What would happen to AMD if Nvidia release new cards soon?

[amenx]

Already they are behind Pascals high end, so how badly would new gen cards released by Nvidia affect AMD? Say an 1180 @ 20% better than 1080ti and an 1170 equal to it. That would put AMD way behind the curve for quite a while. Would AMD still be relevant for those tiers card segments? Could they overcome such a steep performance gap and respond to it quickly enough?

With the mining craze basically over, and consoles low margins, could AMDs graphics division survive? Or would they likely find some business partner to merge with, say Intels graphics business? Dont see how they can be effective on their own with their limited resources. They've managed quite well under similar daunting circumstances with their CPU division, but can they also pull a rabbit out of the hat with their graphics business?

 

[Flapdrol1337]

Not going to be that different. Nvidia will just be able to get away with charging an even higher margin.

 

[whm1974]

Not going to be that different. Nvidia will just be able to get away with charging an even higher margin.

Dude you want to change your word coloring to something that is readable. I can't even see it.

 

[Dribble]

I think AMD will turn towards cpu's more - they are more competitive there, the market is much larger, and the competition is less scary. That means they are really only competing with Intel for gpu's and that's a much easier win. So I expect they cut back on gpu investment - just stay ahead of Intel will be the requirement - and put the money into cpu's.

The discrete market is Nvidia's - really that is already the case, it's just that mining came out of no-where and meant everyone could sell everything they make, which somewhat delayed the inevitable.

Competing in the discrete gpu market is not how you beat Nvidia, what you do is remove the whole market - you can't sell graphics cards if motherboards no longer have a slot to put them in - that I suspect is AMD and Intel's mid-long term aim.

 

[Flapdrol1337]

Dude you want to change your word coloring to something that is readable. I can't even see it.

On my screen it's identical to the other posts.

edit: guess I clicked somewhere accidently but could only see it in bbcode

 

[Tweak155]

On my screen it's identical to the other posts.

Looks the same as any other post for me as well.

 

[whm1974]

On my screen it's identical to the other posts.

edit: guess I clicked somewhere accidently but could only see it in bbcode

It's now fixed. Thanks.

 

[Pneumothorax]

Not much will change unless Nvidia decides to go for the throat by continuing to sell 1070/1080's at 1050/1060 prices like generations past. But we know they won't do that anytime soon. Not many can afford card above the $300 level despite hardware/overclock boards making it sound like everyone is rocking a 1080Ti/Titan Xp

 

[happy medium]

AMD will catch up the same way they did with cpu's s, they will wait till the competition has trouble with the node size at 5nm and make a miraculous come back and everyone will reward them by buying there products even though they are still slower.
Yes, this is my opinion, but it will come true.

 

[UsandThem]

AMD will catch up the same way they did with cpu's s, they will wait till the competition has trouble with the node size at 5nm and make a miraculous come back and everyone will reward them by buying there products even though they are still slower.
Yes, this is my opinion, but it will come true.

I think that is the point for "value" shoppers.

I will gladly buy a lower performing AMD card if it's priced accordingly.

What I will not do is pay the same amount (and even more) for a Vega 56 and 64 when it is handily beat by a 1080ti. That has been the issue pretty much since Vega launched. It was hard to buy, overpriced, and used too much power. Who knows what's going to happen in the future now that GPU prices are beginning to drop.

 

[jpiniero]

Turing prices are going to be high enough that AMD should be okay provided they are fine with going back to the original MSRP even with the memory price increases.

 

[happy medium]

Turing prices are going to be high enough that AMD should be okay provided they are fine with going back to the original MSRP even with the memory price increases.

Gtx1160 priced are projected to be $299. A gtx1160 should be a little faster than Vega 56 but slightly slower than a Vega 64. The 1170 will be faster than a Vega 64 for $499.
I think AMD will have to decrease current prices drastically to compete.

