Discussion Who agrees with me that Missispi might start voting for Democrats?

[Amol S.]

Already the western half of Mississippi is voting mostly for Democrats, and the eastern half has a few counties voting for them as well. If looked back since the 2000 election, and the US Census of 2000, 2010, and 2020, it shows that the number of Non-Hispanic whites are decreasing. Also the number of Asians, Black/African Americans, Native Americans/Alaska Natives, and two or more races, are growing state wide. Since 2000, the number of counties in Mississippi that have been always voting Democrats have been growing, with 2016 as an exception. Some counties this election cycle have started to fall back to Democrats in the 2020 presidential elections.

Bellow is a table based of the information from the US Censuses

Race	2000	2010	2020
White (non-hispanic)	61.4%	59.5%	56.4%
Black/African American	36.3%	37.3%	37.8%
Asian	0.7%	0.9%	1.1%
Native American or Alaskan Native	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%
Pacific Islander	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.1%
Two or more races	0.7%	1.1%	1.3%
Hispanic or Latino	1.4%	2.5%	3.4%

The following are thumbnails of the election results by vote share from the 2000 election to the 2020 election.
←2000 ←2004 ←2008 ←2012 ←2016 ←2020

Census data:
2000: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/tabl...d=DECENNIALDPCD110H2000.DP1&hidePreview=false
2010: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?g=0400000US28&y=2010&tid=ACSDP1Y2010.DP05&hidePreview=false
2020: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MS,US/PST045219
Maps:
Wikimedia/Wikipedia

 

[SmCaudata]

16 point differential is a lot to make up. Of the deep south is probably closest, but I think Texas will flip before MS.

 

[Amol S.]

16 point differential is a lot to make up. Of the deep south is probably closest, but I think Texas will flip before MS.

I don't think Texas can flip. The minority-majority in the big cities may have reached thier maximum point. Majority of Texas is in its many sqaure shaped rural counites in the state, most of which are all Republicans.

 

[Indus]

I don't think Texas can flip. The minority-majority in the big cities may have reached thier maximum point. Majority of Texas is in its many sqaure shaped rural counites in the state, most of which are all Republicans.

Yes people moving changes voting patterns but honestly you have an easier time to change say Montana than Texas because of the amount of people needed.. however there aren't many people moving to Montana!

 

[iRONic]

Alabama falls into the room, dropping his jar of 'shine on the floor-- "Ya'll talkin about me again?!?!

 

[Commodus]

It probably won't happen for a while, but I could see it happen as the population becomes more diverse and modernizes its ideas.

Republicans aren't just gerrymandering and imposing draconian voting laws to hold on to office in the short term. To some degree, it's an acknowledgment that demographics are increasingly going against them. It's conceivable that Republicans might routinely suffer dramatic election losses in a decade or two if they don't change their policies.

It's like a kid putting off their homework until the last minute. They don't want to deal with the unpleasantness, and don't fully grasp that it'll be so much worse the longer they delay.

 

[nickqt]

If we ever enter an age where the Democratic Party is the sane conservative party, with a minority progressive party to the left, then perhaps. But not until the Republican Party has been destroyed, internally.

 

[Linux23]

It probably won't happen for a while, but I could see it happen as the population becomes more diverse and modernizes its ideas.

Republicans aren't just gerrymandering and imposing draconian voting laws to hold on to office in the short term. To some degree, it's an acknowledgment that demographics are increasingly going against them. It's conceivable that Republicans might routinely suffer dramatic election losses in a decade or two if they don't change their policies.

It's like a kid putting off their homework until the last minute. They don't want to deal with the unpleasantness, and don't fully grasp that it'll be so much worse the longer they delay.

They only have one policy. Hate and fear.

 

[Sunburn74]

I don't think Texas can flip. The minority-majority in the big cities may have reached thier maximum point. Majority of Texas is in its many sqaure shaped rural counites in the state, most of which are all Republicans.

Actually the majority texas lives in its cities. The issue is that in general its cities aren't really all that blue whilst its counties are blazing red. Also pretty much all the population growth in texas is occurring in urban centers and the people moving there are coming from blue states. Texas may flip next election cycle if you look at the shrinking margins of defeat.

 

[Amol S.]

Yes people moving changes voting patterns but honestly you have an easier time to change say Montana than Texas because of the amount of people needed.. however there aren't many people moving to Montana!

The Texas panhandle is like 100K votes or more. The margin to which Biden lost is massive in the 100Ks in Texas.

 

[Amol S.]

Actually the majority texas lives in its cities. The issue is that in general its cities aren't really all that blue whilst its counties are blazing red. Also pretty much all the population growth in texas is occurring in urban centers and the people moving there are coming from blue states. Texas may flip next election cycle if you look at the shrinking margins of defeat.

You are somewhat right.

 

[cliftonite]

The Texas panhandle is like 100K votes or more. The margin to which Biden lost is massive in the 100Ks in Texas.

It will probably take 12-16 years before Texas is truly competitive.

 

[Fenixgoon]

The Texas panhandle is like 100K votes or more. The margin to which Biden lost is massive in the 100Ks in Texas.

It will probably take 12-16 years before Texas is truly competitive.

Stacey Abrams and crew registered 800k voters between 2016 and 2020. Find another Stacey Abrams in Texas.

Just need a better ground game

 

[Sunburn74]

The Texas panhandle is like 100K votes or more. The margin to which Biden lost is massive in the 100Ks in Texas.

It's really not though. 500000 votes +trump in a state that cast over 10 million. Lost by 6%.

Compare to say south Carolina where graham won by over 10% or alabama. 6% is considered competitive.

Also you have to look at the trends. In a race with record republican motivation and record republican turnout they lost by 6%. In Cruz's last race he won by 3% and when trump faced Hilary in 2016 he won by 8%. For reference I think bush jr won texas by 20% when he ran last.