Where do you think humanity will be in 5000 years? NOT 50 or 500.

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SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,218
4,446
136
Honestly, if you think about it, look at where humanity was 5000 years ago and look at where we are today. You might think that we have advanced in an almost incomprehensible way, but I'd ask you to look at WHEN most of our advancements took place. As a civilization, I'd say we didn't start advancing rapidly until the Renaissance and even then, most of our huge advances only have come in the past 200 or 300 years.

One of the interesting things to think about is that there could be a knowledge plateau that we will reach soon. It is quite possible that we have already learned most of the knowledge that is easy learn and soon new discoveries are going to slow way down as we start to work on the really hard problems that take centuries to solve. If we hit the knowledge plateau in the year 2020 then the year 7020 might not be all that different then today.
 

MagnusTheBrewer

IN MEMORIAM
Jun 19, 2004
24,135
1,594
126
One of the interesting things to think about is that there could be a knowledge plateau that we will reach soon. It is quite possible that we have already learned most of the knowledge that is easy learn and soon new discoveries are going to slow way down as we start to work on the really hard problems that take centuries to solve. If we hit the knowledge plateau in the year 2020 then the year 7020 might not be all that different then today.

Tell me what evidence do you have that there ever has been or, ever will be a "knowledge plateau?"
 

Linflas

Lifer
Jan 30, 2001
15,395
78
91
I think someone has watched a few too many episodes of Star Trek. People will still be around in 5000 years and not as a cloud of energy like on Star Trek. If you want to pick a piece out of Star Trek that might describe humans in 5000 years, I'd say the Borg would be a good bet -- not that we'd go around and assimilate everything, but I imagine that many people could be enhanced with implants (outside of Hollywood, I mean).

5000 years out is hard to predict, but assuming we don't have a major war or catastrophe which puts us back into the middle ages, I think there are a few safe assumptions. I'd imagine that in 5000 years, all known diseases would be cured and people would be biologically immortal (both should actually happen much sooner, I would imagine, and on eht scale of a few hundred years at most). We should have settlements throughout the solar system and probably around a few nearby stars. I could probably extrapolate a few more predictions as well.

Honestly, if you think about it, look at where humanity was 5000 years ago and look at where we are today. You might think that we have advanced in an almost incomprehensible way, but I'd ask you to look at WHEN most of our advancements took place. As a civilization, I'd say we didn't start advancing rapidly until the Renaissance and even then, most of our huge advances only have come in the past 200 or 300 years. Also, as far as "advancing at a disgusting rate," I'd probably disagree with that statement. I think few of the major technologies today didn't exist 30 or 40 years ago, we've just improved and refined the heck out of them. I can't think of the last time there was a MAJOR discovery that had a profound impact on society in my lifetime; IMO, penicillin was the last huge discovery that had a huge impact on the lives of billions.

First thing I thought of as well so I did a quick search for 3000 BC and here is a bit of what was happening then:

3000 BC: Early agriculture in North Africa
c. 3000 BC: Neolithic period ends
c. 3000 BC: Troy is founded
c. 3000 BC: Stonehenge begins to be built. In its first version, it consists of a circular ditch and bank, with 56 wooden posts.

30th century BC
 

Duddy

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2002
4,675
9
81
I'm counting on first contact way before then. But I just don't know under what circumstance. I know for certain that alien life will be discovered (perhaps just bacteria, maybe more advanced) within this century.

I also predict the slow death of religion over the next 100 years. Most are already in decline (especially Christianity, which is being avoided by new, younger generations due to access of information online and the decline of western culture and values).

Islam will probably last the longest, due to the nature by which it is forced upon children. But they will have the same issue with younger generations who will have a much more robust access to the outside world than their parents.

New discoveries in technology are hard to predict. For now, expect things to get smaller and faster.

One of most major shifts in culture will come about once people will be able to come home, plug in, and experience an alternate virtual life. At that point, predicting the effects of such technology will be hard to imagine.

Within the next 5,000 years, we can expect a massive solar storm. It will cause unprecedented damage to infrastructure and set back humanity for at least 20-30 years.

Unless we are saved by aliens, I'm certain we are f*****.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,662
492
126
Enslaved by thinking machines...

but don't worry eventually humanity will revolt in a Jihad.

And make machines irrelevant when people develop the ability to perform unimaginable calculations in their heads without the aid of machines with the help of a precious spice...
 

Duddy

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2002
4,675
9
81
I guess there is one consensus here. AI will be created. It won't be like SkyNet and go out of control. But it will be able to solve most world issues and even help create new technologies for the betterment of all humanity.
 

Baked

Lifer
Dec 28, 2004
36,152
17
81
At this rate, we won't last another 50 years. Looking at extinction event in the next 20 to 30 years. Nuke everything.
 