 

[Head1985]

Already they are behind Pascals high end, so how badly would new gen cards released by Nvidia affect AMD? Say an 1180 @ 20% better than 1080ti and an 1170 equal to it. That would put AMD way behind the curve for quite a while. Would AMD still be relevant for those tiers card segments? Could they overcome such a steep performance gap and respond to it quickly enough?

With the mining craze basically over, and consoles low margins, could AMDs graphics division survive? Or would they likely find some business partner to merge with, say Intels graphics business? Dont see how they can be effective on their own with their limited resources. They've managed quite well under similar daunting circumstances with their CPU division, but can they also pull a rabbit out of the hat with their graphics business?

Nothing?AMD sale only to miners anyway.Here in EU there was like zero cards from AMD in last half year in e-shops.

 

[amenx]

Nothing?AMD sale only to miners anyway.Here in EU there was like zero cards from AMD in last half year in e-shops.

That was funny. True in a sense, but for gamers who traditionally stick to AMD, I can see them switching sides because big performing cards vs "nothing" is a hard proposition to ignore. Of course assuming Nvidia can maintain decent stocks at reasonable prices.

 

[Guru]

1. Nvidia won't be releasing any new desktop GPU's anytime soon. Nvidia is skipping 12nm, that is more than obvious now, since if they weren't skipping it they would have been shipping their their xx70 and xx80 series already, GDDR6 has been available since February 2018, by now most memory manufacturers have it in plenty of supply, 12nm technology has been ready for over 6 months now, sampling up to one year before.

2. Even if Nvidia released new 12nm GPU's in the summer, there is NO WAY that a GTX 2070 would be faster than a GTX 1080ti. Okay? From 28nm to 16nm tsmc finfet process is over 50% more efficient, 16nm to 12nm you are looking at a basically refined 16nm process, with about 10 to 15% more efficient. Lets put it at best case scenario where they can extract 15% more performance at the same power envelope, where is the other 40% going to come from? GTX 1080ti is over 50% faster than a GTX 1070. How would a GTX 2070 reach GTX 1080ti levels if the node shrink gives at best 15% performance boost at same power?

3. It doesn't make financial.business sense to release new GPU's right now. Cryptocurrency is still going quite well, its not what it used to be, you won't get rich quick off of it, but its still profitable, within a year miners can return the cost of their mining rigs and turn a decent profit, and that is in the first year alone. So there is still demand for GPU's. If its not crypto that drives sales, then its gaming and Nvidia is selling out all of their GPU's. With the 16nm process so mature, yields are amazing, so they are racking in record profits.

As I've predicted since October of 2017 and have been posting it ever since, Nvidia is most likely going to go straight to 7nm process, this gives them enough time to gather a ton of GDDR6, GDDR5x, etc... supply, gives them plenty of time to sell current graphics at record profits, the 7nm process is about 50% more efficient than 16nm process, so it will give a similar performance boost as 16nm did over 28nm, it allows them to better create and tune their next desktop architecture and would allow them to sell similarly sized, priced and powered GPU's.

So GTX 2060/70/80/etc... would be the same die size, same power envelope as current gen, but about 30-40% faster.

GTX 2060 > GTX 1070 at 120w at $250
GTX 2070 > GTX 1080 at 150w at $380
GTX 2080 > GTX 1080ti at 200w at $550
GTX 2080ti > Volta at 250W at $750

I expect each model with the lower number to be slightly faster than the current higher model number. So the GTX 2060 would likely be about 5-10% faster than a GTX 1070.

 

[happy medium]

1. Nvidia won't be releasing any new desktop GPU's anytime soon. Nvidia is skipping 12nm, that is more than obvious now, since if they weren't skipping it they would have been shipping their their xx70 and xx80 series already, GDDR6 has been available since February 2018, by now most memory manufacturers have it in plenty of supply, 12nm technology has been ready for over 6 months now, sampling up to one year before.

