In our industry, related to the semiconductor industry, they talk about "S" curves.
Here's a quick youtube thing I found that explains s-curves and how they can be applied to most any industry to explain advancement:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5QmwMZ0voI
If you consider current x86 performance, we're likely just near the knee of the S-curve. Latest performance improvements have been in power consumption, but I believe that is rapidly approaching the top of the curve that IPC * clockspeed have been at for a couple generations. In reality this is a macro-level s-curve made up of smaller s-curves.... for example: 32nm process technology, 22nm process technology and other related s-curves like tri-gate technology. These all build into the larger scale s-curve for x86 performance... IPC * clock speed, power consumption and other high level performance goals.
Realistically, I don't think we'll see a clear uarch jump like netburst to Core. That was an optimization that Intel has under it's belt and likely won't see benefit from again. What we will see is PROCESS related improvements yielding technology that can be utilized for better IPC or higher clocks at the same IPC or lower power consumption for the same IPC. Until we get to quantum computing, we'll continue to see these improvements.
As we move along that path, we may reach a point where the current core pipeline is no longer optimum. It is at this point when we will see a uarch change, but I think there are enough checks and balances in the R&D process at Intel that it won't get to the same scale of massive mis-optimization that Netburst did.
I think we can expect to see small IPC or clock improvements going forwards. I think even power optimization is going to be pretty small post Haswell. Haswell took the last two "big" steps:
- SoC integration at the ULV level, finally moving the chipset to 32nm from 65nm on the desktop level
- Integration at the OS level to execute routine interrupts in 'chunks' to allow the CPU longer "micro-naps"
All levels of optimization are to the point where nothing's easy. Intel is at the point where large R&D efforts are resulting in small gains. I don't really see that changing unless we have a shift in technology that results in a new macro-level s-curve.