody else i would have respected it.

 

[Zstream]

Originally posted by: Wreckage
This sums up a lot of the concerns.
http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...-bankruptcy-2009-09-29

This just shows you that AMD should go private. AMD is doing nothing being public, in fact they lost so much money due to the market sliding and market expectations it is not even funny.

Just my belief is all.

 

[ShadowOfMyself]

You know the thing is people have been saying this since the merger... I bet none of those people would ever expected AMD to release stellar products like the 4800 and 5800 series, so who knows what will happen tomorrow? Yes they are in a bad situation, but its not over until its over

 

[sbuckler]

It is a realistic thread - they have huge debts and keep loosing money (even the last quarter which was very good for them they still lost money). Companies a lot bigger then AMD have gone under in the last year or two.

If they went bankrupt they'd get broken up and sold cheap.

I suspect nividia would be very tempted by the cpu bit if they could get x86, which Intel might actively encourage both to keep the monopolies people off their back, and to keep x86 as the key computer tech.

Intel would buy the Ati.

Life would go on as before, except nvidia could make cpu's and ati would be richer.

 

[novasatori]

Originally posted by: ShadowOfMyself
You know the thing is people have been saying this since the merger... I bet none of those people would ever expected AMD to release stellar products like the 4800 and 5800 series, so who knows what will happen tomorrow? Yes they are in a bad situation, but its not over until its over

Sure I would have expected the 4xxx and 5xxx series from ATI, they've always been close to NV in performance and released good cards.

ATI was fine before AMD acquired them, in fact I think they might have been better off at the moment.

AMD would be less 5b debt and ATI would still be doing its thing, maybe they could have cross licensed some stuff.

 

[taltamir]

Originally posted by: OCguy
They wouldnt go bankrupt, they would be swallowed by a big player.

already happened.. united arab emirates now owns majority stock in AMD / the spin off fab company.

And if that goes down, maybe china will buy them.

 

[BenSkywalker]

I don't believe that the x86 licensing terms between AMD and Intel are transferable. If AMD was bought by another company, I think the original x86 IP's from AMD are obviously transferable to the new company but the ones that AMD has implemented via the AMD/Intel cross license is null and void.

You aren't looking at the bigger picture if it were to happen. nV would own every major piece of graphics IP. They could say fine, keep you x86 license- go back to punch cards too. I don't think Intel would want to take place in that stalemate- the are making ~$10Billion in profit on an annual basis, nV can send everyone on vacation and stop making parts for a month and it would cost Intel $1Billion- just wouldn't be smart business. Intel would be forced to deal the x86 license to nV or not be allowed to display images on a screen.

Not sure nVidia would pick up ATI unless it was very cheap.

If it got spun off, Intel would never allow nVidia to be able to afford it. With ATi's IP they could easily play hard ball with nV and win(nV can't make parts without cross licensing- the same with ATi). Without any graphics IP at all, Intel is SOL when they want to push one of the GPU makers around, if they held a large chunk of crucial IP there would be noone left they couldn't bully around.

 

[Wreckage]

Maybe AMD will end up like K-mart.

K-mart filed bankruptcy and then somehow bought Sears.

 

[Stoneburner]

Sparky only posted this thing because of the anand article on nvidia.

Such a transparent soul...

 

[wlee15]

Well AMD taking away most of nVidia's chipset business (including the lucrative workstation/server markets) should be a good start on the path of profitability.

 

[bradley]

"I won't be of much value to subscribers if I couch my opinion of AMD with hedges and qualifiers, so I'll be very blunt: I think AMD, now trading at around $7, will dip to $1 or $2 a share in the next year or two. My guess is that bankruptcy may be the ultimate destination. That doesn't mean AMD will disappear entirely, but that its debtholders (many of whom are based in Germany, as discussed below) will own this company, not its current shareholders."

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmo...rtist_up/10085197.html

 

[spankure]

Originally posted by: bradley
"I won't be of much value to subscribers if I couch my opinion of AMD with hedges and qualifiers, so I'll be very blunt: I think AMD, now trading at around $7, will dip to $1 or $2 a share in the next year or two. My guess is that bankruptcy may be the ultimate destination. That doesn't mean AMD will disappear entirely, but that its debtholders (many of whom are based in Germany, as discussed below) will own this company, not its current shareholders."

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmo...rtist_up/10085197.html

Thats from april 2003. 6 months after that analyst wrote that, the stock was at $14. His subscribers would have been better of if he kept his mouth shut.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: spankure

Originally posted by: bradley
"I won't be of much value to subscribers if I couch my opinion of AMD with hedges and qualifiers, so I'll be very blunt: I think AMD, now trading at around $7, will dip to $1 or $2 a share in the next year or two. My guess is that bankruptcy may be the ultimate destination. That doesn't mean AMD will disappear entirely, but that its debtholders (many of whom are based in Germany, as discussed below) will own this company, not its current shareholders."

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmo...rtist_up/10085197.html

Thats from april 2003. 6 months after that analyst wrote that, the stock was at $14. His subscribers would have been better of if he kept his mouth shut.