2. Even if Nvidia released new 12nm GPU's in the summer, there is NO WAY that a GTX 2070 would be faster than a GTX 1080ti. Okay? From 28nm to 16nm tsmc finfet process is over 50% more efficient, 16nm to 12nm you are looking at a basically refined 16nm process, with about 10 to 15% more efficient. Lets put it at best case scenario where they can extract 15% more performance at the same power envelope, where is the other 40% going to come from? GTX 1080ti is over 50% faster than a GTX 1070. How would a GTX 2070 reach GTX 1080ti levels if the node shrink gives at best 15% performance boost at same power?

3. It doesn't make financial.business sense to release new GPU's right now. Cryptocurrency is still going quite well, its not what it used to be, you won't get rich quick off of it, but its still profitable, within a year miners can return the cost of their mining rigs and turn a decent profit, and that is in the first year alone. So there is still demand for GPU's. If its not crypto that drives sales, then its gaming and Nvidia is selling out all of their GPU's. With the 16nm process so mature, yields are amazing, so they are racking in record profits.

As I've predicted since October of 2017 and have been posting it ever since, Nvidia is most likely going to go straight to 7nm process, this gives them enough time to gather a ton of GDDR6, GDDR5x, etc... supply, gives them plenty of time to sell current graphics at record profits, the 7nm process is about 50% more efficient than 16nm process, so it will give a similar performance boost as 16nm did over 28nm, it allows them to better create and tune their next desktop architecture and would allow them to sell similarly sized, priced and powered GPU's.

So GTX 2060/70/80/etc... would be the same die size, same power envelope as current gen, but about 30-40% faster.

GTX 2060 > GTX 1070 at 120w at $250
GTX 2070 > GTX 1080 at 150w at $380
GTX 2080 > GTX 1080ti at 200w at $550
GTX 2080ti > Volta at 250W at $750

I expect each model with the lower number to be slightly faster than the current higher model number. So the GTX 2060 would likely be about 5-10% faster than a GTX 1070.

12nm will be 40% more efficient than 16nm and Nvidia is releasing cards in July and they will be 12nm.
So how fast will a gtx1180 be?
At least 40% faster than a gtx1080 in the same power envelope.

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-gtx-1180-custom-cards-by-august-september/

 

[Guru]

12nm will be 40% more efficient than 16nm and Nvidia is releasing cards in July and they will be 12nm.
So how fast will a gtx1180 be?
At least 40% faster than a gtx1080 in the same power envelope.

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-gtx-1180-custom-cards-by-august-september/

Why are you quoting wcftech? Might as well quote Mickey Mouse! And yeah Micky Mouse and Santa Clause confirmed 12nm new Nvidia GPU's in July that are 250% faster than current gen.

 

[jpiniero]

Gtx1160 priced are projected to be $299. A gtx1160 should be a little faster than Vega 56 but slightly slower than a Vega 64. The 1170 will be faster than a Vega 64 for $499.
I think AMD will have to decrease current prices drastically to compete.

$499 would be nice for the 1170... think it's more likely to be $599 or maybe $549. Basically add $100 to the original 10 series MSRP and you get where I think prices will be.

 

[SpaceBeer]

I think AMD could/will release little bit smaller chips with GDDR memory which wouldn't be much slower than new nVidia, at least in mid range. I.e. in my opinion Vega 44 could have higher clocks than Vega 56, and almost the same performance even with 30% less CU. Similar as with R9 390X and Fury (non-X). So such card could be quite competitive with 1160. And if they are competitive in $300 market, they can keep market share, since that is more than 80%. But we know earnings are in the remaining 20% due to (much) higher margins.

It also depends a lot on crypto market, but I think AMD will have enough resources to survive one more year in GPU (gaming) market. AMD will make some profit, but nVidia will probably make more money than ever

 

[happy medium]

$499 would be nice for the 1170... think it's more likely to be $599 or maybe $549. Basically add $100 to the original 10 series MSRP and you get where I think prices will be.

Actually add $50 to the gtx1070 msrp. That's about how much the high end has increased every 2 years.

 

[happy medium]

Why are you quoting wcftech? Might as well quote Mickey Mouse! And yeah Micky Mouse and Santa Clause confirmed 12nm new Nvidia GPU's in July that are 250% faster than current gen.

