Discussion When will Putin invade?

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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,305
10,804
136




As a related aside I've started fully powering down my PC's anytime they are un-attended for more than a few minutes even though they're pretty locked down.

Alternatively I suggest disconnecting from the internet at the very least for now if you're not around .... also disable any kind of WOL.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,212
3,623
126
As an IT guy by trade, this one interests me. Will it suddenly be considered to be "OK" to pirate Microsoft software in Russia now that you can't buy it legally? Or, will it cause Russian IT folks to start using open source alternatives instead?

Either one of these options could really hurt the US software business. Once you come up with a free alternative to a Microsoft/Oracle/Adobe/whatever product that works "good enough", it's going to be really hard to get that business back.
This is quite old data, but if Russia already pirates ~73% of the software used there, then I think your point has long since passed.

Edit: updated with more recent estimates 59% piracy rate: https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1145116/software-piracy-rate-forecast-in-russia
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,305
10,804
136
Once you come up with a free alternative to a Microsoft/Oracle/Adobe/whatever product that works "good enough", it's going to be really hard to get that business back.

Plenty of these already exist and M$/etc still sell a crap-ton of overpriced office software/suites. (The last version of Office I actually owned was 2000 lol)

I do agree however that it will cost M$/US software companies some money.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
This is quite old data, but if Russia already pirates ~73% of the software used there, then I think your point has long since passed.

Edit: updated with more recent estimates 59% piracy rate: https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1145116/software-piracy-rate-forecast-in-russia

Sure, piracy has always been a big problem for Microsoft. I'm just curious what the response would be if Russia suddenly decided that pirating the software was legal (because, screw you Microsoft and your mostly US shareholders, that's why!), and even the companies who were legitimately purchasing the software stop doing it. Does Microsoft retaliate by trying to remotely deactivate systems?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,212
3,623
126
Sure, piracy has always been a big problem for Microsoft. I'm just curious what the response would be if Russia suddenly decided that pirating the software was legal (because, screw you Microsoft and your mostly US shareholders, that's why!), and even the companies who were legitimately purchasing the software stop doing it. Does Microsoft retaliate by trying to remotely deactivate systems?
It would be hilarious if Microsoft does do that. But, I'm pretty sure I've heard that Russia has been trying to move away from Microsoft. Here is a homebrew operating system their army supposedly uses:
.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,305
10,804
136
Considering how easy it is to re-activate most software after it's been "turned off" for whatever reason I doubt it would be worth the effort.

If you have some knowledge, full access to the code and no compunction about breaking the law it's almost a none-issue on the user-end.

Of course the more complex the software is (like an OS) and the more mission-critical the computing job, the worse an idea this becomes.
 
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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,305
10,804
136
Given their hacking talents, they can probably just crack their Windows install anyway....

All you need are "script-kiddie" level "hacking skills" to crack most M$ software for example ... again provided you have full access.

Even so anything that anyone can do to disrupt those wannabe-USSR M-fvcker's day to day is fine by me!



*(apologies to the regular Russians who will be hurt by this)
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,337
2,355
136
Apparently Microsoft is planning to suspend selling new products to Russia:


As an IT guy by trade, this one interests me. Will it suddenly be considered to be "OK" to pirate Microsoft software in Russia now that you can't buy it legally? Or, will it cause Russian IT folks to start using open source alternatives instead?

Either one of these options could really hurt the US software business. Once you come up with a free alternative to a Microsoft/Oracle/Adobe/whatever product that works "good enough", it's going to be really hard to get that business back.
Losing what business? Russia has to be a tiny part of Microsoft's overall revenue. If anything, maybe MS cares about losing Azure revenue, but I don't know how much Russian firms are spending on AWS/Azure/GCE etc.

China has approx. 10 times the population of Russia, and Bill Gates once famously said he'd rather China pirate Windows (XP) than use another desktop OS. If Gates didn't care about "losses" inflicted by hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers, Satya Nadella isn't losing sleep over software licensing in Russia.

Also note that MS is suspending new sales; they aren't kicking anyone off Azure or revoking existing licensing agreements.

OTOH backbone Cogent Communications is terminating its business with Russian customers effective today. That's actually fairly big news.

 

highland145

Lifer
Oct 12, 2009
43,537
5,945
136
Learned this today...

Once Ukraine lost control of the territory (Crimea) in 2014, it shut off the water supply of the North Crimean Canal which supplies 85% of the peninsula's freshwater needs from the Dnieper river, the nation's main waterway.

Russia blew the dam 1st thing.
 
