Discussion When will Putin invade?

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GrumpyMan

Diamond Member
May 14, 2001
5,778
262
136
Putin knows real sanctions like being thrown out of the SWIFT banking system aren't coming because that is how commerce for oil and gas to all countries works. Throw them out of that and Europe would lose half of the oil and gas imports. And, the US would loose the 2 to 4 million barrels a day we import from Russia. Knowing that Biden killed his own oil industry he knows Biden can't do this before the mid-terms and NATO must have their energy supplies.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
58,521
12,816
136
Biden won't start a literal WW3 over Ukraine.... BUT it may start anyway without his help. This is the most volatile situation the world has found itself in, in a long LONG time.

Everyone should be extremely concerned.

Remember that Mike Tyson quote about plans and getting punched in the mouth? (also refer back to how Germany behaved at the start of WW2.... if I lived in Poland I'd be crapping my pants)
I was hoping just the previous admin and pandemic would be enough highly notable historic events for us to experience for a decade or so, but alas, here we are 😑
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
Putin knows real sanctions like being thrown out of the SWIFT banking system aren't coming because that is how commerce for oil and gas to all countries works. Throw them out of that and Europe would lose half of the oil and gas imports. And, the US would loose the 2 to 4 million barrels a day we import from Russia. Knowing that Biden killed his own oil industry he knows Biden can't do this before the mid-terms and NATO must have their energy supplies.
Plus the low gas prices for the past decade had
Yes, Russia is invading. But, we have no agreement to protect Ukraine and we should not be the world's police. I have no problems stepping in with troops as needed. But, that should not be the first go-to option. Other countries need strong defenses and relying on the US once again will never get us there. US force should come later as a last resort, not as a first resort.

Sanctions are slow: they don't prevent any battle. But over years, sanctions do work wonders. See the break up of the Soviet Union as an example.
Soviets clung to their command economy to the end. This Russian won’t be broken that way. The state is domineering but markets are a go in Russia.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,305
10,803
136
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JPS35

Senior member
Apr 9, 2006
896
80
91
Yes, Russia is invading. But, we have no agreement to protect Ukraine and we should not be the world's police. I have no problems stepping in with troops as needed. But, that should not be the first go-to option. Other countries need strong defenses and relying on the US once again will never get us there. US force should come later as a last resort, not as a first resort.

Sanctions are slow: they don't prevent any battle. But over years, sanctions do work wonders. See the break up of the Soviet Union as an example.
Uhhhh...wrong. This, along with other allies, is exactly what the Budapest Memorandum entails in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,204
3,617
126
Uhhhh...wrong. This, along with other allies, is exactly what the Budapest Memorandum entails in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.
it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties.[1][20] According to Stephen MacFarlane, a professor of international relations, "It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine."[19] In the US, neither the George H. W. Bush administration nor the Clinton administration was prepared to give a military commitment to Ukraine, and they did not believe the US Senate would ratify an international treaty and so the memorandum was adopted in more limited terms.[20]

But unlike Article 5 of the NATO charter, it does not require a specific response from the United States or others.
We can assist militarily. But we aren't obligated to do so.

Or read the text yourself, see point #4. Then look at point #1 to #3 to see what Russia agreed to do.
 
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Reactions: dank69 and Captante

UsandThem

Elite Member
May 4, 2000
16,068
7,380
146
While I won't get into many of the politically complex issues of this action, I will say that in the future any nations that are neighboring a hostile nation, and which moves invasion forces to the border in preparation of a military assault, would be wise to immediately call up all of its reservists and be better prepared.

This really only happened hours before the full invasion started, and there was no way to train/prepare them for what was everyone (obviously) knew what was going to happen once the military buildup on the border began. While Ukraine could not possibly defeat Russia's aggression and its military might, they surely could have made Russia pay a much higher military price / slowed their advance.

Russia's intentions from the start were obvious. If I am a former Soviet Bloc country who does not want to go back under Russian control, I would be preparing for my country's defense immediately, and not waiting to only be forced to do it at the last moment.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,860
20,184
136
What would have been the only shot for Ukraine is to have been more involved with getting into NATO over the last 5 years but we had a president who wanted to dissolve NATO so that was off the table completely. Not like it would have happened for sure but that made it so it couldn't even be considered. If Ukraine was in NATO this wouldn't be happening.

I mean Biden can't start a war with Russia on the ground. I'm not sure what people expecting to do. It's extremely frustrating but cutting Russia off of Swift could be a major repercussion for them.
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
While I won't get into many of the politically complex issues of this action, I will say that in the future any nations that are neighboring a hostile nation, and which moves invasion forces to the border in preparation of a military assault, would be wise to immediately call up all of its reservists and be better prepared.

This really only happened hours before the full invasion started, and there was no way to train/prepare them for what was everyone (obviously) knew what was going to happen once the military buildup on the border began. While Ukraine could not possibly defeat Russia's aggression and its military might, they surely could have made Russia pay a much higher military price / slowed their advance.

Russia's intentions from the start were obvious. If I am a former Soviet Bloc country who does not want to go back under Russian control, I would be preparing for my country's defense immediately, and not waiting to only be forced to do it at the last moment.
The problem is that laypeople are idealists living in ivory towers who do not understand law or politics. RULES ARE ONLY AS GOOD AS THE ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS PRESENT. It’s because of electricity and globalization that non-bloody resource wars can be legitimate alternatives to force.
The countries in NATO are often tiny ass countries that need big powers to bail them out. Estonia has no hope in battling a Russia. Their military only has 6,500 people.

Poland has 65,000 soldiers.

