When can we expect AMD 290 supply situation to improve?

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Pneumothorax

Golden Member
Nov 4, 2002
1,182
23
81
I've always been suspicious about how some people here justified the heavily inflated prices (way way beyond MSRP on 290X, 290, and 280X) as being due to mining. The % of people who purchase new GPU's for mining is likely to be absolutely miniscule compared to the % of people who purchase new GPU's for gaming. That said, from a marketing standpoint, AMD was able to get favorable reviews by setting a relatively low MSRP at launch, but that MSRP means nothing if no one does anything to enforce it. Hopefully reviewers will pay more attention to real-world pricing trends moving forward.

When the real world average selling price is handily exceeding the price of the Nvidia equivalent it's most definitely due to mining. If it was just gaming then the price would be on par to nvidia. Don't tell me it's Mantle that has people lining up buying these cards at inflated prices.
 

JumBie

Golden Member
May 2, 2011
1,645
1
71
Clearly mining is not the only issue here: http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=36061946&postcount=14 . And no, there is no evidence about exactly how many of these 290X/290 cards have been sold in the first place (these being the two cards that have the most inflated real world pricing in the USA). Even if 80% (which is a made up number to begin with) of the people who buy these cards buy them for mining, that doesn't tell you how much total supply there was to begin with.

Edit: I take that back, it looks like 280X cards also have equally ridiculous inflated real world prices right now at Newegg. One can get GTX 780 ACX edition for less than R9 280X at Newegg!

I won't even begin to post reference articles to support my "theory", they are readily available with a quick Google search. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that a shortage of 280,290,290x gpus and a HIGH resale price of 7950, and 7970 gpus, is certainly due to the mining craze, just go the Crypto mining thread here on Anandtech to get a good idea. Retailers are out of stock and when they do get stock in about 80% goes to back orders, and the rest are snatched up as soon as they are listed in stock. Don't tell me this is gamers putting in orders and buying up cards as soon as stock comes in. Some retailers have even explicitly stated that many sales are multi gpu sales. That statement alone gives further proof to the theory.
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,505
2,249
136
OP....Not sure.

On another note sbopblt shipped my TriX today. Ordered on 1-12-14 I believe it was. $470 shipped so I can't complain about the wait too much.

Demand is greater than supply....Combo of many factors would be my guess.
 

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
Seems like you would be incorrect. The GPU supply chain doesn't appear to be able to instantly ramp up production.

That is pretty obtuse.

Is it really that challenging to look at whats going on with AMD pricing and do anything you can to keep from admitting that they are selling out due to demand and not a supply shortage?

Again, supply shortage due to the demand. Not the other way around, ignore if it keeps you from having to admit AMD is seeing success in GPU sales.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,227
36
91
That is pretty obtuse.

Is it really that challenging to look at whats going on with AMD pricing and do anything you can to keep from admitting that they are selling out due to demand and not a supply shortage?

Again, supply shortage due to the demand. Not the other way around, ignore if it keeps you from having to admit AMD is seeing success in GPU sales.


 

ams23

Senior member
Feb 18, 2013
907
0
0
Is it really that challenging to look at whats going on with AMD pricing and do anything you can to keep from admitting that they are selling out due to demand and not a supply shortage?

Don't be silly, of course there is a supply shortage of these AMD GPU's! That is beyond question. We know that is due in part to mining. The only question is if it is also due to component shortages, which is clearly backed up by VisionTek's statement. Note that the AMD GPU 290X/290/280X street prices were already inflated one month ago, but now they are inflated even worse (which backs up VisionTek's post).
 

Gloomy

Golden Member
Oct 12, 2010
1,469
21
81
If there were component shortages then Nvidia cards would be affected no?

Unless Nvidia cards are just not selling in the same volume.

I'm not sure, but it seems like AMD was sucker-punched by the demand. :|
 

ICDP

Senior member
Nov 15, 2012
707
0
0
Don't be silly, of course there is a supply shortage of these AMD GPU's! That is beyond question. We know that is due in part to mining. The only question is if it is also due to component shortages, which is clearly backed up by VisionTek's statement. Note that the AMD GPU 290X/290/280X street prices were already inflated one month ago, but now they are inflated even worse (which backs up VisionTek's post).