Reactions: Captante

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
The cynic in me wonders if the "West" is scrambling to help Ukraine because they didn't expect them to last this long either.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,914
20,203
136
The cynic in me wonders if the "West" is scrambling to help Ukraine because they didn't expect them to last this long either.

I think this is definitely part of it.

I think the two main reasons the West is united is because the Biden administration did excellent by sharing top US intelligence data for some time which telegraphed Putin's intentions - think of it as good international marketing. And it was built up over time. There are definitely some who would say sharing such intel is not a good idea, but they weighed the pros and cons and decided it would help create goodwill for Ukraine and deprive Putin of making up his own propaganda for why he was going in, to the point Putin had to babble some nonsense about neo-Nazis and jibber jabber that nobody in the west could swallow. Of course Republicans and right wing media said Biden was being hysterical and Putin isn't such a bad guy and their cult leader said Putin was a genius, but the Biden administration stayed true to their message and they got it 100% right, Putin invaded and showed how full of shit and evil he is.

The other reason is yes, the Ukrainian spirit and fight and what appears to be Russian miscalculations is the other reason. If Ukraine capitulated in a couple days, it would have been a different story. So no hardcore Ukrainians, then it would not be like this kind of response

Those two things combined are the reason the West is so united right now.
 
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Reactions: Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,834
8,302
136
I think this is definitely part of it.

I think the two main reasons the West is united is because the Biden administration did excellent by sharing top US intelligence data for some time which telegraphed Putin's intentions - think of it as good international marketing. And it was built up over time. There are definitely some who would say sharing such intel is not a good idea, but they weighed the pros and cons and decided it would help create goodwill for Ukraine and deprive Putin of making up his own propaganda for why he was going in, to the point Putin had to babble some nonsense about neo-Nazis and jibber jabber that nobody in the west could swallow. Of course Republicans and right wing media said Biden was being hysterical and Putin isn't such a bad guy and their cult leader said Putin was a genius, but the Biden administration stayed true to their message and they got it 100% right, Putin invaded and showed how full of shit and evil he is.

The other reason is yes, the Ukrainian spirit and fight and what appears to be Russian miscalculations is the other reason. If Ukraine capitulated in a couple days, it would have been a different story. So no hardcore Ukrainians, then it would not be like this kind of response

Those two things combined are the reason the West is so united right now.
Biden and Blinken were sooooooooo on this. The satellite shots of the build-up of soviet troops and armament were shown virtually daily on TV news for weeks. It was CLEAR to me that the invasion was coming. Russia said it was exercises and they had no intention to invade but that was bullshit. They aren't that rich a country where they can afford to do shit like that just for whatever. They had every intention to invade and it was clearly hugely dangerous. Also, Biden's administration was openly and repeatedly warning for IIRC at least a couple of weeks that Russia was conjuring propaganda, instigating machinations to falsely accuse Ukraine for whatever in an effort to justify the invasion. Biden's administration set the stage for a unified extra-Russia response to the unprovoked invasion. It was clear even before the invasion that Russia's intention is to absorb Ukraine back into Russia, pure and simple. Aleksandr Dugin's Foundation of Geopolitics, the playbook of the Kremlin for policy, has this as just one of Russia's ambitions.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126

UsandThem

Elite Member
May 4, 2000
16,068
7,380
146
So it appears that Nvidia, Visa, and Mastercard are cutting ties with the Russian market over this invasion.

However, it appears that some companies like Coca Cola still can't walk away from the money they make in that market.


 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
So it appears that Nvidia, Visa, and Mastercard are cutting ties with the Russian market over this invasion.

However, it appears that some companies like Coca Cola still can't walk away from the money they make in that market.


Coke is chronic poison anyway. Dental troubles and a slow path to a heart attack.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,316
2,923
126
Coke is chronic poison anyway. Dental troubles and a slow path to a heart attack.
Coke has 239 grams of sugar in a 2-liter bottle. 20 years ago, I worked with someone in their mid 20s that drank one of those each day. I figured he'd have health problems eventually. Turns out I was right. Now overweight with many health problems.

I stay away from sugar sodas. The zero sugar ones I'll have a few times a month.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,898
12,365
126
www.anyf.ca
Coke has 239 grams of sugar in a 2-liter bottle. 20 years ago, I worked with someone in their mid 20s that drank one of those each day. I figured he'd have health problems eventually. Turns out I was right. Now overweight with many health problems.

I stay away from sugar sodas. The zero sugar ones I'll have a few times a month.

Pepsi is my weakness. I can go a whole week without it, but then I get that craving once and I'm back on it for a while. I do limit to 1 can per day, sometimes a small bottle if I order food but still not great.

At one point I was pounding down like 5+ per day though.
 
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