What would happen to AMD if Nvidia release new cards soon?

[Head1985]

If we're looking at a full generational increase (50% performance improvement), then it will be slighty faster at 1080p and dead even at 1440p vs. Vega 56, but with half the power consumption. I see prices starting out at $649 for the 1180/2080, $499 for the 1170/2070, and $349 for the 1160/2060. If there was competition and/or no shortage due to mining, prices would probably be $50 lower across the board but Nvidia will easily be able to get away with higher prices until AMD can compete with the low end / midrange again.

If there is competetion and no mining prices will be like in fermi days.
Full high-end GPU(today TITANXP) for 500-600USD-Probably renamed back to GTX1080.
GTX1080 will be renamed back to x60TI card and cost accordingly-250-300usd+-
GTX1070 will be just x60 card-200-250usd
and so on..
No more Nvidia would have 70% margins and it will be again 30%.They will stil make money even with those prices...

 

[TeknoBug]

Probably nothing, they'll have to lower the price of the RX Vega 56 and 64 though, I have been wanting to get a Vega 56 but the launch price didn't make sense, and nor did the miners inflation price, and it still doesn't make sense to buy one yet.

 

[CatMerc]

Fudzilla claims the Navi will be a mid range GPU at about 1080 performance. So unless NVIDIA does an unusually large jump for their x60 cards, would probably do just like 580 vs 1060 does now.

 

[happy medium]

Fudzilla claims the Navi will be a mid range GPU at about 1080 performance. So unless NVIDIA does an unusually large jump for their x60 cards, would probably do just like 580 vs 1060 does now.

Navi is releasing in 2019, I thought.

 

[CatMerc]

Navi is releasing in 2019, I thought.

That's right yes.

 

[jackstar7]

To answer the question in the subject, I would guess that the AMD hype machine would crank up and get people hoping that whatever they produce next will finally be competitive. I know I certainly want that to be true, but it's been a long time since the 79-- series when it was still more of a competition.

Maybe they'll find some way to improve Freesync to the point where you don't need powerful graphics at all... just monitor magic.

 

[tviceman]

If there is competetion and no mining prices will be like in fermi days.
Full high-end GPU(today TITANXP) for 500-600USD-Probably renamed back to GTX1080.
GTX1080 will be renamed back to x60TI card and cost accordingly-250-300usd+-
GTX1070 will be just x60 card-200-250usd
and so on..
No more Nvidia would have 70% margins and it will be again 30%.They will stil make money even with those prices...

It will never be like that, ever again. The tables are completely reversed in engineering and all of Nvidia's hard work over the years to develop HPC is now paying off in spades. Nvidia has a massive perf/w advantage and noticeable perf/mm2 advantage. AMD's biggest and best chip is 60% bigger than GP104 and consumes 60% more to be anywhere from 5% slower to 10% faster. Nvidia is releasing new generations faster than AMD is now, too. Maxwell came before Fiji and Pascal came before Polaris & Vega. Volta came out almost immediately after Vega and now Turing is coming soon, months ahead of anything that AMD has in the pipeline.

It's an onslaught of uphill battles that AMD is losing ground on with each release.

 

[Glo.]

Navi is fully scalable GPU architecture.

Although it may be small GPU, like 230 mm2 die sized, because of its ability to be packed into multi GPU configs, just like Threadripper there is no need for AMD to be worried about not being competitive, with Nvidia.

All what they need is 10% higher performance that GTX 1080@ 125W power consumption.

2 GPUs will be easily enough for 250W TDP, at double that performance.

 

[Saylick]

Navi is fully scalable GPU architecture.

Although it may be small GPU, like 230 mm2 die sized, because of its ability to be packed into multi GPU configs, just like Threadripper there is no need for AMD to be worried about not being competitive, with Nvidia.

All what they need is 10% higher performance that GTX 1080@ 125W power consumption.

2 GPUs will be easily enough for 250W TDP, at double that performance.

By that time nVidia will also be on 7nm and their next generation design will probably be at least twice as fast as the 1080 for only 180W TDP and a die size ~350 mm2.

 

[Glo.]

By that time nVidia will also be on 7nm and their next generation design will probably be at least twice as fast as the 1080 for only 180W TDP and a die size ~350 mm2.

I would not go that far with predictions.

 

[jpiniero]

It's possible that AMD can't get Navi's scaling to work properly and you will only see the one die version.

 

[Qwertilot]

I would not go that far with predictions.

It isn't far though, it's simply expecting NV to keep their current rates of improvement over time up. Should be 'easy' for them to shrink to 7nm for their next, next generation. After that is much murkier of course.

 

[Glo.]

It isn't far though, it's simply expecting NV to keep their current rates of improvement over time up. Should be 'easy' for them to shrink to 7nm for their next, next generation. After that is much murkier of course.

If they are going to make 12 nm GPUs - don't expect that they will next year go for 7 nm.

If they are going for 7 nm this year, already - don't expect groundbreaking changes. The shrink will allow them to push out the core amount, and clock speeds.

This is why I posted: I would not go that far with predictions.

With both scenarios: its wise to expect typical 65% increase in performance, over previous generation.

 

[Saylick]

If they are going to make 12 nm GPUs - don't expect that they will next year go for 7 nm.

If they are going for 7 nm this year, already - don't expect groundbreaking changes. The shrink will allow them to push out the core amount, and clock speeds.

This is why I posted: I would not go that far with predictions.

With both scenarios: its wise to expect typical 65% increase in performance, over previous generation.

From what I understand, AMD will move to a 7nm Vega GPU this year with some architectural enhancements but is essentially mostly a die shrink and its associated benefits. nVidia will counter with 12nm GPUs which should allow them to maintain their Perf/W lead over AMD, albeit probably not as greatly as it is today.

When AMD moves onto Navi, their next generational scalable GPU architecture, I fully expect nVidia to have moved onto 7nm GPUs (mid-2019).

TSMC's 7nm will be a true full node shrink beyond their 16nm FF+ process so I don't see why it would be hard for nVidia to come out with a 104-class 7nm GPU with twice the performance and roughly similar die size and power characteristics of the GTX 1080 to compete against Navi.

 

[jpiniero]

From what I understand, AMD will move to a 7nm Vega GPU this year with some architectural enhancements but is essentially mostly a die shrink and its associated benefits. nVidia will counter with 12nm GPUs which should allow them to maintain their Perf/W lead over AMD, albeit probably not as greatly as it is today.

Vega 20 IIRC is aimed at HPC exclusively and will be priced as such although they could release another FE like card. I imagine they will be able to get higher clocks but unless things changed it is still 64 CUs and the transistor budget increase is used mainly by improving the DP to 1/2 and AI/tensor cores.