I think he was setting bait for Wreckage

 

[LCD123]

Originally posted by: IlllI
if amd went under intel could price their cpus whatever they felt like. amd is the only one keeping them from doing so, but w/o any competition.. well everyone will be paying much more for their computers.
i guess via would still make some x86 processors but no other company could produce something that could compete with i7 etc.

We won't see any more Celerons and all future cpus will start at $500 and the high end CPUs can cost over $2000! Ditto for video cards!

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: LCD123

We won't see any more Celerons

You make that sound like it's a bad thing.

 

[akugami]

Originally posted by: BenSkywalker

I don't believe that the x86 licensing terms between AMD and Intel are transferable. If AMD was bought by another company, I think the original x86 IP's from AMD are obviously transferable to the new company but the ones that AMD has implemented via the AMD/Intel cross license is null and void.

You aren't looking at the bigger picture if it were to happen. nV would own every major piece of graphics IP. They could say fine, keep you x86 license- go back to punch cards too. I don't think Intel would want to take place in that stalemate- the are making ~$10Billion in profit on an annual basis, nV can send everyone on vacation and stop making parts for a month and it would cost Intel $1Billion- just wouldn't be smart business. Intel would be forced to deal the x86 license to nV or not be allowed to display images on a screen.

Not sure nVidia would pick up ATI unless it was very cheap.

If it got spun off, Intel would never allow nVidia to be able to afford it. With ATi's IP they could easily play hard ball with nV and win(nV can't make parts without cross licensing- the same with ATi). Without any graphics IP at all, Intel is SOL when they want to push one of the GPU makers around, if they held a large chunk of crucial IP there would be noone left they couldn't bully around.

True, I didn't think of that. In fact, I think the lawsuit that nVidia brought against Intel over graphics patents was because Intel cut them out of the mobo chipset business. If nVidia were somehow to somehow gain control of the GPU patents that is owned by AMD they could very well bully Intel into allowing them into the x86 market. Especially since Intel currently wants to compete in the GPU sector.

I do think that one company in control of the market, be it the x86 CPU business or the GPU business, will slow the rate of innovation and ultimately the market will stagnate. Look at Creative who now owns the audio card market. The market is really down the tubes.

Ultimately, I think Intel entering the GPU business is a good thing since it lights a fire under AMD and nVidia. I would love for nVidia to be able to enter the x86 CPU business to do the same against AMD and Intel.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Confussing thread . Amd be in black next Qt . Light at end of tunnel . Looking better for AMD .

 

[Nemesis 1]

Originally posted by: bryanW1995
It's a realistic thread, we just all know that wreckage wouldn't have written it if nvidia was having financial difficulties instead of amd. Interestingly enough, nvidia would be a natural buyer for amd if they went downhill. they could certainly use the x86 license, and they would be primed going forward to not only sell their own gpus but limit them to just their own proprietary cpus (and maybe some apples if the $$ was right). I wonder if anti-trust regulators would ok the deal b/c of the continued competition for intel or if they would nix it for giving nvidia a near-monopoly in the discrete gpu market?

Interesting . IBM also maybe . The smartest buyer would be APPLE, But I believe AMD well recover . Because NV has jack to compete with ATI that should keep AMD head above water.

 

[bryanW1995]

the problem with most large IT companies is that they don't WANT to go head to head with intel for some strange reason. Nvidia doesn't have a choice with larrabee, chipsets, apple contracts, whoopass, etc, so they don't have much of a choice.

 

[bryanW1995]

Originally posted by: spankure

Originally posted by: bradley
"I won't be of much value to subscribers if I couch my opinion of AMD with hedges and qualifiers, so I'll be very blunt: I think AMD, now trading at around $7, will dip to $1 or $2 a share in the next year or two. My guess is that bankruptcy may be the ultimate destination. That doesn't mean AMD will disappear entirely, but that its debtholders (many of whom are based in Germany, as discussed below) will own this company, not its current shareholders."

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmo...rtist_up/10085197.html

Thats from april 2003. 6 months after that analyst wrote that, the stock was at $14. His subscribers would have been better of if he kept his mouth shut.

if that was bait for wreckage then it was pretty weak. I'm mostly sure that he knows how to read.

 

[waffleironhead]

Wasnt that yahoo article pre- 5870 release?


"With the recent financial announcement from AMD"

Which announcement was that?

 

[Griswold]

Originally posted by: taltamir

Originally posted by: OCguy
They wouldnt go bankrupt, they would be swallowed by a big player.

already happened.. united arab emirates now owns majority stock in AMD / the spin off fab company.

Neither ATIC nor Mubadala owns majority stock in AMD by themselves. Mubadala owns 19.3%, ATIC none (or nothing significant) at all IIRC. They didnt buy shares of AMD, they bought the fabs pretty much. Thats less than the 24.4% held by insiders of AMD.

As for GF, AMD owns some 35% and ATIC owns 65% of it but they have equal voting rights anyhow.