What's up with spike in AMD'S stock?

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Aug 11, 2008
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Yea, I remember when it was everybody's darling at 40 dollars plus in 2006, and then they got "conroe'd". They have a lot less further to drop now, and I think there is a good chance they can move up, but if Zen and/or Polaris flops, they could also go under. And if you look at the last 5 years for instance, it is still lower than the 4.00 range it was trading in a couple of years ago.
 
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Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
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citavia.blog.de
That's so true. It wont go under 20$. Well...it wont go under 8$. Ok then, 4$....2$
Frontal, pariental and temporal lobes in the brain*) might help here to see a value in a company even if there is none. Oh, and many (maybe less experienced or freshly "trained") traders might look at the charts and find that stock at the lower end of the Bollinger bands and buy it. Did anyone hear the term "oversold"?

BTW, http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...rg-report-intel-may-license-graphics-patents/

Right after this report the stock fell by a few cents and some big trade (nearly 1M shares) happened at those levels.
[live updated chart removed]


*) They are assumed to be involved in religious belief, which I'd also apply to the mechanism of hope, which in combination with invested money might turn into greed.
 
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poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
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AMD is slowly turning out a profit so of course stock will rise. I expect it to rise more later in the year when they release their new products. AMD is at the bottom of the hill right now. There is no more down left, up is the only direction.

That's not exactly how stocks work. Often times the future of a company is factored into its stock price. Case in point: TESLA & Apple. Tesla hardly makes ANY money, it's not even expected to be profitable until 3-4 years later, yet it's stock is through the roof! Apple on the other hand makes money EVERY quarter and BEATS the last quarter, but its stock is stagnant cause the future looks uninspiratipnal with just new iPhones & new Ipads, so investors don't see much room for growth.

AMD is like Tesla now, with its VR announcement, Zen CPUs on the horizon (they don't even have to beat Intel CPUs in performance, just offer a CPU that can come close at lower price point ), & its potential deal with Intel to license its GPU patents, we see its stock rising...it hasn't even made a dime from any of these but ppl see potential & thus invest.
 
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CHADBOGA

Platinum Member
Mar 31, 2009
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But they couldn't have licensed experience, working toolchains, manpower, nearly finished products, exclusive use of tech, etc. this way. Facebook could simply have licensed Oculus Rift. Are they stupid?
How are other companies who thrive from licensing, managing it?

Are you suggesting that by paying twice ATI's market value, AMD spent wisely?
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
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How are other companies who thrive from licensing, managing it?

Are you suggesting that by paying twice ATI's market value, AMD spent wisely?
I think for Fusion and the increasing level of integration incl. all that coherency stuff, process equalization, taking over of design and automated synthesis methods for CPUs (Cat cores first) and the manpower having years of experience doing that, they had to go further than typical IP block licensees.

They were paying too much goodwill, maybe based on too optimistic roadmaps or simply the fear to get no GPU biz at all.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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AMD could have saved billions with licensing. Instead ATI was one of the reasons that killed of big parts of the company. And today, RTG isn't even branded AMD anymore and it looks like the next sell/spinoff to get money. And its value is a fraction of the purchase cost.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
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AMD could have saved billions with licensing. Instead ATI was one of the reasons that killed of big parts of the company. And today, RTG isn't even branded AMD anymore and it looks like the next sell/spinoff to get money. And its value is a fraction of the purchase cost.

Not really. Intel hasn't just licensed from NVidia and then plonked a Kepler down on their chips. They have spent massive sums of money building up their own internal GPU design teams and driver teams, and even after all that effort their GPU designs (and drivers) are way behind AMD and NVidia. The licensing just gives them legal cover. AMD would have had to build up a similarly sized GPU team- which would be even harder, as they didn't have the small head-start in graphics which Intel had.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Not really. Intel hasn't just licensed from NVidia and then plonked a Kepler down on their chips. They have spent massive sums of money building up their own internal GPU design teams and driver teams, and even after all that effort their GPU designs (and drivers) are way behind AMD and NVidia. The licensing just gives them legal cover. AMD would have had to build up a similarly sized GPU team- which would be even harder, as they didn't have the small head-start in graphics which Intel had.

I think it makes little financial/strategic sense for Intel to license GPU patents from AMD to give them a cash infusion. If Zen is really going to be the Intel killer that Mark Papermaster claims (yes, he actually said on an investor conference that he expects Zen based CPUs to offer better perf/TCO than Intel), then why should Intel fund this potentially huge disruption to its business?

NVIDIA isn't really a direct competitor to Intel outside of Xeon Phi (and really, this business is tiny to Intel, so who cares). Makes more sense to license NVIDIA's patent war-chest than AMD's, IMO.

