Who Do You Think Will Win Iowa?

[SandEagle]

MSNBC has this poll running
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/03/9920475-live-vote-predict-the-winner

 

[PottedMeat]

Riiight.

'colorado: keepin the fatties out'

'mississippi: NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM"

 

[werepossum]

MSNBC has this poll running
http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/03/9920475-live-vote-predict-the-winner

Paul does great at Internet polls because his constituency tends to be young (and therefore reasonably tech savvy) and very motivated. They are not however scientifically useful.

EDIT: Um, I mean Internet polls are not scientifically useful, not Ron Paul supporters.

 

[airdata]

Paul does great at Internet polls because his constituency tends to be young (and therefore reasonably tech savvy) and very motivated. They are not however scientifically useful.

EDIT: Um, I mean Internet polls are not scientifically useful, not Ron Paul supporters.

What polls are accurate? Phone polls?

 

[werepossum]

What polls are accurate? Phone polls?

I believe the most accurate are telephone polls which are then weighted by political registration and past voter turnout. One big difference between phone polls and Internet polls is that you can't notify others to take a phone poll, so self-selection bias is eliminated. Of course, no polls are completely reliable, but blind call phone polls eliminate the known biases of Internet polls. The remaining difficulty is how to properly weight the poll.

 

[TalonStrike]

lol these Iowa caucuses are so ridiculously low-tech and undemocratic.

 

[nageov3t]

lol these Iowa caucuses are so ridiculously low-tech and undemocratic.

maybe I'll edit this in a couple hours, but I can't think of a single time -- between either party -- where the Iowa caucuses voted for the best candidate (at least in any contested race)

 

[dmcowen674]

Has Ron Paul won a state this big before?

 

[Anarchist420]

Dr. Paul can claim victory if the entrance polls are anything to go by. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/iowa-caucus-jan-3/entrance-polls

Romney's numbers are actually quite pitiful considering the effort he's put into it but that's what happens when you propose tax increases as he has done.

I'm not surprised about Santorum's numbers not living up to the hype.

 

[nageov3t]

Has Ron Paul won a state before?

fixed

 

[TalonStrike]

Has Ron Paul won a state this big before?

No, Ron Paul has not won anything before. This would be his first accomplishment.

 

[senseamp]

Either a loser or a liberal. Either way, I am OK

 

[senseamp]

That map doesn't really disprove what he was saying. Iowa looks relatively healthy compared to a lot of other states.

But cities are healthier than rural areas on the map. Someone is getting high off their own supply

 

[guyver01]

Dr. Paul can claim victory if the entrance polls are anything to go by. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/iowa-caucus-jan-3/entrance-polls

Total Respondents

710



racist paul can't claim anything other than having the dumbest fan base.

 

[SilthDraeth]

I believe the most accurate are telephone polls which are then weighted by political registration and past voter turnout. One big difference between phone polls and Internet polls is that you can't notify others to take a phone poll, so self-selection bias is eliminated. Of course, no polls are completely reliable, but blind call phone polls eliminate the known biases of Internet polls. The remaining difficulty is how to properly weight the poll.

On that note, how many people have phones anymore? Considering it is landlines vs cell phones. I would say most people with landlines are old folks, and as far as I know, they only call landlines for telephone polls.

 

[soundforbjt]

Paul's in second, behind Santorum, Willard's @ 3rd.

 

[SilthDraeth]

I can't believe how good Rick Santorum appears to be doing, at least at this point. The guy is a complete fear mongering nutcase. Talk about being racist.

 

[nageov3t]

I can't believe how good Rick Santorum appears to be doing, at least at this point. The guy is a complete fear mongering nutcase. Talk about being racist.

he's been polling so low up till now that I think everyone just ignored him.

I don't expect he could stand up for more than a week in the national spotlight.

 

[SilthDraeth]

he's been polling so low up till now that I think everyone just ignored him.

I don't expect he could stand up for more than a week in the national spotlight.

It just amazes me that he would get the vote he is getting. I have family that I would consider very strongly religious, but they are libertarian, and would never vote for someone like Santorum or Bachman.

 

[SilthDraeth]

Oh, btw, so Iowa holds caucus first, but they don't actually give electorates until later... And with the new change where you get a percentage base, does that mean that:
Lets say Iowa had 100 electorates, and Ron Paul and Romney both get 25% of the vote, does that mean they each only get 25 electorates? And the other candidates split their smaller % of electorates?

 

[Schadenfroh]

'colorado: keepin the fatties out'

'mississippi: NOM NOM NOM NOM NOM"

Soul food is fucking delicious

 

[chowderhead]

Oh, btw, so Iowa holds caucus first, but they don't actually give electorates until later... And with the new change where you get a percentage base, does that mean that:
Lets say Iowa had 100 electorates, and Ron Paul and Romney both get 25% of the vote, does that mean they each only get 25 electorates? And the other candidates split their smaller % of electorates?

It's all about expectations in these early states. Very rarely does it get into a delegate fight like in 2008 with Clinton/Obama. Generally, the person who can win the expectation game can spin the media coverage and money/fundraising. The Republicans used to have lots of winner takes all primaries i.e. McCain would win about 35% of the vote and get all the delegates. The Republicans changed that for 2012 so most of the upcoming contests will be proportional. It's just a matter of getting to that that point. South Carolina and Florida look to be very important (Florida will be winner takes all) since the South is vital to the Republican base. Romney is doing worse than he got in 2008. That is bad for him and very chaotic.

 

[SandEagle]

no photo ID required to vote in Iowa caucus?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brad-friedman/republicans-require-no-ph_b_1173283.html

anyone can go in and vote again and again and again.

Ron Paul has a double-digit lead over Romney in many online polls. if he does not win, we know that the voting system is rigged

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally Posted by dmcowen674
Has Ron Paul won a state this big before?

No, Ron Paul has not won anything before. This would be his first accomplishment.

Really wow, he won easily and big

Congrats

Now his supporters have to hope he doesn't do a Dean scream.

 

[chowderhead]

no photo ID required to vote in Iowa caucus?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brad-friedman/republicans-require-no-ph_b_1173283.html

anyone can go in and vote again and again and again.

Ron Paul has a double-digit lead over Romney in many online polls. if he does not win, we know that the voting system is rigged

they close the door and make you listen to speeches before you are allowed to vote. Then, they do party business such as selecting delegates to state conventions, etc. There is very little chance to vote twice. You also have to sign in and give your address Online polls are worthless as it is self-selecting and it is these online polls where people can vote over and over again.