Its a news tech site that is right 70% of the time or just you" saying its gonna be".

I mean really where on earth are they saying Nvidia and 7nm?
Where are they saying that the prices are going up 200$ a performance tier?


I pick the news tech site.

Even if they are guessing, they will be a little off, and they are following Nvidia history, not " just saying"

 

[Grubbernaught]

1. Nvidia won't be releasing any new desktop GPU's anytime soon. Nvidia is skipping 12nm, that is more than obvious now, since if they weren't skipping it they would have been shipping their their xx70 and xx80 series already, GDDR6 has been available since February 2018, by now most memory manufacturers have it in plenty of supply, 12nm technology has been ready for over 6 months now, sampling up to one year before.

2. Even if Nvidia released new 12nm GPU's in the summer, there is NO WAY that a GTX 2070 would be faster than a GTX 1080ti. Okay? From 28nm to 16nm tsmc finfet process is over 50% more efficient, 16nm to 12nm you are looking at a basically refined 16nm process, with about 10 to 15% more efficient. Lets put it at best case scenario where they can extract 15% more performance at the same power envelope, where is the other 40% going to come from? GTX 1080ti is over 50% faster than a GTX 1070. How would a GTX 2070 reach GTX 1080ti levels if the node shrink gives at best 15% performance boost at same power?

I can totally see your point and it doesn't look like the performance could be there.

But I'd like to counterpoint with that there weren't that many architectural improvements that got the 1070 To 980ti level performance. That was almost entirely die shrink.

Perhaps architecture is where the big gains will come this gen. Although TitanV already disagrees.

I just think Nvidia are too good at hitting that x80ti --» xx70 performance path.

They need to make the x80 model about 15-20% faster than the current Ti to entice the rich Ti owners to upgrade.

They also need to fill the next performance band with the x70...So it just wouldn't make any sense for it not to come in almost exactly equal with a 1080ti at stock clocks.

Like 980Ti vs 1070
Or 780ti vs 970
Or 580 vs 670
Or 480 vs 470

You see where this is going.....

 

[Guru]

Its a news tech site that is right 70% of the time or just you" saying its gonna be".

I mean really where on earth are they saying Nvidia and 7nm?
Where are they saying that the prices are going up 200$ a performance tier?


I pick the news tech site.

Even if they are guessing, they will be a little off, and they are following Nvidia history, not " just saying"

I don't know wcftech to be right on more than 1%. With rumors flying left and right every day on that site, they could once in a while get something right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Under my advice a lot of people would have gotten cheap GPU's that they would have spend 8,7,6,5,4, etc... months gaming on. Instead they waited for Volta that was coming in Early 2018, then it was Ampere coming in March, then it was Turning coming in April, etc... now its the end of May and no new gpu's in sight. In those 8 months GPU prices have skyrocketed and buying a GTX 1060 6GB or RX 580 8GB cost as much as getting a GTX 1070 back in February before prices took an insane level.

 

[jpiniero]

Actually add $50 to the gtx1070 msrp. That's about how much the high end has increased every 2 years.

I'm also taking into account the increase in memory prices. Now I don't know how much GDDR6 is going to cost but I imagine it won't be cheaper than GDDR5.

 

[tviceman]

Gtx1160 priced are projected to be $299. A gtx1160 should be a little faster than Vega 56 but slightly slower than a Vega 64. The 1170 will be faster than a Vega 64 for $499.
I think AMD will have to decrease current prices drastically to compete.

If we're looking at a full generational increase (50% performance improvement), then it will be slighty faster at 1080p and dead even at 1440p vs. Vega 56, but with half the power consumption. I see prices starting out at $649 for the 1180/2080, $499 for the 1170/2070, and $349 for the 1160/2060. If there was competition and/or no shortage due to mining, prices would probably be $50 lower across the board but Nvidia will easily be able to get away with higher prices until AMD can compete with the low end / midrange again.