Germany isn’t allowed to have a big military because of WWII.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,860
20,184
136
The problem is that laypeople are idealists living in ivory towers who do not understand law or politics. RULES ARE ONLY AS GOOD AS THE ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS PRESENT. It’s because of electricity and globalization that non-bloody resource wars can be legitimate alternatives to force.
The countries in NATO are often tiny ass countries that need big powers to bail them out. Estonia has no hope in battling a Russia. Their military only has 6,500 people.

Poland has 65,000 soldiers.

Germany isn’t allowed to have a big military because of WWII.

But Ukraine is not in NATO and if Putin dared attack a NATO nation, solid chance we'd be at war right now. Well, since a Dem is president then yes, we would defend a NATO member. Can't say that for the leaders of the GQP though anymore.
 
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Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,305
10,803
136
But Ukraine is not in NATO and if Putin dared attack a NATO nation, solid chance we'd be at war right now. Well, since a Dem is president then yes, we would defend a NATO member. Can't say that for the leaders of the GQP though anymore.

We potentially would be SUPPORTING Putin at this point... no joke!

 

UsandThem

Elite Member
May 4, 2000
16,068
7,380
146
Really fucked up considering the Ukraine leader is of Jewish decent.
Yeah, I was shocked to see the Western social tech companies allowing their official government accounts of Russia to continue to post false propaganda around the globe.

I've seen accounts suspended / blocked for a lot less than that. Really fucking pitiful actually.......
 

13Gigatons

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2005
7,461
500
126
Yeah, I was shocked to see the Western social tech companies allowing their official government accounts of Russia to continue to post false propaganda around the globe.

I've seen accounts suspended / blocked for a lot less than that. Really fucking pitiful actually.......

Twitter is such a joke!!!
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,834
5,447
136
Yeah, I was shocked to see the Western social tech companies allowing their official government accounts of Russia to continue to post false propaganda around the globe.

I've seen accounts suspended / blocked for a lot less than that. Really fucking pitiful actually.......

After Trump, Twitter pretty much said they weren't going to block official government accounts from any country.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
After Trump, Twitter pretty much said they weren't going to block official government accounts from any country.
And yet some sites posting news from within Ukraine have been labeled as 'sensitive'. So one has to click on view to see the profile and all photos and videos
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,516
5,340
136
After Trump, Twitter pretty much said they weren't going to block official government accounts from any country.

Here's the catch: if Twitter cuts off free speech, then they are now the governing judge for the information that hundreds of millions of people have access to. So basically a bunch of nerds (lovingly said) in silicone valley are making decisions on information access globally. Facebook is already scary enough:


The problem then becomes what rules to create & enforce on their respective social media platforms. Hate speech is an obvious one, as anything that can lead to people getting hurt is bad. Social media companies have tried to figure out where to draw the line between free speech & protection; like with Facebook, they now put notifications for articles & content they deem to be anti-COVID-safety. This gets really, really, really tricky tho:

1. What if the Keiv regime really is engaging in genocide? Can Silicone Valley even decide that without fact-checking first? Do some geeks (lovingly said) in a server room somewhere get to decide that? On the flip side, the UN & Nato & whatnot are pretty ineffective against major issues like Russian invading the Ukraine just because Putin wants to exercise his ago. On that tangent, my buddy is from Ukraine & is Russian-Ukrainian. He said when Russia fell, they basically drew lines & included half of native Ukraine & the other half is Russia. He wants his part of the Ukraine to split off & go back to Russian because their families & heritage are Russian, not Ukrainian. It'd be like if the U.S. split & wrapped up California with Mexico, then came back into power & wanted to pull California (Americans) back in...they're not Mexican, they were just bundled in. I had NO IDEA that was the situation because our news never explained that!

2. And what about China? China has millions of Uyghurs in concentration camps & are doing really bad things to them, but the world is forced to turn a blind eye due to economics & politics. We even just hosted the Olympics there! China has bans on certain social media like Facebook & Twitter, but nobody really wants to poke the bear because we do so much business with them. Plus they just lifted the restrictions on Russian wheat exports and are also flying aircraft in Taiwan's airzone.

3. Which also begs the question, should the Unites States be the world's policeman? We spent like $300 million dollars a day for 20 years straight in Afghanistan & it didn't end so well for them OR for us. That's over 2 trillion dollars. Imagine using that money to solve homelessness, help people overcome addiction, pay off ALL private & public student loans (under $140 billion!) to create a bright future for our country through the next generation of kids, setup universal basic healthcare & universal basic income to get people healthy & help lift them out of poverty, bring manufacturing back to America through incentives in order to help us be independent on the global business board, etc. On the flip side, remember what happened last time we ignored what was brewing on the other side of the world? (re: Hitler)

It's a super difficult position to be in. Like when they deplatformed Trump, it was a very sticky legal situation, per the letter of the law:


I feel bad for Twitter...invent a fun platform for people to talk to anyone about anything in real-time worldwide, and then they have to figure out how to handle crazy politicians, war propaganda, etc. Why can't we all just get along?!
 

UsandThem

Elite Member
May 4, 2000
16,068
7,380
146
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vitali-klitschko-wladimir-klitschko-ukraine-russia-kyiv-mayor/
Hall of Fame Ukrainian boxer Vitali Klitschko said he will take up arms to fight Russia as attacks on his homeland have continued. Vitali said he will fight alongside his brother and former heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko, who enlisted earlier this month into the Ukrainian reserve army.

Money and fame (and could easily leave the country), yet still have the gonads to stand and fight for what is right.

Bravo!
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Where are you getting this info from? Making vague statements with no citation or supporting evidence makes your perspective seem a tad skewed.

Have we forgot about the Keystone XL pipeline already? Or the Biden administration holding up new oil and gas drilling permits for "environmental review"?
 
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