Prices in Europe for R9 290/X cards have remained at, or even below MSRP since release. If there was a component shortage then Europe would be seeing supply shortages coupled with price increases as well as the US.

Some facts.

  1. There is plenty of supply and prices are still at MSRP in Europe and other parts of the world.
  2. The massive retailer price gouging is centred in the US.
  3. GPU price hikes and supply shortages have not hit Nvidia at all.
All of the above indicates US market forces rather than worldwide supply shortages.
 
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Pneumothorax

Golden Member
Nov 4, 2002
1,182
23
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Prices in Europe for R9 290/X cards have remained at, or even below MSRP since release. If there was a component shortage then Europe would be seeing supply shortages coupled with price increases as well as the US.

The fact there is plenty of supply and prices are still at MSRP here in Europe and other places in the world, points to a U.S. Cryptocoin craze. The fact the massive retailer price gouging is almost exclusively centred in the US seems to be ignored.

Is the price of electricity is what's keeping Euro's out of the crypto coin craze?
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
If there were component shortages then Nvidia cards would be affected no?

Unless Nvidia cards are just not selling in the same volume.

AMD simply cut their orders too drasticly in Q4. Its just a logistics flaw. Nothing to do with nVidia or other components.

nVidia also gained marketshare in Q4.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Is the price of electricity is what's keeping Euro's out of the crypto coin craze?

Its essentially only north america where there is a mining craze, not so much in the rest of the world.

Electricity just makes it outright unprofitable in some places tho.
 

ams23

Senior member
Feb 18, 2013
907
0
0
The fact there is plenty of supply and prices are still at MSRP here in Europe and other places in the world, points to a U.S. Cryptocoin craze.

That may be true, but why in the world (no pun intended) would a "cryptocoin craze" only affect the USA? Do you have any statistics to show that cryptocoin mining is mainly a USA-only phenomena? Why would VisionTek state that there are shortages in components if there really are no shortages? Why wouldn't these USA-centric AIB vendors dramatically increase their supply if demand was unusually high starting two months ago?

At the end of the day, almost anyone who bought a 280X, 290, or 290X for gaming purposes from Newegg last month got hosed, and anyone who buys a 280X, 290, or 290X for gaming purposes from Newegg this month is getting hosed even worse, due to the outrageously high street prices in the USA.
 
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OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,227
36
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If there were component shortages then Nvidia cards would be affected no?

Unless Nvidia cards are just not selling in the same volume. :|

Nvidia is moving cards at a very good rate, but they obviously do not have the allocation issues that AMD has due to mining. AMD was still cutting TSMC orders in Q4, so any unexpected uptick in 28nm chip orders also has to take into account the additional VRAM, which isn't necessarily abundant right now:

Well, after months of poking and prodding, I was finally able to get some information on the shortage.

The first run of cards in November were bought up quickly, mostly by LiteCoin/BitCoin miners and the like. The second run was also bought up quickly in early December, though they couldn't ship as many cards as they wanted to.

The current problem, and the problem that has plagued them since end of December to now, is memory chip problems. They found problems with almost every batch of chips up until recently.

http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/answers/id-2020529/amd-gpu-shortage.html#.



And to verify this information:

The DRAM stock shortage caused by a factory fire in China last September looks set to continue during the first three months of 2014.

http://www.pcr-online.biz/news/read/dram-shortage-to-continue-throughout-q1-2014/032824


And even though Hynix capacity as been mostly restored, they are putting out product that is being returned:

Production of SK Hynix' DRAM products was hit after a fire broke out at its fab in Wuxi, China in September 2013. Though the company has reiterated it already resumed full operations at the fab in November as planned, the actual output has reportedly not returned to normal levels. The fire-hit DRAM fab is suffering unsatisfactory yield rates, with some PC vendors rejecting some of its shipments due to poor quality of the chips, the sources observed. As SK Hynix' DRAM supply remains short of demand from its PC clients

http://eesage.com/pages/22092469-dram-supplies-to-remain-tight-through-2014
 

ICDP

Senior member
Nov 15, 2012
707
0
0
That may be true, but why in the world (no pun intended) would a "cryptocoin craze" only affect the USA? Do you have any statistics to show that cryptocoin mining is mainly a USA-only phenomena? Why would VisionTek state that there are shortages in components if there really are no shortages? Why wouldn't these USA-centric AIB vendors dramatically increase their supply if demand was unusually high starting two months ago?