Smells too much like pump & dump to me.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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Not really. Intel hasn't just licensed from NVidia and then plonked a Kepler down on their chips. They have spent massive sums of money building up their own internal GPU design teams and driver teams, and even after all that effort their GPU designs (and drivers) are way behind AMD and NVidia. The licensing just gives them legal cover. AMD would have had to build up a similarly sized GPU team- which would be even harder, as they didn't have the small head-start in graphics which Intel had.

They havent spend 5.5 billion

And AMD could avoid the interest conflict between APUs and GPUs.

ATI was simply a bad purchase. Specially for a company where CPU always comes first.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
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They havent spend 5.5 billion

And AMD could avoid the interest conflict between APUs and GPUs.

ATI was simply a bad purchase. Specially for a company where CPU always comes first.

Okay this is true, they definitely overpaid But they would have had to build up a graphics division somehow, or paid e.g. PowerVR a per-chip fee to integrate their IP.
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
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Or it could just be a power play to force nVidia into a better deal on renegotiation. I would see it as a real humiliation to AMD if they leased their supposedly best edge to Intel. Fusion is the Future, etc, but we will license it to our competitor? It would seem an admission that either it was not that great or they could not execute it properly.

AMD needs the revenue from monetizing their ip to stay alive.
 

rgallant

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2007
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They havent spend 5.5 billion

And AMD could avoid the interest conflict between APUs and GPUs.

ATI was simply a bad purchase. Specially for a company where CPU always comes first.


this always comes up with out any mention of the 2008 melt down. [like it did not happen]
amd was just too small and just took on a big purchase to get bail outs imo
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,517
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I am contemplating on getting in on HTC for a long run. The vive is about to launch and allbeit it would have been much more fun ½ a year a go, give it a few years it might return to past glory. Ill give it even odds at being at least doubled in two years.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
I am contemplating on getting in on HTC for a long run. The vive is about to launch and allbeit it would have been much more fun ½ a year a go, give it a few years it might return to past glory. Ill give it even odds at being at least doubled in two years.

Or the Vive doesn't sell after its initial burst of early adopters, and HTC's downward spiral continues...

Valve have taken all the glory (and software sales) for themselves, while lumbering HTC with all of the risks and liabilities.
 

Mahigan

Senior member
Aug 22, 2015
573
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So the stock market hit bottom in mid Feb, but AMD stock has jumped 25% since then, way more than the average recovery (11% just today). Any reason for this that I'm missing? Are ppl really that optimistic about AMD?
VR.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,517
13,090
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Or the Vive doesn't sell after its initial burst of early adopters, and HTC's downward spiral continues...

Valve have taken all the glory (and software sales) for themselves, while lumbering HTC with all of the risks and liabilities.

I am one of those nutjobs that believe VR is gonna take off.
 

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
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AMD would have died by now if they didn't buy ATI. All that they would have by now in underperforming CPUs that require a GPU. And if they did try to develop a GPU, they would have had to pay well over a billion in licensing fees since 2006.

Their big mistake is that they tried to develop APUs too early and design a CPU that needed software to make use of the GPU.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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I was looking at the historical data, and the stock "spiked" to around 3 dollars in late December, but then fell back to the 2 dollar range right away. I think that spike was based on hopes of a buyout. Lets see if this "spike" can hold at a higher level, or if it again falls back to the 2 dollar level.
 

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
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guess I sold too early at 2.65

I assume AMD continuing rise has to do with short covering due to the market being bullish on AMD's influence with VR unless people know something positive is going to happen between Intel & AMD for graphic IP licensing

I don't see VR being that impactful just yet given the hardware costs of the headsets
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,517
13,090
136
I am contemplating on getting in on HTC for a long run. The vive is about to launch and allbeit it would have been much more fun ½ a year a go, give it a few years it might return to past glory. Ill give it even odds at being at least doubled in two years.

Anyone managed to get in back then? It was at ~60

Now ~96
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/2498:TT


I didnt get in, was in the process of switching banks .. Now i am luke-warm on it.. will be on the lookout for a dip though.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
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Anyone managed to get in back then? It was at ~60

Now ~96
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/2498:TT


I didnt get in, was in the process of switching banks .. Now i am luke-warm on it.. will be on the lookout for a dip though.

I don't even know if my broker lets me buy stocks that aren't traded on the US exchanges, at least not easily.

But I should say "good call" here. 60 -> 96 is a significant rise.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
AMD may have spiked quite a bit. But it has also lost 15% since computex.
 
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