BudAshes

Lifer
Jul 20, 2003
13,920
3,203
146
There's a good possibility we will invent worse weapons than nukes and then we will be fucked.
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
I would expect that within 500 (probably less) we would have already had a period where overpopulation is not much of an issue cuz most of the uneducated third-world masses have already starved to death, and the educated (reproducing at maybe current Japanese level rates) living very comfortable lives on far improved renewable energy sources. By 5000 I wouldn't even begin to guess; I think we would be on a level (technologically and intellectually, not some kind of psychic mankind singularity hippie concept) so much higher than today that it would be unimaginable. But not necessarily sci-fi level stuff either, more an evolution of culture that would make us look filthy today.
 

Sonikku

Lifer
Jun 23, 2005
15,752
4,562
136
We will have replicators and enough food and dwellings for everyone to have their fill.




Until we are conquered by Romulans because 99% of the population are lazy liberal socialist bastards.



Way to go Obama.
 

Jeff7

Lifer
Jan 4, 2001
41,599
19
81
wut? I thought that would be in the millions of years, if not more, timescale.

OP: No idea. It's incredibly hard to predict something like that when the scale is 5000 years in the future. I think as soon as we invent truly intelligent AI, it's impossible to predict (singularity). If I had to give an answer, though, I'd say extinct.

EDIT: I take extinct back. I think if we can at least get to Mars and get it colonized (well, we CAN now if we wanted to), we'll be ok.
Once sentient AI is developed, and it's capable of refining itself, we may well become obsolete. But of course, where we go from there depends on how the AI was "raised" - as a military AI, intended to kill things, or something more on the benign/benevolent side? It very well will not have the same requirements or ambitions as us, and it may be perfectly fine with leaving us alone, or even finding some other planet to live on, likely in order to escape destruction at the hands of easily-frightened primates that don't like competition.
Or else it will take after us, and decide to destroy the biggest threat to its own existence. Then it becomes the dominant sentient being on the planet.

Where would our technology go? Hopefully there'll be some means to keep our instinct ahead of our destructive tendencies. Advanced biological weapons, nanotechnology, powerful explosives...all in the hands of a species whose history is one of constant and nearly unbroken fighting and cruelty.


But geez, where could it go besides that? How many things do we have now that were "impossible" 200 years ago? Even shooting for 1000 years from now...so much time.
- Nanotech/cybernetic type augmentation of all major body systems, to the point where the organic components are nearly antiquated in function.
- Aging is effectively stopped, since cells and components can be easily replaced on-the-fly.
- Death of a body occurs only by rare accident, or by choice; death from simple old age is viewed as an ailment of olden times, a result of the crude method that evolution came up with for keeping life going in a hostile environment.
- Development of the ability to "back up" minds leads to the ability to duplicate them. This could be especially interesting, as you could suddenly make new sentiences (yeah, I'm making it a word) in a few minutes. Talking to yourself isn't enough? Now you can form a committee.
- Robotic resource gatherers in the asteroid belt and small moons throughout the Solar System, retrieving particularly useful materials.
- Room-temperature fusion - either by discoveries in physics that enable the neutralization of the repulsion between atoms, or by redefining "room-temperature."
- Everything is a networkable device, part of whatever the Internet is by then.
- We will still be using IPv6.
- FTL communications linkup with sentient probe flotilla orbiting Wolf 359. They never do find any avidence to support the ancient-aliens story of a massacre by cybernetic humanoid invaders.
 

Farang

Lifer
Jul 7, 2003
10,914
3
0
Tell me what evidence do you have that there ever has been or, ever will be a "knowledge plateau?"

If you look throughout history I think you'll find periods of rapid advancement followed by periods of living within that advancement without much progress. As there was a "Bronze Age" and an "Iron Age" maybe there too will be an "Industrial Age" and an "Electronic Age."

Within our lifetimes I think we've seen massive progress in large part due to advances in communication (the internet) and the efficiency of electronic devices (smartphones, tablets, etc). That progress is ongoing but will likely not continue at its current rate.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
This is more like the easy oil age. I don't think there is anything to replace it. Transportation being the most important thing enabled by oil.

Flight was only invented around 1906 and the Model T started production in 1908. In the grand scheme of things we've had this type of mobility for only a short time.

In the time that passed everything has been centralized to reap the benefits of large scale economics and the future is going to be more decentralized.

Natural cities like New York should see a boom while alot of manufactured suburbs that can't actually support a town without cheap oil to transport materials are going to decline.
 

HamburgerBoy

Lifer
Apr 12, 2004
27,112
318
126
This is more like the easy oil age. I don't think there is anything to replace it. Transportation being the most important thing enabled by oil.

Flight was only invented around 1906 and the Model T started production in 1908. In the grand scheme of things we've had this type of mobility for only a short time.

In the time that passed everything has been centralized to reap the benefits of large scale economics and the future is going to be more decentralized.

Natural cities like New York should see a boom while alot of manufactured suburbs that can't actually support a town without cheap oil to transport materials are going to decline.

What makes New York a "natural city"? Is it really all that self-reliant? I would assume it wasn't at all, but I don't know much about it so...
 
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