At the end of the day, almost anyone who bought a 280X, 290, or 290X for gaming purposes from Newegg last month got hosed, and anyone who buys a 280X, 290, or 290X for gaming purposes from Newegg this month is getting hosed even worse.

Sorry, I edited my post to remove that as it seemed silly after I typed it.

The cryptocoin craze did hit the rest of the world, but clearly the price gouging bastard retailers in the US are total mongrels compared to the rest of the world.
 

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,134
1,411
136
It is 100% a supply shortage because of miners. I cant fathom why any gamer would pay $599 for a 280x here in Canada from E-tailers, I have found 1 retailer in my extensive search selling for $365, but I'm not sure what to do since next gen is around the corner it would seem.

This current market absolutely bonkers, I'm not even sure the 280x is worth buying at close to MSRP anymore, maybe a few months ago before the boom.

I think I'm going to sit tight, if AMD does not address the mining issue next gen then I'm hopping to the green side. This whole situation has made me sour towards these speculative miners.
 

Haserath

Senior member
Sep 12, 2010
793
1
81
While some local shops have them, cheapest is around 20% over MSRP.

I am considering waiting for highend build on 20nm tech. I can live with 6950.

20nm looks to be expensive..


The graph is also for the A17 which is to be released in 2015. We might end up with similar transistor counts and prices...
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,362
5,032
136
One of our members here has two of these racks hashing away in his (large) garage with parts for 2 more arriving:
http://imgur.com/LgWH9y6

That's 72 Radeon 290X cards, if you're counting. And just one of our members.
 

JumBie

Golden Member
May 2, 2011
1,645
1
71
One of our members here has two of these racks hashing away in his (large) garage with parts for 2 more arriving:
http://imgur.com/LgWH9y6

That's 72 Radeon 290X cards, if you're counting. And just one of our members.
This is what I was trying to get at. These cards are on back order and most of them are multi card orders. This leaves almost nothing left for gamers, as anything in stock is instantly picked up by miners once again. Its a vicious cycle, and wont end until all coins crash, as the more the merrier in the cryptocoin mining world.
 

Soulkeeper

Diamond Member
Nov 23, 2001
6,713
142
106
Or untill ASICs come out that are better alternatives, which happened with bitcoin.
People were selling radeons cheap all over the internet once bitcoin ASICs started shipping and the benefit of GPUs dimminished.
Now that alternatives to bitcoin allow GPUs to be the best option again ...
We can consider this cryptocoin craze 2.0 in a way

https://axablends.com/merchants-accepting-bitcoin/litecoin-discussion/litecoin-scrypt-asic-miners/
Here are some shipping ETAs for ASIC alternatives, once those ship our video card price will start to be more normal again
pending a crypto craze 3.0 :/

Unless of course GPU supply can really meet the demand ...
 
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Soulkeeper

Diamond Member
Nov 23, 2001
6,713
142
106
Another factor that I wonder about is the impact of phones and consoles all being 28nm.
Seems like a lot of stuff has come out at 28nm to compete for manufacturing capacity over the past several months.
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,362
5,032
136
Or untill ASICs come out that are better alternatives, which happened with bitcoin.
People were selling radeons cheap all over the internet once bitcoin ASICs started shipping and the benefit of GPUs dimminished.
Now that alternatives to bitcoin allow GPUs to be the best option again ...
We can consider this cryptocoin craze 2.0 in a way

https://axablends.com/merchants-accepting-bitcoin/litecoin-discussion/litecoin-scrypt-asic-miners/
Here are some shipping ETAs for ASIC alternatives, once those ship our video card price will start to be more normal again
pending a crypto craze 3.0 :/

Unless of course GPU supply can really meet the demand ...

No, all that will happen is 3.0 will start with a new algorithm that is ASIC resistant. We are already seeing several novel new cryptos attempting to move away from scrypt so that they are ahead of the ASIC curve (e.g. Vertcoin/VTC).

The only things that would cause prices to normalize:
1) Massive increase in supply
2) Massive decrease in price of BTC, and therefore all crypto currencies which are soft-pegged to the value of BTC
and/or
3) Multi-government intervention
 
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